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The production of palm oil, soy, beef and timber are key drivers of global forest loss. For this reason, over 470 companies involved in the production, processing or distribution of these commodities have issued commitments to eliminate or reduce deforestation from their supply chains. However, the effectiveness of these commitments is uncertain since there is considerable variation in ambition and scope and there are no globally agreed definitions of what constitutes a forest. Many commitments identify high conservation value forests (HCVFs), high carbon stock forests (HCSFs) and forests on tropical peatland as priority areas for conservation. This allows for mapping of the global extent of forest areas classified as such, to achieve an assessment of the area that may be at reduced risk of development if companies comply with their zero deforestation commitments. Depending on the criteria used, the results indicate that between 34% and 74% of global forests qualify as either HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland. However, we found that the total extent of these forest areas varies widely depending on the choice of forest map. Within forests which were not designated as HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland, there is substantial overlap with areas that are highly suitable for agricultural development. Since these areas are unlikely to be protected by zero-deforestation commitments, they may be subject to increased pressure resulting from leakage of areas designated as HCVF, HCSF and tropical peatland forests. Considerable uncertainties around future outcomes remain, since only a proportion of the global market is currently covered by corporate commitments. Further work is needed to map the synergies between corporate commitments and government policies on land use. In addition, standardized criteria for delineating forests covered by the commitments are recommended.

AbstractWe quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.

Abstract The eddy heat flux generated by statistically equilibrated baroclinic turbulence supported on a uniform, horizontal temperature gradient is examined using a two-layer β-plane quasigeostrophic model. The dependence of the eddy diffusivity of temperature, Dτ, on external parameters such as β, bottom friction κ, the deformation radius λ, and the velocity jump 2U, is provided by numerical simulations at 110 different points in the parameter space β* = βλ2/U and κ* = κλ/U. There is a special “pivot” value of β*, βpiv* ≈ 11/16, at which Dτ depends weakly on κ*. But otherwise Dτ has a complicated dependence on both β* and κ*, highlighted by the fact that reducing κ* leads to increases (decreases) in Dτ if β is less than (greater than) βpiv*. Existing heat-flux parameterizations, based on Kolmogorov cascade theories, predict that Dτ is nonzero and independent of κ* in the limit κ* → 0. Simulations show indications of this regime provided that κ* ≤ 0.04 and 0.25 ≤ β* ≤ 0.5. All important length scales in this problem, namely the mixing length, the scale of the energy containing eddies, the Rhines scale, and the spacing of the zonal jets, converge to a common value as bottom friction is reduced. The mixing length and jet spacing do not decouple in the parameter regime considered here, as predicted by cascade theories. The convergence of these length scales is due to the formation of jet-scale eddies that align along the eastward jets. The baroclinic component of these eddies helps force the zonal mean flow, which occurs through nonzero Reynolds stress correlations in the upper layer, as opposed to the barotropic mode. This behavior suggests that the dynamics of the inverse barotropic cascade are insufficient to fully describe baroclinic turbulence.

AbstractSmart meter roll-outs provide easy access to granular meter measurements, enabling advanced energy services, ranging from demand response measures, tailored energy feedback and smart home/building automation. To design such services, train and validate models, access to data that resembles what is expected of smart meters, collected in a real-world setting, is necessary. The REFIT electrical load measurements dataset described in this paper includes whole house aggregate loads and nine individual appliance measurements at 8-second intervals per house, collected continuously over a period of two years from 20 houses. During monitoring, the occupants were conducting their usual routines. At the time of publishing, the dataset has the largest number of houses monitored in the United Kingdom at less than 1-minute intervals over a period greater than one year. The dataset comprises 1,194,958,790 readings, that represent over 250,000 monitored appliance uses. The data is accessible in an easy-to-use comma-separated format, is time-stamped and cleaned to remove invalid measurements, correctly label appliance data and fill in small gaps of missing data.

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.