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Spatial planning has to deal with trade-offs between various stakeholders’ wishes and needs as part of planning and management of landscapes, natural resources and/or biodiversity. To make ecosystem services (ES) trade-off research more relevant for spatial planning, we propose an analytical framework,which puts stakeholders, their land-use/management choices, their impact on ES and responses at the centre. Based on 24 cases from around the world, we used this framing to analyse the appearance and diversity of real-world ES trade-offs. They cover a wide range of trade-offs related to ecosystem use, including: land-use change, management regimes, technical versus nature-based solutions, natural resource use, and management of species. The ES trade-offs studied featured a complexity that was far greater than what is often described in the ES literature. Influential users and context setters are at the core of the trade-off decision-making, but most of the impact is felt by non-influential users. Provisioning and cultural ES were the most targeted in the studied trade-offs, but regulating ES were the most impacted. Stakeholders’ characteristics, such as influence, impact faced, and concerns can partially explain their position and response in relation to trade-offs. Based on the research findings, we formulate recommendations for spatial planning.

Die Doktorarbeit studiert unendliche Ensembles gewöhnlicher Differentialgleichungen mit gemeinsamen Monotonieeigenschaften, wie sie in der Nachhaltigkeitsforschung auftreten. Es werden neue Verfahren zur Behandlung von solchen Ensembles entwickelt und zur modellgestützen analyse verschiedener Problemen des nachhaltigen Umgangs mit natürlichen Ressourcen erprobt. Qualitative Differentialgleichungen (QDEs) und Differentialinklusionen werden in den neu formalisierten Rahmen der Modellensembles eingebettet. Darunter versteht man eine Menge von Funktionen auf einem Zustandsraum, die Anfangswertprobleme definieren. Für eine QDE schreibt man eine Matrix von Vorzeichen vor und erhält als Modellensemble die Menge aller Funktionen, bei denen die Einträge der Jacobimatrix dem Vorzeichen nach der vorgeschriebenen Matrix entsprechen. Angewendet werden die neuen Methoden auf die Armuts- Degradations-Spirale in Entwicklungsländern, Fischereimanagement (insbesondere industrialisierte Hochseefischerei und partizipatorische Managementansätze), sowie Wassermanagement zur Vermeidung von Eutrophierung. Derartige Anwendung stellen besondere anforderungen an die Modellierung, insbesondere Unsicherheiten im Wissen und der Bedarf nach verallgemeinerbaren Resultaten. Es wird gezeigt, dass Modellensembles hierfür geeignet sind. Basierend auf der neu eingeführten graphentheoretischen Formulierung von QDEs werden vier innovative Verfahren zum Umgang mit großen QDEs entwickelt. Hierbei wird die Viabilitätstheorie begrifflich wie methodisch für Abstraktions- und Restriktionsverfahren eingesetzt. (i) Die graphentheoretische Fassung viabler Mengen führt zur No-return Abstraktion, die einen engen Bezug zu starken Zusammenhangskomponenten aufweist. Damit lassen sich Zustandsgraphen aggregiert darstellen und bezüglich Nachhaltigkeitsfragen evaluieren. (ii) Die Restriktion der zulässigen Lösungen erlaubt es, Kanten von untergeordneter Bedeutung aus dem Zustandsgraphen zu eliminieren. (iii) Die Restriktion auf Systeme, bei denen die Einträge der Jacobimatrix eine vorgegebene partielle Ordnung aufweisen, ermöglicht die Elimination weiterer Pfade. (iv) Zuletzt werden Intervallschranken für die Einträge der Jacobimatrix berücksichtigt. Die Anwendungen zeigen, dass mit diesen Methoden neue und robuste Eigenschaften auch sehr allgemeiner Modelle zum Management natürlicher Ressourcen gewonnen werden können. Ihre Stärken für den Entwurf alternativen Politikoptionen werden deutlich. The thesis studies infinite ensembles of ordinary differential equations with common monotonicity properties as they typically appear in sustainability research. New methods to process such ensembles are developed and applied for the model-based analysis of different sustainable resource use problems. Qualitative differential equations (QDEs) and differential inclusions are embedded into the new formal framework of model ensembles. A model ensemble is defined as a set of functions on a state space which specify initial value problems. For a QDE a matrix of signs is prescribed, and the model ensemble is the set of all functions where the coefficients of the Jacobian have the same signs as the coefficients of the prescribed matrix. The new methods are applied to the impoverishment-degradation spiral in developing countries, to fisheries management (in particular industrialised deep-sea fishery and participatory management), and to water management to avoid eutrophication. These applications pose special challenges for modelling, in particular knowledge uncertainties and the demand for generalisable results. It is shown that model ensembles are adequate for these challenges. Based on a new graph theoretical formulation of QDEs, four innovative techniques for the analysis of large QDEs are developed. For that, viability theory is used conceptually and methodologically for abstraction and restriction techniques. (i) The graph theoretical formulation of viable sets leads to the no-return abstraction, which is closely related to strongly connected components. This makes it possible to display large state-transition graphs in an aggregated way and to evaluate them with respect to sustainability criteria. (ii) By restricting the set of admissible solutions, edges with limited relevance can be eliminated from the state-transition graph. (iii) By restricting the model ensemble to systems where the coefficients of the Jacobian have a prescribed partial order, further paths can be eliminated. (iv) Finally, interval bounds for the coefficients of the Jacobian are considered. The applications show that the new methods strongly improve the identification of new and robust properties of very general models about the management of natural resources. Their advantages for the design of alternative policy options become clear. Front Matter: Title page, Preface, Contents, Notations and Concepts 1\. Introduction 2\. Qualitative Reasoning with Model Ensembles 2.1 Model Ensembles and Set-Valued Solution Operators 2.2 Qualitative Differential Equations 2.3 Differential Inclusions 2.4 Viability Theory 3\. Abstraction and Restriction Techniques 3.1 No-Return Abstraction 3.2 Marginal Edges 3.3 Ordinal Assumptions 3.4 Quantitative Bounds 4\. Management of Natural Resources 4.1 Land-Use Changes in Developing Countries 4.2 Capital Accumulation in Unregulated Fisheries 4.3 Participatory Fishery Management 4.4 Lake Management 5\. Conclusions Annex: Model Code Back Matter: Bibliography, Lebenslauf, Zusammenfassung

Seaweed assemblages represent the dominant autotrophic biomass in many coastal environments, playing a central structural and functional role in several ecosystems. In Europe, seaweed assemblages are highly diverse systems. The combined seaweed flora of different European regions hold around 1550 species (belonging to nearly 500 genera), with new species continuously uncovered, thanks to the emergence of molecular tools. In this manuscript we review the effects of global and local stressors on European seaweeds, their communities, and ecosystem functioning. Following a brief review on the present knowledge on European seaweed diversity and distribution, and the role of seaweed communities in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, we discuss the effects of biotic homogenization (invasive species) and global climate change (shifts in bioclimatic zones and ocean acidification) on the distribution of individual species and their effect on the structure and functioning of seaweed communities. The arrival of new introduced species (that already account for 5–10% of the European seaweeds) and the regional extirpation of native species resulting from oceans' climate change are creating new diversity scenarios with undetermined functional consequences. Anthropogenic local stressors create additional disruption often altering dramatically assemblage's structure. Hence, we discuss ecosystem level effects of such stressors like harvesting, trampling, habitat modification, overgrazing and eutrophication that impact coastal communities at local scales. Last, we conclude by highlighting significant knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to anticipate the combined effects of global and local stressors on seaweed communities. With physical and biological changes occurring at unexpected pace, marine phycologists should now integrate and join their research efforts to be able to contribute efficiently for the conservation and management of coastal systems.

Abstract Plant species that expand their range in response to current climate change will encounter soil communities that may hinder, allow or even facilitate plant performance. It has been shown repeatedly for plant species originating from other continents that these plants are less hampered by soil communities from the new than from the original range. However, information about the interactions between intra‐continental range expanders and soil communities is sparse, especially at community level. Here we used a plant–soil feedback experiment approach to examine if the interactions between range expanders and soil communities change during range expansion. We grew communities of range‐expanding and native plant species with soil communities originating from the original and new range of range expanders. In these conditioned soils, we determined the composition of fungi and bacteria by high‐throughput amplicon sequencing of the ITS region and the 16S rRNA gene respectively. Nematode community composition was determined by microscopy‐based morphological identification. Then we tested how these soil communities influence the growth of subsequent communities of range expanders and natives. We found that after the conditioning phase soil bacterial, fungal and nematode communities differed by origin and by conditioning plant communities. Despite differences in bacterial, fungal and nematode communities between original and new range, soil origin did not influence the biomass production of plant communities. Both native and range expanding plant communities produced most above‐ground biomass in soils that were conditioned by plant communities distantly related to them. Synthesis. Communities of range‐expanding plant species shape specific soil communities in both original and new range soil. Plant–soil interactions of range expanders in communities can be similar to the ones of their closely related native plant species.

We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. © 2020 The Authors

Marginal farm land is land characterised by low food, feed and fodder crop productivity due to soil and environmental limitations. Such land may however be utilised for bio-energy crop production. We investigate the economic viability of small scale combined heat and power anaerobic digestion (CHP AD) projects based on feedstock from farm waste and bio-energy crops grown on a representative temperate latitude marginal farm land in the UK. Using a realistic set of five project feedstock-mix scenarios, and considering standard technology and current market and policy regimes, we deploy a stochastic framework to assess prices of electricity required for these projects to break-even and conduct sensitivity analyses of key project parameters. Accounting for the current market prices and policy tariffs for heat, we find that critical electricity sale prices of about 17.46 p/kWh to 27.12 p/kWh are needed for the projects to break even. These prices are well above the current combined feed-in-tariff support and market prices for electricity over the past years in the UK. We conclude that the use of marginal land to generate power for export using small-scale CHP AD in the UK and the wider temperate latitude countries is unviable, if energy and farming policy regimes do not provide substantial support.