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Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Ragweed allergy is a major public health concern. Within Europe, ragweed is an introduced species and research has indicated that the amounts of ragweed pollen are likely to increase over Europe due to climate change, with corresponding increases in ragweed allergy. To address this threat, improving our understanding of predisposing factors for allergic sensitisation to ragweed and disease is necessary, specifically focusing upon factors that are potentially modifiable (i.e., environmental). In this study, a total of 4013 children aged 2–13 years were recruited across Croatia to undergo skin prick tests to determine sensitisation to ragweed and other aeroallergens. A parental questionnaire collected home environment, lifestyle, family and personal medical history, and socioeconomic information. Environmental variables were obtained using Geographical Information Systems and data from nearby pollen, weather, and air pollution stations. Logistic regression was performed (clustered on school) focusing on risk factors for allergic sensitisation and disease. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen at levels over 5000 grains m–3 year−1 and, above these levels, the risk of sensitisation was 12–16 times greater than in low pollen areas with about 400 grains m–3 year−1. Genetic factors were strongly associated with sensitisation but nearly all potentially modifiable factors were insignificant. This included measures of local land use and proximity to potential sources of ragweed pollen. Rural residence was protective (odds ratio (OR) 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55–0.98), but the factors underlying this association were unclear. Being sensitised to ragweed doubled (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.59–2.96) the risk of rhinoconjunctivitis. No other potentially modifiable risk factors were associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Ragweed sensitisation was strongly associated with ragweed pollen, and sensitisation was significantly associated with rhinoconjunctivitis. Apart from ragweed pollen levels, few other potentially modifiable factors were significantly associated with ragweed sensitisation. Hence, strategies to lower the risk of sensitisation should focus upon ragweed control.

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive plant with allergenic pollen. Due to environmental changes, ragweed pollen (RWP) airborne concentrations are predicted to quadruple in Europe by 2050 and more than double allergic sensitization of Europeans by 2060. We developed an experimental RWP model of allergy in BALB/c mice to evaluate how the number of RWP and how RWP collected from different geographical environments influence disease. We administered RWP six times over 3 weeks intranasally to the mice and then evaluated disease parameters 72 h later or allowed the mice to recover for at least 90 days before rechallenging them with RWP to elicit a disease relapse. Doses over 300 pollen grains induced lung eosinophilia. Higher doses of 3,000 and 30,000 pollen grains increased both eosinophils and neutrophils and induced disease relapses. RWP harvested from diverse geographical regions induced a spectrum of allergic lung disease from mild inflammation to moderate eosinophilic and severe mixed eosinophilic-neutrophilic lung infiltrates. After a recovery period, mice rechallenged with pollen developed a robust disease relapse. We found no correlation between Amb a 1 content, the major immunodominant allergen, endotoxin content, or RWP structure with disease severity. These results demonstrate that there is an environmental impact on RWP with clinical consequences that may underlie the increasing sensitization rates and the severity of pollen-induced disease exacerbation in patients. The multitude of diverse environmental factors governing distinctive patterns of disease induced by RWP remains unclear. Further studies are necessary to elucidate how the environment influences the complex interaction between RWP and human health.

There has been considerable progress in elucidating the physical aspects of climate change that directly impact food, feed, and fiber production. However, these impact assessments rarely account for climate induced changes associated with biological pests. The lack of collaboration between the pest management and climate science disciplines could be contributing to the problem. Therefore, we assessed research-based relationships, identifying possible barriers to and gaps in successful collaboration. We developed an algorithm capable of identifying author affiliation and associated disciplines. We found that pest management and climate scientists most often authored papers in their respective disciplines (>90%), but rarely in the opposing disciplines (<1%). Atopica, an international research group, is one of the few examples of how interdisciplinary collaborations have led to the co-production of knowledge to better understand and manage a pest responding to climate change. Researcher-to-researcher relationships, as demonstrated by Atopica, are an often overlooked area of science and key to solving major societal challenges.