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In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Crossed effects between climate change and chemical pollutions were identified on community structure and ecosystem functioning. Temperature rising affects the toxic properties of pollutants and the sensitiveness of organisms to chemicals stress. Inversely, chemical exposure may decrease the capacity of organisms to respond to environmental changes. The aim of our study was to assess the individual and crossed effects of temperature rising and pesticide contamination on fish. Goldfish, Carassius auratus, were exposed during 96 h at two temperatures (22 and 32 °C) to a mixture of common pesticides (S-metolachlor, isoproturon, linuron, atrazine-desethyl, aclonifen, pendimethalin, and tebuconazol) at two environmentally relevant concentrations (total concentrations MIX1 = 8.4 μg L(-1) and MIX2 = 42 μg L(-1)). We investigated the sediment reworking behavior, which has a major ecological functional role. We also focused on three physiological traits from the cellular up to the whole individual level showing metabolic status of fish (protein concentration in liver and muscle, hepatosomatic index, and Fulton's condition factor). Individual thermal stress and low concentrations of pesticides decreased the sediment reworking activity of fish and entrained metabolic compensation with global depletion in energy stores. We found that combined chemical and thermal stresses impaired the capacity of fish to set up an efficient adaptive response. Our results strongly suggest that temperature will make fish more sensitive to water contamination by pesticides, raising concerns about wild fish conservation submitted to global changes.

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.

All data were generated by the authors. All individuals identifying invertebrates had over 10 years of experience and hold the Natural History Museum IdQ EO62 Identification of Freshwater Macroinvertebrate Species. All data produced were checked for errors before data was accepted. As chemical data were generated, checks were made to ensure accuracy (certified reference materials) and precision (repeat measurements) were within accepted tolerance limits. We also ensured measured values fit within those of calibration standards and, if necessary, re-analysed samples diluted to fall within the calibration range. For data generated via mass spectrometry, beam areas of all measured mass-to-charge ratios were corrected for drift offline using control standards. All data were checked to ensure reported values were above the detection limit of the method. All calculations were checked for errors before data was accepted. The dataset contains measurements of the annual average abundance, biomass and elemental composition (C, N, P) of consumers (fish and invertebrates) in six rivers within sub-catchments of the Hampshire Avon of contrasting geology (clay, sand, chalk).

AbstractThe hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change‐mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large‐scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near‐stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near‐stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time‐dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.

AbstractWater scarcity is a serious issue on many small coral islands, including the Spermonde Archipelago in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. An important driver behind it is population growth. Additionally, the predicted impacts of climate change will further accelerate the problem. While a lot of scientific attention has been paid to water scarcity in the Pacific, little is known about the situation in Indonesia. The paper presents the results of the first scientific study on water scarcity in an Indonesian Archipelago. It combines an analysis of historical and contemporary documents with a study about local perceptions on water scarcity. 160 people on four case study islands were interviewed about water availability and quality in the past and at present. The results show that although water scarcity is not a new issue, it has increased from the 1960s onwards. Possible anthropogenic and natural drivers behind this development are discussed, and management implications presented. It is argued that management measures need to be island-specific and require local institutions for water management.

Science-based, multinational management of the Baltic Sea offers lessons on amelioration of highly disturbed marine ecosystems.