• Energy Research
• 15. Life on land close
• 2. Zero hunger close
• BE close
• European Marine Science close

Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connected: Sea ice decline is one of the main causes of the rapid warming of the Arctic, and the flow of carbon from rivers into the Arctic Ocean affects marine processes and the air-sea exchange of CO2. This review, therefore, provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycle, connections in between, and how this complex system is affected by climate change and a declining cryosphere. Ultimately, better knowledge of biogeochemical processes combined with improved model representations of ocean-land interactions are essential to accurately predict the development of arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks.

Atypical fish diversity gradients suggest a recent formation of the Amazon system such as we know it today.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth, but its palaeoenvironmental history south of 63° latitude is relatively poorly documented, relying principally on the marine geological record and short ice cores. In this paper, we present evidence of late-Quaternary environmental change from the Marguerite Bay region combining data from lake sediment records on Horseshoe Island and Pourquoi-Pas Island, and raised beaches at Horseshoe Island, Pourquoi-Pas Island and Calmette Bay. Lake sediments were radiocarbon dated and analysed using a combination of sedimentological, geochemical and microfossil methods. Raised beaches were surveyed and analysed for changes in clast composition, size and roundness. Results suggest a non-erosive glacial regime could have existed on Horseshoe Island from 35,780 (38,650–33,380) or 32,910 (34,630–31,370) cal yr BP onwards. There is radiocarbon and macrofossil evidence for possible local deglaciation events at 28,830 (29,370–28,320) cal yr BP, immediately post-dating Antarctic Isotopic Maximum 4, and 21,110 (21,510–20,730 interpolated) cal yr BP coinciding with, or immediately post-dating, Antarctic Isotopic Maximum 2. The Holocene deglaciation of Horseshoe Island commenced from 10,610 (11,000–10,300) cal yr BP at the same time as the early Holocene temperature maximum recorded in Antarctic ice cores. This was followed by the onset of marine sedimentation in The Narrows, Pourquoi-Pas Island, before 8850 (8480–9260) cal yr BP. Relative sea level high stands of 40.79 m above present at Pourquoi-Pas Island and 40.55 m above present at Calmette Bay occurred sometime after 9000 cal yr BP and suggest that a thicker ice sheet, including grounded ice streams, was present in this region of the Antarctic Peninsula than that recorded at sites further north. Isolation of the Narrows Lake basin on Pourquoi-Pas Island shows relative sea level in this region had fallen rapidly to 19.41 m by 7270 (7385–7155) cal yr BP. Chaetoceros resting spores suggest high productivity and stratified surface waters in The Narrows after 8850 (9260–8480) cal yr BP and beach clasts provide evidence of a period of increased wave energy at approximately 8000 yr BP. Lake sediment and beach data suggest an extended period of regional warming sometime between 6200 and 2030 cal yr BP followed by the onset of Neoglacial conditions from 2630 and 2030 cal yr BP in Narrows Lake and Col Lake 1, respectively. Diatom and δ13C vs C/N and macrofossil evidence suggest a potential increase in the number of birds and seals visiting the Narrows Lake catchment sometime after 2100 (2250–2000) cal yr BP, with enhanced nutrient enrichment evident after 1150 (1230–1080) cal yr BP, and particularly from c. 460 (540–380) cal yr BP. A very recent increase in Gomphonema species and organic carbon in the top centimetre of the Narrows Lake sediment core after c. 410 (490–320) cal yr BP, and increased sedimentation rates in the Col Lake 1 sediment core, after c. 400 (490–310) cal yr BP may be a response to the regional late-Holocene warming of the Antarctic Peninsula.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.