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As Earth’s climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that 'safe-operating spaces' are unlikely to be quantifiable.

The earth is warming at an alarming rate, especially in the Arctic, where a marked decline in sea ice cover may have far-ranging consequences for endemic species. Little auks, endemic Arctic seabirds, are key bioindicators as they forage in the marginal ice zone and feed preferentially on lipid-rich Arctic copepods and ice-associated amphipods sensitive to the consequences of global warming. We tested how little auks cope with an ice-free foraging environment during the breeding season. To this end, we took advantage of natural variation in sea ice concentration along the east coast of Greenland. We compared foraging and diving behaviour, chick diet and growth and adult body condition between two years, in the presence versus nearby absence of sea ice in the vicinity of their breeding site. Moreover, we sampled zooplankton at sea when sea ice was absent to evaluate prey location and little auk dietary preferences. Little auks foraged in the same areas both years, irrespective of sea ice presence/concentration, and targeted the shelf break and the continental shelf. We confirmed that breeding little auks showed a clear preference for larger copepod species to feed their chick, but caught smaller copepods and nearly no ice-associated amphipod when sea ice was absent. Nevertheless, these dietary changes had no impact on chick growth and adult body condition. Our findings demonstrate the importance of bathymetry for profitable little auk foraging, whatever the sea-ice conditions. Our investigations, along with recent studies, also confirm more flexibility than previously predicted for this key species in a warming Arctic.

Background: Ghana’s marine artisanal fisheries, particularly the small pelagic fisheries, are in a state of crisis. The decline in the number of small pelagic fish are attributable to overfishing, climate variability and unsustainable fishing methods. Similarly, in the wake of climate change, shellfishes (particularly oysters, scallops and mussels) are highly vulnerable. Methods: A total of 55 years’ worth of data from Ghana’s marine artisanal fisheries were studied in relation to climate indices. The primary objective was to develop a simple linear regression model for predicting shellfish catch in Ghana. Key informant interviews were employed in soliciting data on changes in climate along the coastline and trends in marine artisanal shell fish catch.  Results: The predictor variable that significantly explained shellfish production was temperature. Hence, the model is a valuable tool to predict future trends in the shellfish catch in marine artisanal fisheries. Conclusions: Increases in sea surface temperature will adversely affect shellfish production. It is therefore important that the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture Development and other stakeholders should, in their decision-making processes, ensure the formulation of climate smart policies and management strategies for sustainable use of the resource.

The MUSES project is a 2 year Horizon 2020 funded project under Grant Agreement No. 727451. The MUSES project builds on existing knowledge to explore the real opportunities for Multi-Use (“MU”) in Europe, including the scope for innovation and Blue Growth potential and to present practical solutions on how to overcome existing barriers and minimise risks associated with MU development. The MUSES project encompasses five EU sea basins (Baltic Sea, North Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and Eastern Atlantic). The purpose of this document is to provide a half term summary of the work undertaken for the Multi-Use in European Seas (“MUSES”) Project during the first year (1st November 2016 – 31st October 2017).

A “Well-to-Propeller” Life Cycle Assessment of maritime transport was performed with a European geographical focus. Four typical types of vessels with specific operational profiles were assessed: a container vessel and a tanker (both with 2-stroke engines), a passenger roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Pax) and a cruise vessel (both with 4-stroke engines). All main engines were dual fuel operated with Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Alternative onshore and offshore fuel supply chains were considered. Primary energy use and greenhouse gas emissions were assessed. Raw material extraction was found to be the most impactful life cycle stage (~90% of total energy use). Regarding greenhouse gases, liquefaction was the key issue. When transitioning from HFO to LNG, the systems were mainly influenced by a reduction in cargo capacity due to bunkering requirements and methane slip, which depends on the fuel supply chain (onshore has 64% more slip than offshore) and the engine type (4-stroke engines have 20% more slip than 2-stroke engines). The combination of alternative fuel supply chains and specific operational profiles allowed for a complete system assessment. The results demonstrated that multiple opposing drivers affect the environmental performance of maritime transport, a useful insight towards establishing emission abatement strategies.