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In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.

Rivers are significant sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs; e.g., CH4 and CO2); however, our understanding of the large-scale longitudinal patterns of GHG emissions from rivers remains incomplete, representing a major challenge in upscaling. Local hotspots and moderate heterogeneities may be overlooked by conventional sampling schemes. In August 2020 and for the first time, we performed continuous (once per minute) CH4 measurements of surface water during a 584-km-long river cruise along the German Elbe to explore heterogeneities in CH4 concentration at different spatial scales and identify CH4 hotspots along the river. The median concentration of dissolved CH4 in the Elbe was 112 nmol L−1, ranging from 40 to 1,456 nmol L−1 The highest CH4 concentrations were recorded at known potential hotspots, such as weirs and harbors. These hotspots were also notable in terms of atmospheric CH4 concentrations, indicating that measurements in the atmosphere above the water are useful for hotspot detection. The median atmospheric CH4 concentration was 2,033 ppb, ranging from 1,821 to 2,796 ppb. We observed only moderate changes and fluctuations in values along the river. Tributaries did not obviously affect CH4 concentrations in the main river. The median CH4 emission was 251 μmol m−2 d−1, resulting in a total of 28,640 mol d−1 from the entire German Elbe. Similar numbers were obtained using a conventional sampling approach, indicating that continuous measurements are not essential for a large-scale budget. However, we observed considerable lateral heterogeneity, with significantly higher concentrations near the shore only in reaches with groins. Sedimentation and organic matter mineralization in groin fields evidently increase CH4 concentrations in the river, leading to considerable lateral heterogeneity. Thus, river morphology and structures determine the variability of dissolved CH4 in large rivers, resulting in smooth concentrations at the beginning of the Elbe versus a strong variability in its lower parts. In conclusion, groin construction is an additional anthropogenic modification following dam building that can significantly increase GHG emissions from rivers.

Filter feeding invertebrates are a relevant component of fouling assemblages with a pivotal role in ecological processes, since they improve water quality, enhance habitat heterogeneity and transfer organic matter from the water column to the benthos. They modulate the availability of resources to other species, with effects on the density and behavior of the surrounding macrofauna. The fanworm Sabella spallanzanii, one of the largest and most abundant Mediterranean filter feeders, provides a shelter for predation and a secondary substrate for algae and settlement for sessile invertebrates. We tested its role in driving the structure of fouling assemblages, through a removal experiment.The experiment was one-year-long, with four sampling times. The effect of the removal on the fouling community was marginal in terms of species richness and evenness, while the biomass showed important differences, with a constant increase over time with higher values in the samples containing S. spallanzanii. At the end of observations, the biomass reached the value of 3917 g DW m-2 in controls and 2073 g DW m-2 in treatments. The empty space left by fanworms was not used by other species with similar biomasses. It is possible that the functioning of fouling communities may, in the event of loss of species, fluctuate in terms of biomass mobilization to different compartments, either towards the pelagic compartment or to the detritus chain. In systems with reduced water turnover, this by-pass can have important consequences in terms of stability and ecological balance.

A priority of the industrial applications of microalgae is the reduction of production costs while maximizing algae biomass productivity. The purpose of this study was to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of pH control on the production of Nannochloropsis gaditana in tubular photobioreactors under external conditions while considering the environmental, biological, and operational parameters of the process. Experiments were carried out in 3.0 m3 tubular photobioreactors under outdoor conditions. The pH values evaluated were 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 9.0, and 10.0, which were controlled by injecting pure CO2 on-demand. The results have shown that the ideal pH for microalgal growth was 8.0, with higher values of biomass productivity (Pb) (0.16 g L-1 d-1), and CO2 use efficiency ([Formula: see text]) (74.6% w w-1); [Formula: see text]/biomass value obtained at this pH (2.42 [Formula: see text] gbiomass-1) was close to the theoretical value, indicating an adequate CO2 supply. At this pH, the system was more stable and required a lower number of CO2 injections than the other treatments. At pH 6.0, there was a decrease in the Pb and [Formula: see text]; cultures at pH 10.0 exhibited a lower Pb and photosynthetic efficiency as well. These results imply that controlling the pH at an optimum value allows higher CO2 conversions in biomass to be achieved and contributes to the reduction in costs of the microalgae production process.

This study is the initial stage of further investigation into the dynamics of injury to fish during passage through a turbine runner. As part of the study, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimated the probability of blade strike, and associated injury, as a function of fish length and turbine operating geometry at two adjacent turbines in Powerhouse 1 of Bonneville Dam. Units 5 and 6 had identical intakes, stay vanes, wicket gates, and draft tubes, but Unit 6 had a new runner and curved discharge ring to minimize gaps between the runner hub and blades and between the blade tips and discharge ring. We used a mathematical model to predict blade strike associated with two Kaplan turbines and compared results with empirical data from biological tests conducted in 1999 and 2000. Blade-strike models take into consideration the geometry of the turbine blades and discharges as well as fish length, orientation, and distribution along the runner. The first phase of this study included a sensitivity analysis to consider the effects of difference in geometry and operations between families of turbines on the strike probability response surface. The analysis revealed that the orientation of fish relative to the leading edge of amore » runner blade and the location that fish pass along the blade between the hub and blade tip are critical uncertainties in blade-strike models. Over a range of discharges, the average prediction of injury from blade strike was two to five times higher than average empirical estimates of visible injury from shear and mechanical devices. Empirical estimates of mortality may be better metrics for comparison to predicted injury rates than other injury measures for fish passing at mid-blade and blade-tip locations.« less

AbstractWater scarcity is a serious issue on many small coral islands, including the Spermonde Archipelago in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. An important driver behind it is population growth. Additionally, the predicted impacts of climate change will further accelerate the problem. While a lot of scientific attention has been paid to water scarcity in the Pacific, little is known about the situation in Indonesia. The paper presents the results of the first scientific study on water scarcity in an Indonesian Archipelago. It combines an analysis of historical and contemporary documents with a study about local perceptions on water scarcity. 160 people on four case study islands were interviewed about water availability and quality in the past and at present. The results show that although water scarcity is not a new issue, it has increased from the 1960s onwards. Possible anthropogenic and natural drivers behind this development are discussed, and management implications presented. It is argued that management measures need to be island-specific and require local institutions for water management.