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In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder’s equation and Robertson’s Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns. Data used for models presented in: Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird by Moiron M, Teplitsky C, Haest B, Charmantier A†, Bouwhuis S† († = shared last authors) published in Evolution Letters. for information regarding the analyses, please contact mariamoironc@gmail.com for information regarding the data, please contact sandra.bouwhuis@ifv-vogelwarte.de if you'd like to use the data, please also contact sandra.bouwhuis@ifv-vogelwarte.de These data are part of those collected in an ongoing individual-based longitudinal population study additional data are likely to be available, and we are often very happy to collaborate provided that none of our own staff or students is working on a conflicting project.

Avoiding irreversible climate change as effectively as possible is one of the most pressing challenges of society. Carbon pricing that is uniformly valid on a global and cross-sectoral basis represents a cost-efficient policy tool to meet this challenge. Carbon pricing allows external costs to be allocated or internalized on a polluter-pays principle. It is shown that a global emissions cap-and-trade system is the most suitable market-based instrument for reducing global emissions levels, in line with the temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement. A proposal for its design is presented in this paper. This instrument encourages worldwide measures, with the lowest marginal abatement cost, according to a pre-defined reduction path. Thereby, it ensures compliance with a specified remaining carbon budget to meet a certain temperature limit in a cost-efficient manner. Possible reduction paths are presented in this paper. Weaknesses in the design of existing emissions trading systems (ETS), such as the EU ETS, are identified and avoided in the proposed instrument. The framework solves several problems of today’s climate change policies, like the free rider problem, carbon leakage, rebound effects or the green paradox. The introduction of a global uniform carbon pricing instrument and its concrete design should be the subject of policy, especially at the United Nations climate change conferences, as soon as possible in order to allow for rapid implementation. If a global ETS with a uniform carbon price could be introduced, additional governmental regulations with regard to carbon emissions would become obsolete.

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

AbstractWe devise a methodology to predict failures in wind turbine drive‐train components and quantify its utility. The methodology consists of two main steps. The first step is the set up of a predictive model for shutdown events, which is able to raise an alarm in advance of the fault‐induced shutdown. The model is trained on data for shutdown events retrieved from the alarm log of an offshore wind farm. Here, it is assumed that the timely prediction of low‐severity events, typically caused by abnormal component operation, allows for an intervention that can prevent premature component failures. The prediction models are based on statistical classification using only supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. In the second step, the shutdown prediction model is combined with a cost model to provide an estimate of the benefits associated with implementing the predictive maintenance system. This is achieved by computing the maximum net utility attainable as a function of the model performance and efficiency of intervention carried out by the user. Results show that the system can be expected to be cost‐effective under specific conditions. A discussion about potential improvements of the approach is provided, along with suggestions for further research in this area.

Pour obtenir un aperçu spécifique des rôles que les micro-organismes pourraient jouer dans la stéatose hépatique non alcoolique (NAFLD), certaines bactéries intestinales et lactiques et une levure (Anaerostipes caccae, Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, Bifidobacterium longum, Enterococcus fecalis, Escherichia coli, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus fermentum, Lactobacillus plantarum, Weissella confusa, Saccharomyces cerevisiae) ont été caractérisées par une chromatographie liquide haute performance pour la production d'éthanol lorsqu'elles sont cultivées sur différents glucides : hexoses (glucose et fructose), pentoses (arabinose et ribose), disaccharides (lactose et lactulose) et inuline. Les quantités les plus élevées d'éthanol ont été produites par S. cerevisiae, L. fermentum et W. confusa sur le glucose et par S. cerevisiae et W. confusa sur le fructose. En raison de la mannitol-déshydrogénase exprimée dans L. fermentum, la production d'éthanol sur le fructose a été significativement réduite (P < 0,05). Le pyruvate et le citrate, deux accepteurs d'électrons potentiels pour la régénération du NAD+/NADP+, ont considérablement réduit la production d'éthanol avec de l'acétate produit à la place dans L. fermentum cultivé sur glucose et W. confusa cultivé sur glucose et fructose, respectivement. Dans les boues fécales préparées à partir des matières fécales de quatre volontaires en surpoids, on a constaté que l'éthanol était produit lors de l'ajout de fructose. L'ajout d'A. caccae, L. acidophilus, L. fermentum, ainsi que de citrate et de pyruvate, respectivement, a aboli la production d'éthanol. Cependant, l'ajout de W. confusa a entraîné une augmentation significative (P < 0,05) de la production d'éthanol. Ces résultats indiquent que des micro-organismes comme W. confusa, une bactérie lactique hétéro-fermentaire, négative à la mannitol-déshydrogénase, peuvent favoriser la NAFLD par l'éthanol produit à partir de la fermentation du sucre, tandis que d'autres bactéries intestinales et des bactéries lactiques homo- et hétéro-fermentaires mais positives à la mannitol-déshydrogénase peuvent ne pas favoriser la NAFLD. En outre, nos études indiquent que les facteurs alimentaires interférant avec le microbiote gastro-intestinal et le métabolisme microbien peuvent être importants dans la prévention ou la promotion de la NAFLD. Para obtener información específica sobre los roles que podrían desempeñar los microorganismos en la enfermedad del hígado graso no alcohólico (NAFLD, por sus siglas en inglés), algunas bacterias intestinales y del ácido láctico y una levadura (Anaerostipes caccae, Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, Bifidobacterium longum, Enterococcus fecalis, Escherichia coli, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus fermentum, Lactobacillus plantarum, Weissella confusa, Saccharomyces cerevisiae) se caracterizaron por cromatografía líquida de alto rendimiento para la producción de etanol cuando se cultivaron en diferentes carbohidratos: hexosas (glucosa y fructosa), pentosas (arabinosa y ribosa), disacáridos (lactosa y lactulosa) e inulina. Las cantidades más altas de etanol fueron producidas por S. cerevisiae, L. fermentum y W. confusa en glucosa y por S. cerevisiae y W. confusa en fructosa. Debido a la manitol-deshidrogenasa expresada en L. fermentum, la producción de etanol en fructosa se redujo significativamente (P < 0.05). El piruvato y el citrato, dos aceptores de electrones potenciales para la regeneración de NAD+/NADP+, redujeron drásticamente la producción de etanol con acetato producido en su lugar en L. fermentum cultivado en glucosa y W. confusa cultivado en glucosa y fructosa, respectivamente. En suspensiones fecales preparadas a partir de heces de cuatro voluntarios con sobrepeso, se encontró que el etanol se producía tras la adición de fructosa. La adición de A. caccae, L. acidophilus, L. fermentum, así como citrato y piruvato, respectivamente, abolió la producción de etanol. Sin embargo, la adición de W. confusa resultó en un aumento significativo (P < 0.05) de la producción de etanol. Estos resultados indican que microorganismos como W. confusa, una bacteria de ácido láctico hetero-fermentativa, negativa para manitol-deshidrogenasa, pueden promover NAFLD a través del etanol producido a partir de la fermentación de azúcar, mientras que otras bacterias intestinales y bacterias de ácido láctico homo- y hetero-fermentativas pero positivas para manitol-deshidrogenasa pueden no promover NAFLD. Además, nuestros estudios indican que los factores dietéticos que interfieren con la microbiota gastrointestinal y el metabolismo microbiano pueden ser importantes para prevenir o promover la EHGNA. To gain some specific insight into the roles microorganisms might play in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), some intestinal and lactic acid bacteria and one yeast (Anaerostipes caccae, Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron, Bifidobacterium longum, Enterococcus fecalis, Escherichia coli, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus fermentum, Lactobacillus plantarum, Weissella confusa, Saccharomyces cerevisiae) were characterized by high performance liquid chromatography for production of ethanol when grown on different carbohydrates: hexoses (glucose and fructose), pentoses (arabinose and ribose), disaccharides (lactose and lactulose), and inulin. Highest amounts of ethanol were produced by S. cerevisiae, L. fermentum and W. confusa on glucose and by S. cerevisiae and W. confusa on fructose. Due to mannitol-dehydrogenase expressed in L. fermentum, ethanol production on fructose was significantly (P < 0.05) reduced. Pyruvate and citrate, two potential electron acceptors for regeneration of NAD+/NADP+, drastically reduced ethanol production with acetate produced instead in L. fermentum grown on glucose and W. confusa grown on glucose and fructose, respectively. In fecal slurries prepared from feces of four overweight volunteers, ethanol was found to be produced upon addition of fructose. Addition of A. caccae, L. acidophilus, L. fermentum, as well as citrate and pyruvate, respectively, abolished ethanol production. However, addition of W. confusa resulted in significantly (P < 0.05) increased production of ethanol. These results indicate that microorganisms like W. confusa, a hetero-fermentative, mannitol-dehydrogenase negative lactic acid bacterium, may promote NAFLD through ethanol produced from sugar fermentation, while other intestinal bacteria and homo- and hetero-fermentative but mannitol-dehydrogenase positive lactic acid bacteria may not promote NAFLD. Also, our studies indicate that dietary factors interfering with gastrointestinal microbiota and microbial metabolism may be important in preventing or promoting NAFLD. لاكتساب بعض الأفكار المحددة حول الأدوار التي قد تلعبها الكائنات الحية الدقيقة في مرض الكبد الدهني غير الكحولي (NAFLD)، تميزت بعض بكتيريا حمض الأمعاء واللاكتيك وخميرة واحدة (Anaerostipes caccae، Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron، Bifidobacterium longum، Enterococcus fecalis، Escherichia coli، Lactobacillus acidophilus، Lactobacillus fermentum، Lactobacillus plantarum، Weissella confusa، Saccharomyces cerevisiae) بتصوير سائل عالي الأداء لإنتاج الإيثانول عند زراعته على كربوهيدرات مختلفة: hexoses (الجلوكوز والفركتوز)، pentoses (الأرابينوز والريبوز)، disaccharides (اللاكتوز واللاكتولوز)، و inulin. تم إنتاج أعلى كميات من الإيثانول بواسطة S. cerevisiae و L. fermentum و W. confusa على الجلوكوز و S. cerevisiae و W. confusa على الفركتوز. بسبب نازعة هيدروجين المانيتول المعبر عنها في L. fermentum، انخفض إنتاج الإيثانول على الفركتوز بشكل كبير (P < 0.05). قلل البيروفات والسيترات، وهما مستقبلان محتملان للإلكترون لتجديد NAD +/NADP+، بشكل كبير من إنتاج الإيثانول مع الأسيتات المنتجة بدلاً من ذلك في L. fermentum المزروع على الجلوكوز و W. confusa المزروع على الجلوكوز والفركتوز، على التوالي. في الملاط البرازي الذي تم تحضيره من براز أربعة متطوعين يعانون من زيادة الوزن، وجد أن الإيثانول يتم إنتاجه عند إضافة الفركتوز. إضافة A. caccae، L. acidophilus، L. fermentum، وكذلك السترات والبيروفات، على التوالي، ألغت إنتاج الإيثانول. ومع ذلك، أدت إضافة W. confusa إلى زيادة كبيرة في إنتاج الإيثانول (P < 0.05). تشير هذه النتائج إلى أن الكائنات الحية الدقيقة مثل W. confusa، وهي بكتيريا حمض اللاكتيك السلبية غير المتجانسة، قد تعزز NAFLD من خلال الإيثانول المنتج من تخمير السكر، في حين أن البكتيريا المعوية الأخرى وبكتيريا حمض اللاكتيك الإيجابية غير المتجانسة ولكن غير المتجانسة قد لا تعزز NAFLD. أيضًا، تشير دراساتنا إلى أن العوامل الغذائية التي تتداخل مع الكائنات الحية الدقيقة في الجهاز الهضمي والتمثيل الغذائي الميكروبي قد تكون مهمة في منع أو تعزيز NAFLD.

Although market-based environmental policy instruments feature prominently in economic theory and are widely employed, they often face public resistance. We argue that such resistance may be driven by moral responsibility, where citizens prefer to tackle the environmental problems that they have caused by themselves, rather than delegating the task to others by means of a market mechanism. Using a laboratory experiment that isolates moral responsibility from alternative explanations, we show that moral responsibility induces participants to take inefficient actions that reduce the earnings of the whole group of participants. We discuss the implications of this finding for the design and implementation of environmental policies.

Introduction. The article presents an analysis of researches on the operation of public transport vehicles with an electric drive. Electric buses have been tested in megacities, and despite the advantages, problems were identi- fied both in the selection of the charging type, technological features and with the availability and operation of the charging infrastructure. The operation process is associated with a number of technical restrictions, which in prac- tice make it difficult to select routes for the electric bus operation. The aim of the study is to develop an algorithm for selecting a rational regular urban route for the electric bus operation and to test it on the example of the route network of Tyumen.Materials and methods. A structural diagram of the factors influencing the selection of the route for the electric bus operation has been formed. As a result of processing expert assessments, the most significant factors were identified. The diagram of the interconnections of these factors is identified and limitations for the algorithm are for- mulated based on the theory of systems analysis. The algorithm for selecting the rational regular urban route for the electric bus operation has been developed. It enables creating the simulation model for selecting a rational regular urban route for the operation of an electric bus.Results. The diagram of factors influencing the selection of a rational regular urban route for the operation of an electric bus, taking into account their mutual relations, has been formed. The algorithm and simulation model for se- lecting a rational regular urban route for the operation of an electric bus has been developed. Several urban routes in Tyumen were assessed for the rationality of the introduction of electric buses.Discussion and conclusions. Evaluation of five regular urban routes in Tyumen using the developed algorithm and the simulation model revealed three rational routes, and also showed the inefficiency of the other two. It due to the discrepancy between the duration of the charging session and breaks in operation, as well as the insufficient charge level of the traction battery to ensure the required autonomous movement of the vehicle. In the course of the continuation of these studies, the developed algorithm will be supplemented with the stage of economic assess- ment of routes for the operation of electric buses.