• Energy Research
• Restricted close
• Embargo close
• 15. Life on land close
• 2. Zero hunger close
• AT close
• UA close

The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to +160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes.

With concerns of energy shortages, China, like the United States, European Union, and other countries, is promoting the development of biofuels. However, China also faces high future demand for food and feed, and so its bioenergy program must try to strike a balance between food and fuel. The goals of this paper are to provide an overview of China's current bioethanol program, identify the potential for using marginal lands for feedstock production, and measure the likely impacts of China's bioethanol development on the nation's future food self-sufficiency. Our results indicate that the potential to use marginal land for bioethanol feedstock production is limited. Applying a modeling approach based on highly disaggregated data by region, our analysis shows that the target of 10 million t of bioethanol by 2020 seems to be a prudent target, causing no major disturbances in China's food security. But the expansion of bioethanol may increase environmental pressures due to the higher levels of fertilizer use. This study shows also that if China were able to cultivate 45% of its required bioethanol feedstock on new marginal land, it would further limit negative effects of the bioethanol program on the domestic and international economy, but at the expense of having to apply another 750 thousand t of fertilizer.

The Indian subcontinent faces a population increase from 1.6 billion in 2000 towards 2 billion around 2050. Therefore, expansion of agricultural area combined with increases in productivity will be necessary to produce the food needed in the future. However, with pressure on water resources already being high, and potential effects of climate change still uncertain, the question rises whether there will be enough water resources available to sustain this production. The objective of this study is to make a spatially explicit quantitative analysis of water requirements and availability for current and future food production in five South Asian basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Godavari and Krishna), in the absence or presence of two different adaptation strategies: an overall improvement in irrigation efficiency, and an increase of reservoir storage capacity. The analysis is performed by using the coupled hydrology and crop production model LPJmL. It is found that the Godavari and Krishna basins will benefit most from an increased storage capacity, whereas in the Ganges and the Indus water scarcity mainly takes place in areas where this additional storage would not provide additional utility. Increasing the irrigation efficiency will be beneficial in all basins, but most in the Indus and Ganges, as it decreases the pressure on groundwater resources and decreases the fraction of food production that would become at risk because of water shortage. A combination of both options seems to be the best strategy in all basins. The large-scale model used in this study is suitable to identify hotspot areas and support the first step in the policy process, but the final design and implementation of adaptation options requires supporting studies at finer scales.

Climate Data Records of soil moisture are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles over land. To respond to this need, in 2012 the European Space Agency (ESA) released the first multi-decadal, global satellite-observed soil moisture (SM) dataset as part of its Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. This product, named ESA CCI SM, combines various single-sensor active and passive microwave soil moisture products into three harmonised products: a merged ACTIVE, a merged PASSIVE, and a COMBINED active + passive microwave product. Compared to the first product release, the latest version of ESA CCI SM includes a large number of enhancements, incorporates various new satellite sensors, and extends its temporal coverage to the period 1978–2015. In this study, we first provide a comprehensive overview of the characteristics, evolution, and performance of the ESA CCI SM products. Based on original research and a review of existing literature we show that the product quality has steadily increased with each successive release and that the merged products generally outperform the single-sensor input products. Although ESA CCI SM generally agrees well with the spatial and temporal patterns estimated by land surface models and observed in-situ, we identify surface conditions (e.g., dense vegetation, organic soils) for which it still has large uncertainties. Second, capitalising on the results of > 100 research studies that made use of the ESA CCI SM data we provide a synopsis of how it has contributed to improved process understanding in the following Earth system domains: climate variability and change, land-atmosphere interactions, global biogeochemical cycles and ecology, hydrological and land surface modelling, drought applications, and meteorology. While in some disciplines the use of ESA CCI SM is already widespread (e.g. in the evaluation of model soil moisture states) in others (e.g. in numerical weather prediction or flood forecasting) it is still in its infancy. The latter is partly related to current shortcomings of the product, e.g., the lack of near-real-time availability and data gaps in time and space. This study discloses the discrepancies between current ESA CCI SM product characteristics and the preferred characteristics of long-term satellite soil moisture products as outlined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and provides important directions for future ESA CCI SM product improvements to bridge these gaps.

This paper offers a forest operations perspective in environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) in Europe and the United States. The objective is to help inform key sustainability knowledge gaps in forest operations to reduce impacts on the environment and the equipment operators in these increasingly targeted and difficult to operate in areas. Under existing guidelines and best management practices, the protection of ecosystem services linked to soil, water, wildlife and biodiversity have rightly received the highest considerations. However, the connection between protecting these ecological values, safe operational practices and technological advancements is rarely well articulated. One means to address the operational and technological gap is the selection of equipment and tailor the work conditions to terrain type, forest features and management objectives. To that effect, this paper discusses the environmental, planning, equipment selection and operator considerations and proposes possible solutions and guidelines to contain both the operators' safety and environmental risks in forest operations.

AbstractThe EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets, implemented to achieve climate change mitigation, affect the level of agricultural production in the EU and in the rest of the world. This article presents an impact assessment of increased biomass supply under different sustainability constraints on land use and resulting total GHG emissions at global and EU level. We apply GLOBIOM, a global partial equilibrium model integrating the agricultural, livestock, bioenergy and forestry sectors based on geographically explicit modeling of supply under prescribed demand. According to the model, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land‐use change (LUC) are anticipated to rise significantly up to 2030 due to various drivers (among others: GDP and population, diet shifts, and also bioenergy demand) despite basic sustainability criteria implemented by the RED (Reference scenario). Applying additional criteria, mainly protecting biodiversity outside the EU, overall GHG emissions can be reduced by 5% in 2030 compared to the Reference. Deforestation area decreases in this scenario slightly due to exclusion of high biodiversity forests but also due to increasing demand for energy wood that makes forests more valuable. If, however, in addition, deforestation is prevented through effective land‐use policies, global GHG emissions can be reduced by 20% (compared to the Reference scenario). We conclude that sustainability criteria applied to biofuel production and imports only, do not mitigate potential negative impacts on total GHG emissions effectively. Unsustainable biomass production in sectors not covered by the bioenergy criteria can be best avoided by targeting deforestation and biodiversity loss directly. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

High mountain lakes provide essential ecosystem services and have a high conservation value. Therefore, understanding how glacier retreat will affect their ecological functioning and water quality is crucial. Here, we tested how shallow high mountain lakes having different glacial influences differ in their abiotic main features and food web structure using a multiple ecological indicator approach. We identified 13 functional groups within the planktonic and littoral communities, each one representing a biotic indicator and a node in a simplified food web network. The abiotic environment and most functional groups differed significantly as a consequence of the glacial influence. In general, runoff from glacial meltwaters resulted in highly simplified food webs. Considering that many turbid glacially fed lakes are losing their hydrological connection with disappearing/retreating glaciers and shifting to a clear state, our results suggest that this shift could enhance food web complexity, but at the cost of losing specific habitats. Further, retreat of large glaciers will form new glacially fed lakes, but it remains unclear whether this will buffer the expected habitat and biodiversity loss.

Hunger knows no boundaries or borders. While much research has focused on undernutrition on a national scale, this report evaluates it at subnational levels for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to pinpoint hotspots where the greatest challenges exist. Undernutrition is assessed with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes by investigating anthropometric data on weight and length of individuals. The impact of climate change on production of six major crops (cassava, maize, wheat, sorghum, rice and millet) is analyzed with a GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (GEPIC) model with the same spatial resolution. Future hotspots of hunger are projected in the context of the anticipated climate, social, economic, and bio-physical changes. The results show that some regions in northern and southwestern Nigeria, Sudan and Angola with a currently high number of people with undernutrition might be able to improve their food security situation mainly through increasing purchasing power. In the near future, regions located in Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, southwestern Niger, and Madagascar are likely to remain hotspots of food insecurity, while regions located in Tanzania, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo might face more serious undernutrition. It is likely that both the groups of regions will suffer from lower capacity of importing food as well as lower per capita calorie availability, while the latter group will probably have sharper reduction in per capita calorie availability. Special attention must be paid to the hotspot areas in order to meet the hunger alleviation goals in SSA.