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• Karlsruhe Institute of Technology close

Global biodiversity is rapidly declining, and goals to halt biodiversity loss, such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, have not been achieved. To avoid further biodiversity loss, area-based protection will form part of new biodiversity targets. We use a state-of-the-art global land-use model, the Land System Modular Model, to explore global and regional human health and food security outcomes under strictly enforced 30% and 50% land protection scenarios. We find protection scenarios cause additional human mortality due to diet- and weight-related changes. Low-income regions such as South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa experience the highest levels of underweight-related mortality, causing an additional 200,000 deaths related to malnutrition in these regions alone. High-income regions, by contrast, are less affected by protection measures. Our results highlight that radical measures to protect areas of biodiversity value may jeopardize food security and human health in the most vulnerable regions of the world.

Abstract. Grasslands are an important part of pre-Alpine and Alpine landscapes. Despite the economic value and the significant role of grasslands in carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling, spatially explicit information on grassland biomass and quality is rarely available. Remotely sensed data from unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) and satellites might be an option to overcome this gap. Our study aims to investigate the potential of low-cost UAS-based multispectral sensors for estimating above-ground biomass (dry matter, DM) and plant N concentration. In our analysis, we compared two different sensors (Parrot Sequoia, SEQ; MicaSense RedEdge-M, REM), three statistical models (linear model; random forests, RFs; gradient-boosting machines, GBMs), and six predictor sets (i.e. different combinations of raw reflectance, vegetation indices, and canopy height). Canopy height information can be derived from UAS sensors but was not available in our study. Therefore, we tested the added value of this structural information with in situ measured bulk canopy height data. A combined field sampling and flight campaign was conducted in April 2018 at different grassland sites in southern Germany to obtain in situ and the corresponding spectral data. The hyper-parameters of the two machine learning (ML) approaches (RF, GBM) were optimized, and all model setups were run with a 6-fold cross-validation. Linear models were characterized by very low statistical performance measures, thus were not suitable to estimate DM and plant N concentration using UAS data. The non-linear ML algorithms showed an acceptable regression performance for all sensor–predictor set combinations with average (avg; cross-validated, cv) Rcv2 of 0.48, RMSEcv,avg of 53.0 g m2, and rRMSEcv,avg (relative) of 15.9 % for DM and with Rcv,avg2 of 0.40, RMSEcv,avg of 0.48 wt %, and rRMSEcv, avg of 15.2 % for plant N concentration estimation. The optimal combination of sensors, ML algorithms, and predictor sets notably improved the model performance. The best model performance for the estimation of DM (Rcv2=0.67, RMSEcv=41.9 g m2, rRMSEcv=12.6 %) was achieved with an RF model that utilizes all possible predictors and REM sensor data. The best model for plant N concentration was a combination of an RF model with all predictors and SEQ sensor data (Rcv2=0.47, RMSEcv=0.45 wt %, rRMSEcv=14.2 %). DM models with the spectral input of REM performed significantly better than those with SEQ data, while for N concentration models, it was the other way round. The choice of predictors was most influential on model performance, while the effect of the chosen ML algorithm was generally lower. The addition of canopy height to the spectral data in the predictor set significantly improved the DM models. In our study, calibrating the ML algorithm improved the model performance substantially, which shows the importance of this step.

Many experiments have shown that loss of biodiversity reduces the capacity of ecosystems to provide the multiple services on which humans depend. However, experiments necessarily simplify the complexity of natural ecosystems and will normally control for other important drivers of ecosystem functioning, such as the environment or land use. In addition, existing studies typically focus on the diversity of single trophic groups, neglecting the fact that biodiversity loss occurs across many taxa and that the functional effects of any trophic group may depend on the abundance and diversity of others. Here we report analysis of the relationships between the species richness and abundance of nine trophic groups, including 4,600 above- and below-ground taxa, and 14 ecosystem services and functions and with their simultaneous provision (or multifunctionality) in 150 grasslands. We show that high species richness in multiple trophic groups (multitrophic richness) had stronger positive effects on ecosystem services than richness in any individual trophic group; this includes plant species richness, the most widely used measure of biodiversity. On average, three trophic groups influenced each ecosystem service, with each trophic group influencing at least one service. Multitrophic richness was particularly beneficial for 'regulating' and 'cultural' services, and for multifunctionality, whereas a change in the total abundance of species or biomass in multiple trophic groups (the multitrophic abundance) positively affected supporting services. Multitrophic richness and abundance drove ecosystem functioning as strongly as abiotic conditions and land-use intensity, extending previous experimental results to real-world ecosystems. Primary producers, herbivorous insects and microbial decomposers seem to be particularly important drivers of ecosystem functioning, as shown by the strong and frequent positive associations of their richness or abundance with multiple ecosystem services. Our results show that multitrophic richness and abundance support ecosystem functioning, and demonstrate that a focus on single groups has led to researchers to greatly underestimate the functional importance of biodiversity.

Abstract Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern first surveyed in a harmonized multi-model effort in 2014. We report here on new 21st-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean, and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5 to -6% (SSP126) and +1 to -24% (SSP585) — explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9 shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts — when the change signal emerges from the noise — consistently occurs earlier in the new projections for several main producing regions before 2040. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

AbstractSeveral approaches exist for measuring greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly CO2, N2O, and CH4, from soil surfaces. The principle methods that are used to measure GHG from agricultural sites are chamber-based techniques. Both open and closed chamber techniques are in use; however, the majority of field applications use closed chambers. The advantages and disadvantages of different chamber techniques and the principal steps of operation are described. An important part of determining the quality of the flux measurements is the storage and the transportation of the gas samples from the field to the laboratory where the analyses are carried out. Traditionally, analyses of GHGs are carried out via gas chromatographs (GCs). In recent years, optical analysers are becoming increasingly available; these are user-friendly machines and they provide a cost-effective alternative to GCs. Another technique which is still under development, but provides a potentially superior method, is Raman spectroscopy. Not only the GHGs, but also N2, can potentially be analysed if the precision of these techniques is increased in future development. An important part of this chapter deals with the analyses of the gas concentrations, the calculation of fluxes, and the required safety measures. Since non-upland agricultural lands (i.e. flooded paddy soils) are steadily increasing, a section is devoted to the specificities of GHG measurements in these ecosystems. Specialised techniques are also required for GHG measurements in aquatic systems (i.e. rivers), which are often affected by the transfer of nutrients from agricultural fields and therefore are an important indirect source of emission of GHGs. A simple, robust, and more precise methodof ammonia (NH3) emission measurement is also described.

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.