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Abstract Given the need to reduce the CO2 emissions coming from the manufacturing sector, it is important, for planning purposes, to know which countries and which manufacturing sub-sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the authors estimate trends in global decoupling of energy use and manufacturing value added, compare energy-use intensity in six country groups and estimate the potential for reducing energy use and CO2 emissions under two scenarios and compare selected sub-sector energy intensity and estimate the potential for reducing energy use CO2 emissions. The comparison of energy intensities across country groups and among countries suggests that there still remains significant potential to reduce energy use and associated CO2 emissions. The analysis of four sub-sectors in developing and transition economies also shows similar but varied potential for reducing energy use and associated CO2 emissions.

SummaryThe German government has adopted a law that requires sewage plants to go beyond the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater and to promote recycling. We argue that there is no physical global short‐ or mid‐term phosphorus scarcity. However, we also argue that there are legitimate reasons for policies such as those of Germany, including: precaution as a way to ensure future generations’ long‐term supply security, promotion of technologies for closed‐loop economics in a promising stage of technology development, and decrease in the current supply risk with a new resource pool.

The declaration of 2014-2024 as the Decade of Sustainable Energy for All has catalyzed actions towards achieving universal electricity access. The high costs of building electric infrastructure are a major impediment to improved access, making stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems an attractive solution in remote areas. Here, we analyze the cost-effective electrification solution for Kenya comparing grid extension with stand-alone PV systems. We use micro-data from a national household survey to estimate electricity demand for households that are within reach of electricity infrastructure and to predict latent demand in unconnected households. These regional demands are used in a spatially explicit supply model to seek for a least cost electrification solution. Our results suggest that decentralized PV systems can make an important contribution in areas, with low demand and high connection costs. We find that up to 17% of the population can be reached cost-effectively by off-grid PV systems till 2020.

Abstract The study presents recent developments in the Turkish power market and introduces an Analytic Hierarchy Process model to evaluate and compare the relative overall attractiveness of power plant options for Turkey. The developed model incorporates technical characteristics, resource availability, socio-economic, environmental, cost, political, legal and organisational aspects, for evaluating and prioritising power plant types (biomass, coal, geothermal, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, petroleum, solar and wind). The study incorporates perspectives of different experts that represent various stakeholders of the Turkish power sector. The study reveals that supply reliability, investment costs and contribution to national economy are perceived as most important factors, whereas waste disposal and decommissioning costs are perceived as least important factors. Considering the overall weights, the most attractive power plant types for the Turkish power market are coal, hydro and natural gas power plants. The study indicates that Turkey should drastically decrease the installed capacity share of traditionally dominant power plants (to 58% from 89% in 2016) and fossil fuel power plants (to 40% from 56% in 2016), and increase the share of renewable power plants (to 52% from 44% in 2016), indigenous resource based power plants (to 67% from 56% in 2016) and nuclear power plants.

Abstract The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides Annex-I (industrialized) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in non-Annex-I (developing) countries to achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. Biomass gasification projects could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development. However, there is only one biomass gasifier project registered under the CDM so far. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the economic potential of biomass gasifier-based projects under CDM in India. The preliminary estimates based on this study indicate that there is a vast theoretical potential of CO2 mitigation by the use of biomass gasification projects in India. The results indicate that in India around 74 million tonne agricultural residues as a biomass feedstock can be used for energy applications on an annual basis. In terms of the plant capacity the potential of biomass gasification projects could reach 31 GW that can generate more than 67 TWh electricity annually. The annual CER potential of biomass gasification projects in India could theoretically reach 58 million tonnes. Under more realistic assumptions about diffusion of biomass gasification projects based on past experiences with the government-run programmes, annual CER volumes by 2012 could reach 0.4–1.0 million and 1.0–3.0 million by 2020. The projections based on the past diffusion trend indicate that in India, even with highly favorable assumptions, the dissemination of biomass gasification projects is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another 50 years. CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend if supportive policies are introduced.

Abstract The shift from ownership to service use, often promoted in concepts of sustainability, has recently become available in private vehicle mobility. Currently 38 000 people in a number of European cities are participating. This example is used here, to analyze the characteristics of people sharing one ‘material’ product as well as to investigate which services they actually render. Different views on the latter imply different evaluations of the size of the market potential and different conclusions on the effectiveness of various policy instruments. When service use is a separate lifestyle, policy instruments have to ultimately foster it directly, rather than changing economic costs at the margin only.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate drought conditions over many global regions. However, the future risk posed by droughts depends not only on the climate-induced changes but also on the changes in societal exposure and vulnerability to droughts. Here we illustrate how the consideration of human vulnerability alters global drought risk associated with runoff (hydrological) and soil moisture (agriculture) droughts during the 21st-century. We combine the changes in drought frequency, population growth, and human development as a proxy of vulnerability to project global drought risk under plausible climate and socioeconomic development pathways. Results indicate that the shift toward a pathway of high greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic inequality leads to i) increased population exposure to runoff and soil moisture droughts by 81% and seven folds, respectively, and ii) a stagnation of human development. These consequences are more pronounced for populations living in low than in very high human development countries. In particular, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where the majority of the world's less developed countries are located, fare the worst in terms of future drought risk. The disparity in risk between low and very high human development countries can be substantially reduced in the presence of a shift toward a world of rapid and sustainable development that actively reduces social inequality and emissions. Our results underscore the importance of rapid human development in hotspots of drought risk where effective adaptation is most needed to reduce future drought impacts.

AbstractThe international building sector plays an important role on energy policy and reduction of CO2 emissions. The focus of energy conservation has started from building level and nowadays expands to district, city, region or national level. In this study, an overview, performed within the European project Sinfonia for preparation of a new district tool with focus on energy conservation, will be presented about existing district tools. Several aspects of the tools were included in the overview, such as focus, aim, analytical approach, methodology, geographical coverage, required input data, commercial/freeware, source code, language, tool status, organization/project developing the tool, and web link. The main components of energy district tools such as 3D geographical data, data for building features and properties, and simulation methods were also addressed.Additionally, the issue of appropriate boundary conditions on urban energy analysis, such as user behaviour, will be discussed. A simulation study of a dwelling in various energy standards including different occupant scenarios was performed, and as a result, a formula was developed to estimate an equivalent heating reference temperature as a function of building envelope, living area, and outdoor temperature. Thus, the estimated equivalent heating reference temperature can be used as input in district energy simulations, instead of a constant set point value independent of the building.The present study can serve as a basis for new or further development of tools trying to cover the gap and the limits of the existing ones.

Abstract To simulate the quantitative effects of regional biomass alternatives for energetic purpose (BfE) on air pollutant emissions, a system dynamics model was developed and applied for the EuRegion Austrian–Hungarian cross-border area. The dynamic simulation program Vensim ® was used to build an overall regional model with economic, social and environmental sectors. Within this model, the here-introduced regional air pollution sub-model (RegAir) includes the important human-made emissions of 10 pollutants resulting from all relevant source sectors within the region investigated. Emissions from activities related to biomass production, transport, conversion and final energy consumption were built in detail. After building and calibrating the RegAir model, seven quantitative test scenarios were defined and implemented into the model. Through the scenarios simulation, effects on air emissions were followed and compared over time. The results of these simulations show a significant reduction of CO 2 emissions, especially in cases where fossil fuel displacement in heating devices is achieved on the largest scale. On the contrary, traditional air pollutants increase by most BfE options. The results of the RegAir model simulations of BfE alternatives over two decades provide useful quantifications of various air emissions and identify the less pollutant BfE alternatives in the dynamic context of the relevant air pollution sources of the region. After minor structural modifications and appropriate calibration, RegAir can be applied to other regions as well. However, it is stated that, to finally decide on the overall most-appropriate options at a regional level, other environmental as well as economic and social effects must be taken into consideration, being the latter the goal of the mentioned overall regional model which serves as a model frame to the RegAir tool.