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  • Energy Research
  • 15. Life on land
  • DE
  • AU
  • Leibniz Association

  • Authors: Lothar, M.; Winfried, B.; Winfried, S.; Vladimir, R.; +21 Authors

    Исследование ландшафтов всегда было традиционным научным направлением географии. В России подобная направленность исследований остаётся актуальной, несмотря на то, что термины «геоэкология» и «ландшафтная экология» сегодня более распространены в англоязычном научном сообществе. Наш краткий обзор показывает значительное ускорение антропогенных ландшафтных изменений в Европе, Центральной Азии и азиатской части России за последние пять десятилетий. Ландшафтные исследования в антропоцене должны быть направлены на достижение и сохранение устойчивости ландшафта при его высокой производительности, что включает в себя прекращение деградации ландшафтов, развитие культурных и сохранение природных ландшафтов. Чистая вода и чистый воздух, плодородные и здоровые почвы для производства продуктов питания и других экосистемных услуг, а также биологически разнообразная зеленая среда являются атрибутами ландшафтов, обеспечивающих выживание и благополучие населения. Дисциплинарные и междисциплинарные исследования должны генерировать знания, инновации и правила принятия действенных решений. Генерация знаний в глобализованном мире основана на сборе больших массивов данных и моделировании сценариев. Международные длительные полевые опыты и системы агроэкологического мониторинга будут предоставлять данные для экосистемных моделей и систем поддержки принимаемых решений. Landscape research has been a traditional scientific discipline of geography. This is still the case in Russia, whilst the terms geo-ecology and landscape ecology have become established in the English speaking scientific community. Our short review reveals huge and accelerating anthropogenic landscape transformations in Europe, Central Asia and Asian Russia since the end the 1960s. Landscape research in the Anthropocene has to focus on achieving landscape sustainability at high productivity. This includes halting landscape degradation, developing cultural landscapes, and maintaining semi-natural landscapes. Clean water and air, fertile and healthy soils for food and other ecosystem services and a green and bio-diverse environment are attributes of landscapes for the survival and well-being of humans. Research has to generate knowledge, innovations and decision rules by disciplinary, interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary work. Knowledge generation in a globalized world is based on big data gathering and scenario modelling. International long-term experiments and agri-environmental monitoring systems will deliver data for ecosystem models and decision support systems.

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  • Authors: Christian C. Voigt; Tanja M. Straka; Marcus Fritze;

    Although renewable energy production is widely accepted as clean, it is not necessarily environmental neutral since, for example, wind turbines kill large numbers of airborne animals such as bats. Consequently, stakeholders involved in the planning and operation of wind turbines are often in conflict when trying to reconcile both goals, namely, promoting wind energy production and protecting bats. We report the responses to an online questionnaire sent out to stakeholders to assess this conflict. More than 80% of stakeholders acknowledged the conflict between bat conservation and wind energy production; yet, the majority was confident about solutions and all desired an ecologically sustainable energy transition. All groups, except members of the wind energy sector, disagreed with the statements that wind energy production is of higher priority than biodiversity protection and that global warming is more critical than the biodiversity crisis. All groups agreed that more measures have to be taken to make wind energy production ecologically sustainable and that the society should be included to pay for the implementation of these measures. All stakeholders except for members of the wind energy sector agreed on that revenue losses from wind energy production and delays in the transition process should be acceptable to resolve the green–green dilemma. Among offered choices, most stakeholders suggested engaging in more research, improving the efficiency of energy use and implementing context dependent cut-in speed during wind turbine operation. The suggestion to weaken the legal protection of wildlife species was dismissed by all, underlining the consensus to protect biodiversity.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Val Snow; Lutz Merbold; Lutz Merbold; Robert M. Rees; +13 Authors

    AbstractProcess‐based models are useful for assessing the impact of changing management practices and climate on yields and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems such as grasslands. They can be used to construct national GHG inventories using a Tier 3 approach. However, accurate simulations of nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes remain challenging. Models are limited by our understanding of soil‐plant‐microbe interactions and the impact of uncertainty in measured input parameters on simulated outputs. To improve model performance, thorough evaluations against in situ measurements are needed. Experimental data of N2O emissions under two management practices (control with typical fertilization versus increased clover and no fertilization) were acquired in a Swiss field experiment. We conducted a multimodel evaluation with three commonly used biogeochemical models (DayCent in two variants, PaSim, APSIM in two variants) comparing four years of data. DayCent was the most accurate model for simulating N2O fluxes on annual timescales, while APSIM was most accurate for daily N2O fluxes. The multimodel ensemble average reduced the error in estimated annual fluxes by 41% compared to an estimate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‐derived method for the Swiss agricultural GHG inventory (IPCC‐Swiss), but individual models were not systematically more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss. The model ensemble overestimated the N2O mitigation effect of the clover‐based treatment (measured: 39–45%; ensemble: 52–57%) but was more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss (IPCC‐Swiss: 72–81%). These results suggest that multimodel ensembles are valuable for estimating the impact of climate and management on N2O emissions.

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    Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
    Article . 2020
    License: CC BY NC
    Data sources: Datacite
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    Research Collection
    Article . 2020
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    HAL INRAE
    Article . 2020
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Article . 2020
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ IRIS Cnrarrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
      Article . 2020
      License: CC BY NC
      Data sources: Datacite
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      Article . 2020
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      Article . 2020
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Authors: Marta Reyes; Thomas J. Mozder; Thomas J. Mozder; Mark O. Gessner; +1 Authors

    AbstractIntraspecific variation in genotypically determined traits can influence ecosystem processes. Therefore, the impact of climate change on ecosystems may depend, in part, on the distribution of plant genotypes. Here we experimentally assess effects of climate warming and excess nitrogen supply on litter decomposition using 12 genotypes of a cosmopolitan foundation species collected across a 2100 km latitudinal gradient and grown in a common garden. Genotypically determined litter‐chemistry traits varied substantially within and among geographic regions, which strongly affected decomposition and the magnitude of warming effects, as warming accelerated litter mass loss of high‐nutrient, but not low‐nutrient, genotypes. Although increased nitrogen supply alone had no effect on decomposition, it strongly accelerated litter mass loss of all genotypes when combined with warming. Rates of microbial respiration associated with the leaf litter showed nearly identical responses as litter mass loss. These results highlight the importance of interactive effects of environmental factors and suggest that loss or gain of genetic variation associated with key phenotypic traits can buffer, or exacerbate, the impact of global change on ecosystem process rates in the future.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Global Change Biolog...arrow_drop_down
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Global Change Biolog...arrow_drop_down
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      Global Change Biology
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Kristin Nicolaus; Jens Jetzkowitz;

    Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are currently being discussed as one of the most promising tools in environmental and sustainability governance. However, much criticism has been voiced against overly optimistic assumptions of PES’ management potential towards sustainability. Several contributions to the debate show that PES fail both in reducing poverty and strengthening social justice. Additionally, they neglect problems of deliberation in decision-making, as well as the legitimacy of the applied environmental practices. Our empirical investigation on participatory and deliberative structures in already existing PES initiated by non-state actors contributes to the latter body of research. Based on the assumption that playing an active part in scheme design facilitates the consideration of justice and fairness, our case studies from Germany and the UK. present interesting results on the involvement of conflicting interests and their argumentation in the design process. Summing up these findings, we conclude that paying for ES rarely contributes to sustainable development in and of itself, but deliberatively designed schemes provide a formal setting to take aspects of justice into account.

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    Sustainability
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Sustainability
    Article
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    Sustainability
    Article . 2014
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      Sustainability
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      Sustainability
      Article . 2014
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    Authors: Kopprio, Germán Adolfo; Biancalana, Florencia; Fricke, Anna; Garzon Cardona, John Edison; +2 Authors

    The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems.

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    CONICET Digital
    Article . 2015
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    Marine Pollution Bulletin
    Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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      Marine Pollution Bulletin
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    Authors: M. Hoffmann; C. Hilton Taylor; A. Angulo; M. Bohm; +170 Authors

    Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

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    CORE
    Article . 2010
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    Article . 2010
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    Article . 2010
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    Article . 2010
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    Science
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    HKU Scholars Hub
    Article . 2011
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    Authors: Julia Reinhardt; Stefan Liersch; Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim; Mori Diallo; +9 Authors

    Los escenarios se han convertido en una herramienta clave para apoyar la investigación de sostenibilidad sobre el cambio regional y global. En este estudio evaluamos cuatro evaluaciones de escenarios regionales: primero, para explorar una serie de desafíos de investigación relacionados con la ciencia de la sostenibilidad y, segundo, para contribuir a la investigación de sostenibilidad en los estudios de casos específicos. Los cuatro estudios de casos utilizaron enfoques de escenarios comúnmente aplicados que son (i) un enfoque de historia y simulación con participación de las partes interesadas en la cuenca hidrográfica de Oum Zessar, Túnez, (ii) una exploración participativa de escenarios en la región de Rwenzori, Uganda, (iii) un estudio de prepolíticas basado en modelos en el Delta Interior del Níger, Malí, y (iv) un análisis de escenarios basado en modelos de acoplamiento en la cuenca alta de Thukela, Sudáfrica. Las evaluaciones de escenarios se evalúan frente a un conjunto de desafíos conocidos en la ciencia de la sostenibilidad, con cada desafío representado por dos indicadores, complementados por una encuesta realizada sobre la percepción de las evaluaciones de escenarios dentro de las regiones de estudio de caso. Los resultados muestran que todos los tipos de evaluaciones de escenarios abordan muchos desafíos de sostenibilidad, pero que los más complejos basados en la historia y la simulación y el acoplamiento de modelos son: el más completo. El estudio destaca la necesidad de investigar los cambios abruptos del sistema, así como los factores gubernamentales y políticos como fuentes importantes de incertidumbre. Para un análisis en profundidad de estos problemas, se sugiere el uso de enfoques cualitativos y una participación activa de las partes interesadas locales. Se recomienda estudiar los umbrales ecológicos a escala regional para apoyar la investigación sobre la sostenibilidad regional. La evaluación de los procesos y resultados de los escenarios por parte de los investigadores locales indica que las evaluaciones de escenarios más transparentes son las más útiles. Las evaluaciones de escenarios centradas, directas e iterativas pueden ser muy relevantes al aportar información a los problemas de sostenibilidad seleccionados. Les scénarios sont devenus un outil clé pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité des changements régionaux et mondiaux. Dans cette étude, nous évaluons quatre évaluations de scénarios régionaux : premièrement, explorer un certain nombre de défis de recherche liés à la science de la durabilité et, deuxièmement, contribuer à la recherche sur la durabilité dans les études de cas spécifiques. Les quatre études de cas ont utilisé des approches de scénarios couramment appliquées qui sont (i) une approche d'histoire et de simulation avec la participation des parties prenantes dans le bassin versant d'Oum Zessar, en Tunisie, (ii) une exploration participative de scénarios dans la région de Rwenzori, en Ouganda, (iii) une étude pré-politique basée sur des modèles dans le delta intérieur du Niger, au Mali, et (iv) une analyse de scénarios basée sur le couplage de modèles dans le bassin supérieur de Thukela, en Afrique du Sud. Les évaluations de scénarios sont évaluées par rapport à un ensemble de défis connus en science de la durabilité, chaque défi étant représenté par deux indicateurs, complétés par une enquête réalisée sur la perception des évaluations de scénarios dans les régions d'étude de cas. Les résultats montrent que tous les types d'évaluations de scénarios répondent à de nombreux défis de durabilité, mais que les plus complexes basés sur l'histoire et la simulation et le couplage de modèles sont la plus complète. L'étude souligne la nécessité d'enquêter sur les changements brusques du système ainsi que sur les facteurs gouvernementaux et politiques en tant que sources importantes d'incertitude. Pour une analyse approfondie de ces questions, l'utilisation d'approches qualitatives et un engagement actif des parties prenantes locales sont suggérés. L'étude des seuils écologiques à l'échelle régionale est recommandée pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité régionale. L'évaluation des processus et des résultats des scénarios par les chercheurs locaux indique que les évaluations de scénarios les plus transparentes sont les plus utiles. Des évaluations de scénarios ciblées, simples, mais itératives peuvent être très pertinentes en fournissant des informations à des problèmes de durabilité sélectionnés. Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change.In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies.The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa.The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions.The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive.The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty.For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested.Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability.The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful.Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems. أصبحت السيناريوهات أداة رئيسية لدعم أبحاث الاستدامة حول التغيير الإقليمي والعالمي. في هذه الدراسة، نقوم بتقييم أربعة تقييمات للسيناريوهات الإقليمية: أولاً، لاستكشاف عدد من تحديات البحث المتعلقة بعلوم الاستدامة، وثانياً، للمساهمة في أبحاث الاستدامة في دراسات الحالة المحددة. استخدمت دراسات الحالة الأربع مناهج السيناريوهات المطبقة بشكل شائع والتي هي (1) نهج القصة والمحاكاة بمشاركة أصحاب المصلحة في مستجمعات مياه أم زسار، تونس، (2) استكشاف سيناريو تشاركي في منطقة روينزوري، أوغندا، (3) دراسة سياسة مسبقة قائمة على نموذج في دلتا النيجر الداخلية، مالي، و (4) تحليل سيناريو قائم على نموذج الاقتران في حوض ثوكيلا العلوي، جنوب أفريقيا. يتم تقييم تقييمات السيناريو مقابل مجموعة من التحديات المعروفة في علم الاستدامة، مع تمثيل كل تحدٍ بمؤشرين، يكملهما مسح تم إجراؤه على تصور تقييمات السيناريو داخل مناطق دراسة الحالة. تظهر النتائج أن جميع أنواع تقييمات السيناريو تعالج العديد من تحديات الاستدامة، ولكن التحديات الأكثر تعقيدًا القائمة على القصة والمحاكاة واقتران النموذج هي الأكثر شمولاً. تسلط الدراسة الضوء على الحاجة إلى التحقيق في التغييرات المفاجئة في النظام وكذلك العوامل الحكومية والسياسية كمصادر مهمة لعدم اليقين. للحصول على تحليل متعمق لهذه القضايا، يُقترح استخدام النهج النوعية والمشاركة النشطة لأصحاب المصلحة المحليين. يوصى بدراسة العتبات البيئية على المستوى الإقليمي لدعم البحوث المتعلقة بالاستدامة الإقليمية. يشير تقييم عمليات ونتائج السيناريو من قبل الباحثين المحليين إلى أن تقييمات السيناريو الأكثر شفافية هي الأكثر فائدة. يمكن أن تكون تقييمات السيناريو المركزة والمباشرة والمتكررة ذات صلة كبيرة من خلال المساهمة بالمعلومات في مشاكل الاستدامة المختارة.

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    Ecology and Society
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Other literature type . 2018
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Publication Database...arrow_drop_down
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      Ecology and Society
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Ecology and Society
      Article
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: UnpayWall
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Ecology and Society
      Article . 2018
      Data sources: DOAJ
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/mk...
      Other literature type . 2018
      Data sources: Datacite
      https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/pu...
      Other literature type . 2020
      License: CC BY NC
      Data sources: Datacite
      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/je...
      Other literature type . 2018
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Nicholls, R.; Marinova, N.; Lowe, J.; Brown, S.; +4 Authors

    The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

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    Research@WUR
    Article . 2011
    Data sources: Research@WUR
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Research@WUR
    Other literature type . 2011
    Data sources: Research@WUR
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
    Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Royal Society Data Sharing and Accessibility
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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  • image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Authors: Tagesson, T.; Smith, B.; Löfgren, A.; Rammig, A.; +2 Authors

    The aim of this study was to investigate a combination of satellite images of leaf area index (LAI) with process-based vegetation modeling for the accurate assessment of the carbon balances of Swedish forest ecosystems at the scale of a landscape. Monthly climatologic data were used as inputs in a dynamic vegetation model, the Lund Potsdam Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator. Model estimates of net primary production (NPP) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation were constrained by combining them with satellite-based LAI images using a general light use efficiency (LUE) model and the Beer-Lambert law. LAI estimates were compared with satellite-extrapolated field estimates of LAI, and the results were generally acceptable. NPP estimates directly from the dynamic vegetation model and estimates obtained by combining the model estimates with remote sensing information were, on average, well simulated but too homogeneous among vegetation types when compared with field estimates using forest inventory data.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Publication Database...arrow_drop_down
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    AMBIO
    Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Crossref
    AMBIO
    Article . 2010
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      AMBIO
      Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2010
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  • Authors: Lothar, M.; Winfried, B.; Winfried, S.; Vladimir, R.; +21 Authors

    Исследование ландшафтов всегда было традиционным научным направлением географии. В России подобная направленность исследований остаётся актуальной, несмотря на то, что термины «геоэкология» и «ландшафтная экология» сегодня более распространены в англоязычном научном сообществе. Наш краткий обзор показывает значительное ускорение антропогенных ландшафтных изменений в Европе, Центральной Азии и азиатской части России за последние пять десятилетий. Ландшафтные исследования в антропоцене должны быть направлены на достижение и сохранение устойчивости ландшафта при его высокой производительности, что включает в себя прекращение деградации ландшафтов, развитие культурных и сохранение природных ландшафтов. Чистая вода и чистый воздух, плодородные и здоровые почвы для производства продуктов питания и других экосистемных услуг, а также биологически разнообразная зеленая среда являются атрибутами ландшафтов, обеспечивающих выживание и благополучие населения. Дисциплинарные и междисциплинарные исследования должны генерировать знания, инновации и правила принятия действенных решений. Генерация знаний в глобализованном мире основана на сборе больших массивов данных и моделировании сценариев. Международные длительные полевые опыты и системы агроэкологического мониторинга будут предоставлять данные для экосистемных моделей и систем поддержки принимаемых решений. Landscape research has been a traditional scientific discipline of geography. This is still the case in Russia, whilst the terms geo-ecology and landscape ecology have become established in the English speaking scientific community. Our short review reveals huge and accelerating anthropogenic landscape transformations in Europe, Central Asia and Asian Russia since the end the 1960s. Landscape research in the Anthropocene has to focus on achieving landscape sustainability at high productivity. This includes halting landscape degradation, developing cultural landscapes, and maintaining semi-natural landscapes. Clean water and air, fertile and healthy soils for food and other ecosystem services and a green and bio-diverse environment are attributes of landscapes for the survival and well-being of humans. Research has to generate knowledge, innovations and decision rules by disciplinary, interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary work. Knowledge generation in a globalized world is based on big data gathering and scenario modelling. International long-term experiments and agri-environmental monitoring systems will deliver data for ecosystem models and decision support systems.

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  • Authors: Christian C. Voigt; Tanja M. Straka; Marcus Fritze;

    Although renewable energy production is widely accepted as clean, it is not necessarily environmental neutral since, for example, wind turbines kill large numbers of airborne animals such as bats. Consequently, stakeholders involved in the planning and operation of wind turbines are often in conflict when trying to reconcile both goals, namely, promoting wind energy production and protecting bats. We report the responses to an online questionnaire sent out to stakeholders to assess this conflict. More than 80% of stakeholders acknowledged the conflict between bat conservation and wind energy production; yet, the majority was confident about solutions and all desired an ecologically sustainable energy transition. All groups, except members of the wind energy sector, disagreed with the statements that wind energy production is of higher priority than biodiversity protection and that global warming is more critical than the biodiversity crisis. All groups agreed that more measures have to be taken to make wind energy production ecologically sustainable and that the society should be included to pay for the implementation of these measures. All stakeholders except for members of the wind energy sector agreed on that revenue losses from wind energy production and delays in the transition process should be acceptable to resolve the green–green dilemma. Among offered choices, most stakeholders suggested engaging in more research, improving the efficiency of energy use and implementing context dependent cut-in speed during wind turbine operation. The suggestion to weaken the legal protection of wildlife species was dismissed by all, underlining the consensus to protect biodiversity.

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    Authors: Val Snow; Lutz Merbold; Lutz Merbold; Robert M. Rees; +13 Authors

    AbstractProcess‐based models are useful for assessing the impact of changing management practices and climate on yields and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems such as grasslands. They can be used to construct national GHG inventories using a Tier 3 approach. However, accurate simulations of nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes remain challenging. Models are limited by our understanding of soil‐plant‐microbe interactions and the impact of uncertainty in measured input parameters on simulated outputs. To improve model performance, thorough evaluations against in situ measurements are needed. Experimental data of N2O emissions under two management practices (control with typical fertilization versus increased clover and no fertilization) were acquired in a Swiss field experiment. We conducted a multimodel evaluation with three commonly used biogeochemical models (DayCent in two variants, PaSim, APSIM in two variants) comparing four years of data. DayCent was the most accurate model for simulating N2O fluxes on annual timescales, while APSIM was most accurate for daily N2O fluxes. The multimodel ensemble average reduced the error in estimated annual fluxes by 41% compared to an estimate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‐derived method for the Swiss agricultural GHG inventory (IPCC‐Swiss), but individual models were not systematically more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss. The model ensemble overestimated the N2O mitigation effect of the clover‐based treatment (measured: 39–45%; ensemble: 52–57%) but was more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss (IPCC‐Swiss: 72–81%). These results suggest that multimodel ensembles are valuable for estimating the impact of climate and management on N2O emissions.

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    Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
    Article . 2020
    License: CC BY NC
    Data sources: Datacite
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Research Collection
    Article . 2020
    License: CC BY NC
    Data sources: Datacite
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    HAL INRAE
    Article . 2020
    Data sources: HAL INRAE
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Article . 2020
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      Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
      Article . 2020
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      Research Collection
      Article . 2020
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      HAL INRAE
      Article . 2020
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      Research Collection
      Article . 2020
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    Authors: Marta Reyes; Thomas J. Mozder; Thomas J. Mozder; Mark O. Gessner; +1 Authors

    AbstractIntraspecific variation in genotypically determined traits can influence ecosystem processes. Therefore, the impact of climate change on ecosystems may depend, in part, on the distribution of plant genotypes. Here we experimentally assess effects of climate warming and excess nitrogen supply on litter decomposition using 12 genotypes of a cosmopolitan foundation species collected across a 2100 km latitudinal gradient and grown in a common garden. Genotypically determined litter‐chemistry traits varied substantially within and among geographic regions, which strongly affected decomposition and the magnitude of warming effects, as warming accelerated litter mass loss of high‐nutrient, but not low‐nutrient, genotypes. Although increased nitrogen supply alone had no effect on decomposition, it strongly accelerated litter mass loss of all genotypes when combined with warming. Rates of microbial respiration associated with the leaf litter showed nearly identical responses as litter mass loss. These results highlight the importance of interactive effects of environmental factors and suggest that loss or gain of genetic variation associated with key phenotypic traits can buffer, or exacerbate, the impact of global change on ecosystem process rates in the future.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Global Change Biolog...arrow_drop_down
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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      Global Change Biology
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Kristin Nicolaus; Jens Jetzkowitz;

    Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are currently being discussed as one of the most promising tools in environmental and sustainability governance. However, much criticism has been voiced against overly optimistic assumptions of PES’ management potential towards sustainability. Several contributions to the debate show that PES fail both in reducing poverty and strengthening social justice. Additionally, they neglect problems of deliberation in decision-making, as well as the legitimacy of the applied environmental practices. Our empirical investigation on participatory and deliberative structures in already existing PES initiated by non-state actors contributes to the latter body of research. Based on the assumption that playing an active part in scheme design facilitates the consideration of justice and fairness, our case studies from Germany and the UK. present interesting results on the involvement of conflicting interests and their argumentation in the design process. Summing up these findings, we conclude that paying for ES rarely contributes to sustainable development in and of itself, but deliberatively designed schemes provide a formal setting to take aspects of justice into account.

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    Sustainability
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Sustainability
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    Sustainability
    Article . 2014
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      Sustainability
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      Sustainability
      Article . 2014
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Authors: Kopprio, Germán Adolfo; Biancalana, Florencia; Fricke, Anna; Garzon Cardona, John Edison; +2 Authors

    The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ LAReferencia - Red F...arrow_drop_down
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    CONICET Digital
    Article . 2015
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    Marine Pollution Bulletin
    Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      CONICET Digital
      Article . 2015
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      Marine Pollution Bulletin
      Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: M. Hoffmann; C. Hilton Taylor; A. Angulo; M. Bohm; +170 Authors

    Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

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    CORE
    Article . 2010
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    CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggregator)
    Article . 2010
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    Science
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    Science
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    HKU Scholars Hub
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    Authors: Julia Reinhardt; Stefan Liersch; Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim; Mori Diallo; +9 Authors

    Los escenarios se han convertido en una herramienta clave para apoyar la investigación de sostenibilidad sobre el cambio regional y global. En este estudio evaluamos cuatro evaluaciones de escenarios regionales: primero, para explorar una serie de desafíos de investigación relacionados con la ciencia de la sostenibilidad y, segundo, para contribuir a la investigación de sostenibilidad en los estudios de casos específicos. Los cuatro estudios de casos utilizaron enfoques de escenarios comúnmente aplicados que son (i) un enfoque de historia y simulación con participación de las partes interesadas en la cuenca hidrográfica de Oum Zessar, Túnez, (ii) una exploración participativa de escenarios en la región de Rwenzori, Uganda, (iii) un estudio de prepolíticas basado en modelos en el Delta Interior del Níger, Malí, y (iv) un análisis de escenarios basado en modelos de acoplamiento en la cuenca alta de Thukela, Sudáfrica. Las evaluaciones de escenarios se evalúan frente a un conjunto de desafíos conocidos en la ciencia de la sostenibilidad, con cada desafío representado por dos indicadores, complementados por una encuesta realizada sobre la percepción de las evaluaciones de escenarios dentro de las regiones de estudio de caso. Los resultados muestran que todos los tipos de evaluaciones de escenarios abordan muchos desafíos de sostenibilidad, pero que los más complejos basados en la historia y la simulación y el acoplamiento de modelos son: el más completo. El estudio destaca la necesidad de investigar los cambios abruptos del sistema, así como los factores gubernamentales y políticos como fuentes importantes de incertidumbre. Para un análisis en profundidad de estos problemas, se sugiere el uso de enfoques cualitativos y una participación activa de las partes interesadas locales. Se recomienda estudiar los umbrales ecológicos a escala regional para apoyar la investigación sobre la sostenibilidad regional. La evaluación de los procesos y resultados de los escenarios por parte de los investigadores locales indica que las evaluaciones de escenarios más transparentes son las más útiles. Las evaluaciones de escenarios centradas, directas e iterativas pueden ser muy relevantes al aportar información a los problemas de sostenibilidad seleccionados. Les scénarios sont devenus un outil clé pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité des changements régionaux et mondiaux. Dans cette étude, nous évaluons quatre évaluations de scénarios régionaux : premièrement, explorer un certain nombre de défis de recherche liés à la science de la durabilité et, deuxièmement, contribuer à la recherche sur la durabilité dans les études de cas spécifiques. Les quatre études de cas ont utilisé des approches de scénarios couramment appliquées qui sont (i) une approche d'histoire et de simulation avec la participation des parties prenantes dans le bassin versant d'Oum Zessar, en Tunisie, (ii) une exploration participative de scénarios dans la région de Rwenzori, en Ouganda, (iii) une étude pré-politique basée sur des modèles dans le delta intérieur du Niger, au Mali, et (iv) une analyse de scénarios basée sur le couplage de modèles dans le bassin supérieur de Thukela, en Afrique du Sud. Les évaluations de scénarios sont évaluées par rapport à un ensemble de défis connus en science de la durabilité, chaque défi étant représenté par deux indicateurs, complétés par une enquête réalisée sur la perception des évaluations de scénarios dans les régions d'étude de cas. Les résultats montrent que tous les types d'évaluations de scénarios répondent à de nombreux défis de durabilité, mais que les plus complexes basés sur l'histoire et la simulation et le couplage de modèles sont la plus complète. L'étude souligne la nécessité d'enquêter sur les changements brusques du système ainsi que sur les facteurs gouvernementaux et politiques en tant que sources importantes d'incertitude. Pour une analyse approfondie de ces questions, l'utilisation d'approches qualitatives et un engagement actif des parties prenantes locales sont suggérés. L'étude des seuils écologiques à l'échelle régionale est recommandée pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité régionale. L'évaluation des processus et des résultats des scénarios par les chercheurs locaux indique que les évaluations de scénarios les plus transparentes sont les plus utiles. Des évaluations de scénarios ciblées, simples, mais itératives peuvent être très pertinentes en fournissant des informations à des problèmes de durabilité sélectionnés. Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change.In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies.The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa.The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions.The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive.The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty.For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested.Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability.The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful.Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems. أصبحت السيناريوهات أداة رئيسية لدعم أبحاث الاستدامة حول التغيير الإقليمي والعالمي. في هذه الدراسة، نقوم بتقييم أربعة تقييمات للسيناريوهات الإقليمية: أولاً، لاستكشاف عدد من تحديات البحث المتعلقة بعلوم الاستدامة، وثانياً، للمساهمة في أبحاث الاستدامة في دراسات الحالة المحددة. استخدمت دراسات الحالة الأربع مناهج السيناريوهات المطبقة بشكل شائع والتي هي (1) نهج القصة والمحاكاة بمشاركة أصحاب المصلحة في مستجمعات مياه أم زسار، تونس، (2) استكشاف سيناريو تشاركي في منطقة روينزوري، أوغندا، (3) دراسة سياسة مسبقة قائمة على نموذج في دلتا النيجر الداخلية، مالي، و (4) تحليل سيناريو قائم على نموذج الاقتران في حوض ثوكيلا العلوي، جنوب أفريقيا. يتم تقييم تقييمات السيناريو مقابل مجموعة من التحديات المعروفة في علم الاستدامة، مع تمثيل كل تحدٍ بمؤشرين، يكملهما مسح تم إجراؤه على تصور تقييمات السيناريو داخل مناطق دراسة الحالة. تظهر النتائج أن جميع أنواع تقييمات السيناريو تعالج العديد من تحديات الاستدامة، ولكن التحديات الأكثر تعقيدًا القائمة على القصة والمحاكاة واقتران النموذج هي الأكثر شمولاً. تسلط الدراسة الضوء على الحاجة إلى التحقيق في التغييرات المفاجئة في النظام وكذلك العوامل الحكومية والسياسية كمصادر مهمة لعدم اليقين. للحصول على تحليل متعمق لهذه القضايا، يُقترح استخدام النهج النوعية والمشاركة النشطة لأصحاب المصلحة المحليين. يوصى بدراسة العتبات البيئية على المستوى الإقليمي لدعم البحوث المتعلقة بالاستدامة الإقليمية. يشير تقييم عمليات ونتائج السيناريو من قبل الباحثين المحليين إلى أن تقييمات السيناريو الأكثر شفافية هي الأكثر فائدة. يمكن أن تكون تقييمات السيناريو المركزة والمباشرة والمتكررة ذات صلة كبيرة من خلال المساهمة بالمعلومات في مشاكل الاستدامة المختارة.

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    Ecology and Society
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Ecology and Society
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    Ecology and Society
    Article . 2018
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/mk...
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/pu...
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      Ecology and Society
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Ecology and Society
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      Article . 2018
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/mk...
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    Authors: Nicholls, R.; Marinova, N.; Lowe, J.; Brown, S.; +4 Authors

    The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

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    Research@WUR
    Article . 2011
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    Other literature type . 2011
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    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
    Article . 2011 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Tagesson, T.; Smith, B.; Löfgren, A.; Rammig, A.; +2 Authors

    The aim of this study was to investigate a combination of satellite images of leaf area index (LAI) with process-based vegetation modeling for the accurate assessment of the carbon balances of Swedish forest ecosystems at the scale of a landscape. Monthly climatologic data were used as inputs in a dynamic vegetation model, the Lund Potsdam Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator. Model estimates of net primary production (NPP) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation were constrained by combining them with satellite-based LAI images using a general light use efficiency (LUE) model and the Beer-Lambert law. LAI estimates were compared with satellite-extrapolated field estimates of LAI, and the results were generally acceptable. NPP estimates directly from the dynamic vegetation model and estimates obtained by combining the model estimates with remote sensing information were, on average, well simulated but too homogeneous among vegetation types when compared with field estimates using forest inventory data.

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    AMBIO
    Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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    AMBIO
    Article . 2010
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      AMBIO
      Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2010
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