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An investigation into the effectiveness of bioretention cells (BCs) under potential climatic changes was conducted using representative concentration pathways. A case study of Guangzhou showed changes in peak runoff in climate change scenarios, with obvious growth in RCP8.5 and slight growth in RCP2.6. The performance of BCs on multiple parameters, including reduction of runoff volume, peak runoff, and first flush, were examined in different design storms using a hydrology model (SWMM). The effectiveness of BCs varied non-linearly with scale. Their performance fell by varying amounts in the various scenarios. BCs could provide sufficient effects in response to short-return-period and short-duration storms, but the performance of BCs decreased with heavy storms, especially considering climate change. Hence, BCs cannot replace grey infrastructure but should be integrated with them. The method developed in this study could be useful in the planning and design of low impact development in view of future climate changes.

Future scenarios modeling is used to investigate the effectiveness of the urban stormwater infrastructure and its response to potential future changes. The changes of urban stormwater, both in‐flow quantity and water quality, in response to climate change and urbanization are examined and tested in two highly developed urban catchments using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model. Similar responses are observed in the two catchments, despite their differences in size and land use. Flow quantity and water quality appears to be more sensitive to urbanization factors than to climatic change. With respect to factors attributable to urbanization, urban intensification (land use plus population density) has more of an effect than land‐use changes alone. Low‐impact development, as a key adaptation measure, could be effective in mitigating the adverse impacts of future changes on urban stormwater. The methodology developed in this study may be useful for urban stormwater planning and testing such plans against future urbanization and climate change scenarios.