• Energy Research
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The concept of resilience is a crucial part in crafting visions of desirable futures designed to withstand the widest variety of external shocks to the system. Backcasting scenarios are widely used to envision desirable futures with a discontinuous change from the present in mind. However, less effort has been devoted to developing theoretical frameworks and methods for building backcasting scenarios with a particular focus on resilience, although resilience has been explored in related sustainability fields. This paper proposes a method that helps design backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. A characteristic of the method is to delineate “collapse” futures, based upon which resilient futures are described to avoid the various collapsed states. In the process of designing backcasting scenarios, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to support the generation of various risk factors and countermeasures to improve resilience. In order to test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we provide a case study to describe resilient energy systems for a Japanese community to 2030. Four expert workshops involving researchers from different disciplines were organized to generate diversified ideas on resilient energy systems. The results show that three scenarios of collapsed energy systems were described, in which policy options to be taken toward achieving resilient energy systems were derived.

The concept of resilience is a crucial part in crafting visions of desirable futures designed to withstand the widest variety of external shocks to the system. Backcasting scenarios are widely used to envision desirable futures with a discontinuous change from the present in mind. However, less effort has been devoted to developing theoretical frameworks and methods for building backcasting scenarios with a particular focus on resilience, although resilience has been explored in related sustainability fields. This paper proposes a method that helps design backcasting scenarios for resilient futures. A characteristic of the method is to delineate “collapse” futures, based upon which resilient futures are described to avoid the various collapsed states. In the process of designing backcasting scenarios, fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to support the generation of various risk factors and countermeasures to improve resilience. In order to test the effectiveness of the proposed method, we provide a case study to describe resilient energy systems for a Japanese community to 2030. Four expert workshops involving researchers from different disciplines were organized to generate diversified ideas on resilient energy systems. The results show that three scenarios of collapsed energy systems were described, in which policy options to be taken toward achieving resilient energy systems were derived.

Abstract The earth’s climate is changing, with global warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions driven by economic and population growth. Human systems and ecosystems vary in their exposure, mitigation and adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to various forms of climate change. Once mitigation and adaptation efforts have been exhausted, vulnerability remains. Data compiled by the University of Notre Dame covering over 100 nations in 2016 were used to construct a new composite climate change vulnerability index that features endogenously generated weights to aggregate vulnerability indices across six vulnerable sectors. These weights have the potential to inform policy aimed at allocating resources to reduce the cost of limiting vulnerability. The new composite vulnerability index, whose weights differ across sectors and across nations, is compared with the Notre Dame vulnerability index, which uses weights equal across sectors and constant across nations. Although the two indices agree on the identity of the most vulnerable nations, there is a statistically significant difference between the two indices. In addition, a nonparametric statistical test failed to reject the null hypothesis that one sectoral index could be deleted from the composite index without significant loss of information. This also has potentially important policy implications.

Abstract The earth’s climate is changing, with global warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions driven by economic and population growth. Human systems and ecosystems vary in their exposure, mitigation and adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to various forms of climate change. Once mitigation and adaptation efforts have been exhausted, vulnerability remains. Data compiled by the University of Notre Dame covering over 100 nations in 2016 were used to construct a new composite climate change vulnerability index that features endogenously generated weights to aggregate vulnerability indices across six vulnerable sectors. These weights have the potential to inform policy aimed at allocating resources to reduce the cost of limiting vulnerability. The new composite vulnerability index, whose weights differ across sectors and across nations, is compared with the Notre Dame vulnerability index, which uses weights equal across sectors and constant across nations. Although the two indices agree on the identity of the most vulnerable nations, there is a statistically significant difference between the two indices. In addition, a nonparametric statistical test failed to reject the null hypothesis that one sectoral index could be deleted from the composite index without significant loss of information. This also has potentially important policy implications.

AbstractClimate change, migration, and conflict have been featured prominently in academic and policy literature. While Africa remains the major reference point, studies on key conflict hotspots fail to adequately examine empirical demonstrations of how climate change forces migration, and consequently major conflicts. Drawing on semi‐structured interviews, focus group discussions, and employing the scarcity theory in a study of Agogo (Ghana), we illustrate how regional and local climate/environmental variability and scarcity trigger and sustain migration and farmer–herder conflicts. The findings offer insights into how other non‐climatic and ecological conditions reinforce the so‐called climate‐induced conflicts, exposing the limitations of the scarcity‐theory. Importantly, this study has provided an illustrative argument centered around the contextual dynamics of the nexus between climate change and farmer–herder conflict in Agogo to contribute to national, regional, and continental discussion on this critical topic.

AbstractClimate change, migration, and conflict have been featured prominently in academic and policy literature. While Africa remains the major reference point, studies on key conflict hotspots fail to adequately examine empirical demonstrations of how climate change forces migration, and consequently major conflicts. Drawing on semi‐structured interviews, focus group discussions, and employing the scarcity theory in a study of Agogo (Ghana), we illustrate how regional and local climate/environmental variability and scarcity trigger and sustain migration and farmer–herder conflicts. The findings offer insights into how other non‐climatic and ecological conditions reinforce the so‐called climate‐induced conflicts, exposing the limitations of the scarcity‐theory. Importantly, this study has provided an illustrative argument centered around the contextual dynamics of the nexus between climate change and farmer–herder conflict in Agogo to contribute to national, regional, and continental discussion on this critical topic.

Global organizations providing network relations for cities are bourgeoning. Organizations such as Metropolis, UN-Habitat, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, the Global Compact Cities Programme, and the C40, as well as City-to-City arrangements, have become increasingly important to managing urban networking and global urban governance. The growing literature on global urban networking tends to assume that networking is bringing positive outcomes for urban development and that increased connectivity is making a significant difference to enhancing political engagement in itself. In practice, there is considerable interchange happening, and globally accessible websites and global newsletters outlining the latest and best practices are omnipresent. However, to what extent networked relations provide direct guidance for governance, let alone change existing paradigms, remains unclear. This chapter explores the added value of networked relations, asking more specifically how different forms of networking and various forms of knowledge exchange are acknowledged in efficaciously enhancing work in urban sustainability.

Global organizations providing network relations for cities are bourgeoning. Organizations such as Metropolis, UN-Habitat, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, the Global Compact Cities Programme, and the C40, as well as City-to-City arrangements, have become increasingly important to managing urban networking and global urban governance. The growing literature on global urban networking tends to assume that networking is bringing positive outcomes for urban development and that increased connectivity is making a significant difference to enhancing political engagement in itself. In practice, there is considerable interchange happening, and globally accessible websites and global newsletters outlining the latest and best practices are omnipresent. However, to what extent networked relations provide direct guidance for governance, let alone change existing paradigms, remains unclear. This chapter explores the added value of networked relations, asking more specifically how different forms of networking and various forms of knowledge exchange are acknowledged in efficaciously enhancing work in urban sustainability.