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# Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances\_Table S1 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rfj6q57gz](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rfj6q57gz) The dataset provides a summary of all publications included in the analysis for this study and the key statistics obtained from the studies and used in the analyses. The dataset includes details about the publication, spatial identifiers (e.g. realm, province, ecoregion) unique site code, information on the disturbance type and timing, the pre-and post-disturbance coral cover, the 5-year annual recovery rate, the recovery shape and recovery completeness classifications. Please see details Methods in the journal article "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography. ## Description of the data and file structure Each column provides the following information: | Column | Detail | | ------ | ------ | | Realm | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Province | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Ecoregion | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Unique study identifier | Unique identifiers for the lowest sampling unit in the dataset. In cases where there were data for different regions, reefs, islands/atolls, sites, reef zones, depths, and/or multiple disturbances within a publication or time-series, data from these publications were divided into separate ‘studies’. | | Publication/Dataset | Unique identifiers for the publication or dataset (generally the surname of the first author followed by the year of publication). | | Publication title | Title of the publication or dataset from which the data were sourced. | | Publication year | Year the publication from the which the data were sourced was published. | | Country/Territory | Name of the country or location from which the data came. | | Site latitude | Latitude of the study site from where the data came. | | Site longitude | Longitude of the study site from where the data came. | | Disturbance type | Classification of disturbance: Temperature stress, Cyclone/ severe storm, Runoff or Multiple. | | Disturbance.year | Year of the disturbance. | | Mean coral cover pre-disturbance | Pre-disturbance coral cover as extracted from the publication or dataset as the closest data point prior to disturbance. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Mean coral cover post-disturbance | Post-disturbance coral cover as extracted from the publication or dataset as the closest data point prior to disturbance. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Impact (lnRR) | Impact measure: the log response ratio of pre- to post-disturbance percentage coral cover. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Time-averaged recovery rate | Recovery rate as percentage coral cover per year in the approximate 5-year time window following disturbance. See main Methods text in manuscript for more detail. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in the calculation of recovery rate. | | Recovery shape | Recovery shape category: linear, accelerating, decelerating, logistic, flatline or null. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in classification of recovery shape. | | Recovery completeness | Recovery completeness category: complete recovery – coral is observed to reach its pre-disturbance coral cover, signs of recovery – a positive trajectory but not reaching pre-disturbance cover in the time period examined, undetermined – no clear pattern in recovery, the null model was the top model, no recovery – the null model was the top model but the linear model had slope and standard error in slope near zero and further decline – the top model had a negative trend. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in classification of recovery shape. | | Reference | Source for the data. | ## Sharing/Access information Data was derived from the following sources: **Appendix 1. Full list of references providing the data used in impact and recovery analyses supporting Table S1** Arceo, H. O., Quibilan, M. C., Aliño, P. M., Lim, G., & Licuanan, W. Y. (2001). Coral bleaching in Philippine reefs: Coincident evidences with mesoscale thermal anomalies. Bulletin of Marine Science, 69(2), 579-593. Aronson, R. B., Precht, W. F., Toscano, M. A., & Koltes, K. H. (2002). The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology, 141(3), 435-447. Aronson, R. B., Sebens, K. P., & Ebersole, J. P. (1994). Hurricane Hugo's impact on Salt River submarine canyon, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. Proceedings of the colloquium on global aspects of coral reefs, Miami, 1993, 189-195. Bahr, K. D., Rodgers, K. S., & Jokiel, P. L. (2017). Impact of three bleaching events on the reef resiliency of Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4(DEC). Baird, A. H., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Cumbo, V. R., Connolly, S. R., Dornelas, M., & Madin, J. S. (2018). Effects of tropical storms on the demography of reef corals. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 606, 29-38. Barranco, L. M., Carriquiry, J. D., Rodríguez-Zaragoza, F. A., Cupul-Magaña, A. L., Villaescusa, J. A., & Calderón-Aguilera, L. E. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations of live coral cover in the Northern Mesoamerican reef system, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Scientia Marina, 80(2), 143-150. Bastidas, C., Bone, D., Croquer, A., Debrot, D., Garcia, E., Humanes, A., . . . Rodríguez, S. (2012). Massive hard coral loss after a severe bleaching event in 2010 at Los Roques, Venezuela. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 60(SUPPL. 1), 29-37. Booth, D. J., & Beretta, G. A. (2002). Changes in a fish assemblage after a coral bleaching event. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 245, 205-212. Brandl, S. J., Emslie, M. J., & Ceccarelli, D. M. (2016). Habitat degradation increases functional originality in highly diverse coral reef fish assemblages. Ecosphere, 7(11). Brown, D., & Edmunds, P. J. (2013). Long-term changes in the population dynamics of the Caribbean hydrocoral Millepora spp. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 441, 62-70. Brown, V. B., Davies, S. A., & Synnot, R. N. (1990). Long-term Monitoring of the Effects of Treated Sewage Effluent on the Intertidal Macroalgal Community Near Cape Schanck, Victoria, Australia. Botanica Marina, 33(1), 85-98. Bruckner, A. W., Coward, G., Bimson, K., & Rattanawongwan, T. (2017). Predation by feeding aggregations of Drupella spp. inhibits the recovery of reefs damaged by a mass bleaching event. Coral Reefs, 36(4), 1181-1187. Burt, J. 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Mass coral bleaching due to unprecedented marine heatwave in Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (Northwestern Hawaiian Islands). PLoS ONE, 12(9). Crabbe, M. J. C. (2014). Evidence of initial coral community recovery at Discovery Bay on Jamaica’s north coast. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 62, 137-140. Crosbie, A. J., Bridge, T. C., Jones, G., & Baird, A. H. (2019). Response of reef corals and fish at Osprey Reef to a thermal anomaly across a 30 m depth gradient. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 622, 93-102. Darling, E. S., McClanahan, T. R., & Côté, I. M. (2010). Combined effects of two stressors on Kenyan coral reefs are additive or antagonistic, not synergistic. Conservation Letters, 3(2), 122-130. De Bakker, D. M., Meesters, E. H., Bak, R. P. M., Nieuwland, G., & Van Duyl, F. C. (2016). Long-term Shifts in Coral Communities On Shallow to Deep Reef Slopes of Curaçao and Bonaire: Are There Any Winners? Frontiers in Marine Science, 3(247). Depczynski, M., Gilmour, J. 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(2016). 27 years of benthic and coral community dynamics on turbid, highly urbanised reefs off Singapore. Scientific Reports, 6. Guillemot, N., Chabanet, P., & Le Pape, O. (2010). Cyclone effects on coral reef habitats in New Caledonia (South Pacific). Coral Reefs, 29(2), 445-453. Guzmán, H. M., & Cortés, J. (2001). Changes in reef community structure after fifteen years of natural disturbances in the Eastern Pacific (Costa Rica). Bulletin of Marine Science, 69(1), 133-149. Guzman, H. M., Cortes, J., Richmond, R. H., & Glynn, P. W. (1987). Effects of "El Nino - Southern oscillation' 1982/83 in the coral reefs at Isla del Cano, Costa Rica. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 35(2), 325-332. Haapkylä, J., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Flavell, M., & Willis, B. L. (2013). Disease outbreaks, bleaching and a cyclone drive changes in coral assemblages on an inshore reef of the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs, 32(3), 815-824. Hagan, A., & Spencer, T. (2008). Reef resilience and change 1998–2007, Alphonse Atoll, Seychelles. Paper presented at the Proc 11th Int Coral Reef Symp. Harii, S., Hongo, C., Ishihara, M., Ide, Y., & Kayanne, H. (2014). Impacts of multiple disturbances on coral communities at Ishigaki Island, Okinawa, Japan, during a 15 year survey. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 509, 171-180. Harrison, H. B., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Baird, A. H., Heron, S. F., MacDonald, C., & Hughes, T. P. (2018). Back-to-back coral bleaching events on isolated atolls in the Coral Sea. Coral Reefs. Holbrook, S. J., Adam, T. C., Edmunds, P. J., Schmitt, R. J., Carpenter, R. C., Brooks, A. J., . . . Briggs, C. J. (2018). Recruitment Drives Spatial Variation in Recovery Rates of Resilient Coral Reefs. Scientific Reports, 8(1). Hongo, C., & Yamano, H. (2013). Species-Specific Responses of Corals to Bleaching Events on Anthropogenically Turbid Reefs on Okinawa Island, Japan, over a 15-year Period (1995-2009). PLoS ONE, 8(4). Huang, H., Yang, Y., Li, X., Yang, J., Lian, J., Lei, X., . . . Zhang, J. (2014). Benthic community changes following the 2010 Hainan flood: Implications for reef resilience. Marine Biology Research, 10(6), 601-611. Hughes, T. P. (1994). Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large-scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef. Science, 265(5178), 1547-1551. Jokiel, P. L., Hunter, C. L., Taguchi, S., & Watarai, L. (1993). Ecological impact of a fresh-water "reef kill" in Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Coral Reefs, 12(3-4), 177-184. Jones, A. M., & Berkelmans, R. (2014). Flood impacts in Keppel Bay, Southern Great Barrier Reef in the aftermath of cyclonic rainfall. PLoS ONE, 9(1). Jonker, M., Johns, K., & Osborne, K. (2008). Surveys of benthic reef communities using underwater digital photography and counts of juveniles. Long-term monitoring of the Great Barrier Reef Standard Operation Procedure Number 10. Retrieved from Townsville: Kuo, C. Y., Yuen, Y. S., Meng, P. J., Ho, P. H., Wang, J. 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W. (2019). Managing Recovery Resilience in Coral Reefs Against Climate-Induced Bleaching and Hurricanes: A 15 Year Case Study From Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(265). Stobart, B., Teleki, K., Buckley, R., Downing, N., & Callow, M. (2005). Coral recovery at Aldabra Atoll, Seychelles: Five years after the 1998 bleaching event. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363(1826), 251-255. Torda, G., Sambrook, K., Cross, P., Sato, Y., Bourne, D. G., Lukoschek, V., . . . Willis, B. L. (2018). Decadal erosion of coral assemblages by multiple disturbances in the Palm Islands, central Great Barrier Reef. Scientific Reports, 8(1). Trapon, M. L., Pratchett, M. S., & Penin, L. (2011). Comparative effects of different disturbances in coral reef habitats in Moorea, French Polynesia. Journal of Marine Biology, 2011. Tsounis, G., & Edmunds, P. J. (2017). Three decades of coral reef community dynamics in St. John, USVI: A contrast of scleractinians and octocorals. Ecosphere, 8(1). Van Woesik, R., De Vantier, L. M., & Glazebrook, J. S. (1995). Effects of Cyclone "Joy' on nearshore coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 128(1-3), 261-270. Van Woesik, R., Sakai, K., Ganase, A., & Loya, Y. (2011). Revisiting the winners and the losers a decade after coral bleaching. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 434, 67-76. Vercelloni, J., Kayal, M., Chancerelle, Y., & Planes, S. (2019). Exposure, vulnerability, and resiliency of French Polynesian coral reefs to environmental disturbances. Scientific Reports, 9(1). Walsh, W. J. (1983). Stability of a coral reef fish community following a catastrophic storm. Coral Reefs, 2(1), 49-63. Wilkinson, C. (2004). Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004 (Vol. 2). Queensland, Australia: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. Wilkinson, C. R., & Souter, D. (2008). Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Wismer, S., Tebbett, S. B., Streit, R. P., & Bellwood, D. R. (2019). Spatial mismatch in fish and coral loss following 2016 mass coral bleaching. Science of the Total Environment, 650, 1487-1498. Woolsey, E., Bainbridge, S. J., Kingsford, M. J., & Byrne, M. (2012). Impacts of cyclone Hamish at One Tree Reef: Integrating environmental and benthic habitat data. Marine Biology, 159(4), 793-803. Aim: Understand the interplay between resistance and recovery on coral reefs, and investigate dependence on pre- and post-disturbance states, to inform generalisable reef resilience theory across large spatial and temporal scales. Location: Tropical coral reefs globally. Time period: 1966 to 2017. Major taxa studied: Scleratinian hard corals. Methods: We conducted a literature search to compile a global dataset of total coral cover before and after acute storms, temperature stress, and coastal runoff from flooding events. We used meta-regression to identify variables that explained significant variation in disturbance impact, including disturbance type, year, depth, and pre-disturbance coral cover. We further investigated the influence of these same variables, as well as post-disturbance coral cover and disturbance impact, on recovery rate. We examined the shape of recovery, assigning qualitatively distinct, ecologically relevant, population growth trajectories: linear, logistic, logarithmic (decelerating), and a second-order quadratic (accelerating). Results: We analysed 427 disturbance impacts and 117 recovery trajectories. Accelerating and logistic were the most common recovery shapes, underscoring non-linearities and recovery lags. A complex but meaningful relationship between the state of a reef pre- and post-disturbance, disturbance impact magnitude, and recovery rate was identified. Fastest recovery rates were predicted for intermediate to large disturbance impacts, but a decline in this rate was predicted when more than ~75% of pre-disturbance cover was lost. We identified a shifting baseline, with declines in both pre-and post-disturbance coral cover over the 50 year study period. Main conclusions: We breakdown the complexities of coral resilience, showing interplay between resistance and recovery, as well as dependence on both pre- and post-disturbance states, alongside documenting a chronic decline in these states. This has implications for predicting coral reef futures and implementing actions to enhance resilience. The dataset provides a summary of all studies included in the analysis and the key statistics obtained from the studies and used in the analyses for the manuscript entitled "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography. The dataset includes details about the publication, spatial identifiers (e.g. realm, province, ecoregion) unique site code, information on the disturbance type and timing, the pre-and post-disturbance coral cover, the 5-year annual recovery rate, the recovery shape and recovery completeness classifications. Please see details Methods in the journal article "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography.

Large-scale reforestation can potentially bring both benefits and risks to the water cycle, which needs to be better quantified under future climates to inform reforestation decisions. We identified 477 water-insecure basins worldwide accounting for 44.6% (380.2 Mha) of the global reforestation potential. As many of these basins are in the Asia-Pacific, we used regional coupled land-climate modelling for the period 2041–2070 to reveal that reforestation increases evapotranspiration and precipitation for most water-insecure regions over the Asia-Pacific. This resulted in a statistically significant increase in water yield (p < 0.05) for the Loess Plateau-North China Plain, Yangtze Plain, Southeast China and Irrawaddy regions. Precipitation feedback was influenced by the degree of initial moisture limitation affecting soil moisture response and thus evapotranspiration, as well as precipitation advection from other reforested regions and moisture transport away from the local region. Reforestation also reduces the probability of extremely dry months in most of the water-insecure regions. However, some regions experience non-significant declines in net water yield due to heightened evapotranspiration outstripping increases in precipitation, or declines in soil moisture and advected precipitation. This dataset contains raw data outputs for Teo et al. (2022), Global Change Biology. Please see the published paper for further details on methods. For enquiries, please contact the corresponding authors: hcteo [at] u.nus.edu or lianpinkoh [at] nus.edu.sg.  Shapefiles can be opened with any GIS program such as ArcMap or QGIS. CSV files can be opened with any spreadsheet program such as Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice.

1. Predicted changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events in the UK have the potential to disrupt terrestrial ecosystem function. However, responses of different trophic levels to these changes in rainfall patterns, and the underlying mechanisms, are not well characterised. 2. This study aimed to investigate how changes in both the quantity and frequency of rainfall events will affect the outcome of interactions between plants, insect herbivores (above- and below- ground) and natural enemies. 3. Hordeum vulgare L. plants were grown in controlled conditions and in the field, and subjected to three precipitation scenarios: ambient (based on a local 10 year average rainfall); continuous drought (40% reduction compared to ambient); drought/ deluge (40% reduction compared to ambient at a reduced frequency). The effects of these watering regimes and wireworm (Agriotes species) root herbivory on the performance of the plants, aphid herbivores above-ground (Sitobion avenae, Metapolophium dirhodum and Rhopalosiphum padi), and natural enemies of aphids including ladybirds (Harmonia axyridis) were assessed from measurements of plant growth, insect abundance and mass, and assays of feeding behaviour. 4. Continuous drought decreased plant biomass, whereas reducing the frequency of watering events did not affect plant biomass but did alter plant chemical composition. In controlled conditions, continuous drought ameliorated the negative impact of wireworms on plant biomass. 5. Compared to the ambient treatment, aphid mass was increased by 15% when feeding on plants subjected to drought/ deluge; and ladybirds were 66% heavier when feeding on these aphids but this did not affect ladybird prey choice. In field conditions, wireworms feeding below-ground reduced the number of shoot-feeding aphids under ambient and continuous drought conditions but not under drought/ deluge. 6. Predicted changes in both the frequency and intensity of precipitation events under climate change have the potential to limit plant growth, but reduce wireworm herbivory, while simultaneously promoting above-ground aphid numbers and mass, with these effects transferring to the third trophic level. Understanding the effect of future changes in precipitation on species interactions is critical for determining their potential impact on ecosystem functioning and constructing accurate predictions under global change scenarios. Controlled environment and field experimental dataData file containing all data reported in the paper including plant, soil and insect data from controlled environment and field experiments. First spreadsheet in the data file contains a key to explain all abbreviations used throughout the file.Experimental data.xlsx

The impacts of increasing natural climate disasters are threatening food security in the Asia-Pacific region. Rice is Asia’s most important staple food. Climate variability and change directly impact rice production, through changes in rainfall, temperature and CO2 concentrations. The key for sustainable rice crop is water management. Adaptation can occur through shifts of cropping to higher latitudes and can profit from river systems (via irrigation) so far not considered. New opportunities arise to produce more than one crop per year in cooler areas. Asian wheat production in 2005 represents about 43 % of the global total. Changes in agronomic practices, such as earlier plant dates and cultivar substitution will be required. Fisheries play a crucial role in providing food security with the contribution of fish to dietary animal protein being very high in the region – up to 90 % in small island developing states (SIDS). With the warming of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and increased acidification, marine ecosystems are presently under stress. Despite these trends, maintaining or enhancing food production from the sea is critical. However, future sustainability must be maintained whilst also securing biodiversity conservation. Improved fisheries management to address the existing non-climate threats remains paramount in the Indian and Pacific Oceans with sustainable management regimes being established. Climate-related impacts are expected to increase in magnitude over the coming decades, thus preliminary adaptation to climate change is valuable.

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AbstractRising atmospheric [CO2] and associated climate change are expected to modify primary productivity across a range of ecosystems globally. Increasing aridity is predicted to reduce grassland productivity, although rising [CO2] and associated increases in plant water use efficiency may partially offset the effect of drying on growth. Difficulties arise in predicting the direction and magnitude of future changes in ecosystem productivity, due to limited field experimentation investigating climate and CO2 interactions. We use repeat near‐surface digital photography to quantify the effects of water availability and experimentally manipulated elevated [CO2] (eCO2) on understorey live foliage cover and biomass over three growing seasons in a temperate grassy woodland in south‐eastern Australia. We hypothesised that (i) understorey herbaceous productivity is dependent upon soil water availability, and (ii) that eCO2 will increase productivity, with greatest stimulation occurring under conditions of low water availability. Soil volumetric water content (VWC) determined foliage cover and growth rates over the length of the growing season (August to March), with low VWC (<0.1 m3 m−3) reducing productivity. However, eCO2 did not increase herbaceous cover and biomass over the duration of the experiment, or mitigate the effects of low water availability on understorey growth rates and cover. Our findings suggest that projected increases in aridity in temperate woodlands are likely to lead to reduced understorey productivity, with little scope for eCO2 to offset these changes.

Abstract Recent publications on the successful mineralisation of carbon dioxide in basalts in Iceland and Washington State, USA, have shown that mineral storage can be a serious alternative to more mainstream geologic carbon storage efforts to lock away permanently carbon dioxide. In this study we look at the pore solution chemistry and mineralogy of basaltic glass and crystalline basalt under post-injection conditions, i.e. after rise of the pH via matrix dissolution and the first phase of carbonate formation. Experimental findings indicate that further precipitation of carbonates under more alkaline conditions is highly dependent on the availability of divalent cations. If the pore water is deficient in divalent cations, smectites and/or zeolites will dominate the secondary mineralogy of the pore space, depending on the basalt matrix. At low carbonate alkalinity no additional secondary carbonates are expected to form meaning the remaining pore space is lost to secondary silicates, irrespective of the basalt matrix. At high carbonate alkalinity, some of this limited storage volume may additionally be occupied by dawsonite −if the Na concentration in the percolating groundwater (brine) is high. Using synthetic seawater as a proxy for the groundwater composition and thus furnishing considerable amounts of divalent cations to the carbonated solution, results in massive precipitation of calcite, magnesite, and other Ca/Mg-carbonates under already moderate carbonate alkalinity. More efficient use of the basaltic storage volume can thus be attained by promoting formation of secondary carbonates compared to the inevitable formation of secondary silicate phases at higher pH. This can be done by ensuring that the pore water does not become depleted in divalent cations, even after carbonate formation. Using seawater as carbonating fluid or injection of CO2 into the basaltic oceanic crust, where saline fluids percolate, can reach this goal. However, such an approach needs sophisticated reactive transport modelling to adjust CO2 injection rates in order to avoid too rapid carbonate deposition and clogging of the pore space too close to the injection well.