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Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

In recent decades, many societal changes have unfolded, including population ageing, reconfigurations of household structures, labour market transformation, and a secular deceleration of economic growth. These shifts pose considerable challenges to preexisting welfare states, particularly to the efficacy of countries’ pension systems. This dissertation examines the context and trajectory of pension reforms in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Its contribution is to ascertain the viability and political feasibility of reforms that enhance the financial sustainability of their pension systems, while maintaining adequate income and coverage levels. The dissertation builds on political economy approaches and on the institutionalist literature, which highlight how the role of interest groups and structure of institutions and political systems shape policy outcomes. The frameworks of blame avoidance and credit-claiming are also considered, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics surrounding pension systems and reform efforts. This dissertation uses a mixed-methods approach – including public opinion surveys of 3,000+ individuals, semi-structured elite interviews, historical document analyses, and specialized fiscal and actuarial projections of selected pension reforms in the three selected countries. It addresses three core research questions: 1) What is the current context for pension reform in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States given their histories? 2) Is the necessary (for achieving specific minimum levels of sustainability, adequacy, and coverage) pension reform politically feasible? 3) How do the characteristics of each reform affect its political feasibility? Corollary: The modification of which channel (benefits, contributions, retirement age) is perceived as more politically feasible for diverse stakeholders? The methodology chosen provides a timely picture of the context surrounding potential pension reforms in the three case studies. In Mexico, credit-claiming and the interests of private stakeholders explain the success of recent pension reforms, and partisan politics are the key determinants for future fiscal changes. For the United Kingdom, the institutionalist literature helps explain the reasons for the relatively easier reform avenues; the most politically feasible reforms are those in the private sector, while the housing market is of key importance for pensions. In the United States, the institutionalist literature and the framework of blame avoidance also help explain the current legislative gridlock and the reasons why no major reform has been enacted for decades. For Mexico and the United Kingdom there exist politically feasible reforms, notably a modification of the retirement age channel, that can increase the system’s sustainability while maintaining income adequacy and coverage; whereas based on the current context of extreme polarisation and legislative gridlock, there do not seem to exist politically feasible pension reforms that preserve the structure of Social Security in the United States. The dissertation brings the lens of political feasibility to bear on a previously technical literature on the structure of the pension systems in the three countries, and thus on the feasibility of reform to deliver financial sustainability, adequacy of retirement incomes, and adequate coverage of the old age population. It identifies the feasible routes for reform in Mexico and the United Kingdom, but concludes that the political economy context the United States has reached rules out feasible reforms of its current pension structures.

In recent decades, many societal changes have unfolded, including population ageing, reconfigurations of household structures, labour market transformation, and a secular deceleration of economic growth. These shifts pose considerable challenges to preexisting welfare states, particularly to the efficacy of countries’ pension systems. This dissertation examines the context and trajectory of pension reforms in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Its contribution is to ascertain the viability and political feasibility of reforms that enhance the financial sustainability of their pension systems, while maintaining adequate income and coverage levels. The dissertation builds on political economy approaches and on the institutionalist literature, which highlight how the role of interest groups and structure of institutions and political systems shape policy outcomes. The frameworks of blame avoidance and credit-claiming are also considered, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics surrounding pension systems and reform efforts. This dissertation uses a mixed-methods approach – including public opinion surveys of 3,000+ individuals, semi-structured elite interviews, historical document analyses, and specialized fiscal and actuarial projections of selected pension reforms in the three selected countries. It addresses three core research questions: 1) What is the current context for pension reform in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States given their histories? 2) Is the necessary (for achieving specific minimum levels of sustainability, adequacy, and coverage) pension reform politically feasible? 3) How do the characteristics of each reform affect its political feasibility? Corollary: The modification of which channel (benefits, contributions, retirement age) is perceived as more politically feasible for diverse stakeholders? The methodology chosen provides a timely picture of the context surrounding potential pension reforms in the three case studies. In Mexico, credit-claiming and the interests of private stakeholders explain the success of recent pension reforms, and partisan politics are the key determinants for future fiscal changes. For the United Kingdom, the institutionalist literature helps explain the reasons for the relatively easier reform avenues; the most politically feasible reforms are those in the private sector, while the housing market is of key importance for pensions. In the United States, the institutionalist literature and the framework of blame avoidance also help explain the current legislative gridlock and the reasons why no major reform has been enacted for decades. For Mexico and the United Kingdom there exist politically feasible reforms, notably a modification of the retirement age channel, that can increase the system’s sustainability while maintaining income adequacy and coverage; whereas based on the current context of extreme polarisation and legislative gridlock, there do not seem to exist politically feasible pension reforms that preserve the structure of Social Security in the United States. The dissertation brings the lens of political feasibility to bear on a previously technical literature on the structure of the pension systems in the three countries, and thus on the feasibility of reform to deliver financial sustainability, adequacy of retirement incomes, and adequate coverage of the old age population. It identifies the feasible routes for reform in Mexico and the United Kingdom, but concludes that the political economy context the United States has reached rules out feasible reforms of its current pension structures.

The aggravating global problems of energy crisis, rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accumulation of persistent waste have attracted the attention of scientists, policy-makers and global organisations to come up with effective and expeditious solutions to address these challenges. In this context, the development of sustainable technologies driven by renewable energy sources for the production of clean fuels and commodity chemicals from diverse waste feedstocks is an appealing approach towards creating a circular economy. Over the years, semiconductor photocatalysts based on TiO₂, CdS, carbon-nitrides (CNx) and carbon dots (CDs) have been widely used for the photocatalytic reforming (PC reforming) of pre-treated waste substrates to organic products, accompanied with clean hydrogen (H₂) generation. However, these conventional solar-driven processes suffer from major drawbacks such as low production rates, poor product selectivity, CO₂ release, challenging process and catalyst optimisation, and harsh waste pre-treatment conditions, which limit their commercial applicability. These challenges are tackled in this thesis with the introduction of new and efficient photoelectrochemical (PEC) and chemoenzymatic processes for reforming a diverse range of waste feedstocks to sustainable fuels. Solar-driven PEC reforming based on halide perovskite light-absorber is first developed as an attractive alternative to PC reforming. The PEC systems consist of a perovskite|Pt photocathode for clean H₂ production and a Cu-Pd alloy anode for reforming diverse waste streams, including pre-treated cellulosic biomass, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plastics, and industrial by-product glycerol into industrially-relevant, value-added chemicals (gluconic acid, glycolic acid and glyceric acid) without any externally applied bias or voltage. Additionally, the single light-absorber PEC systems can also convert the airborne waste stream and greenhouse gas CO₂ to diverse products with the simultaneous reforming of PET plastics with no applied voltage. The perovskite-based photocathode enables the integration of different CO₂ reduction catalysts such as a molecular cobalt porphyrin, a Cu-In alloy and formate dehydrogenase enzyme, which produce CO, syngas and formate, respectively. The versatile PEC systems, which can be assembled in either a ‘two-compartment’ or standalone ‘artificial leaf’ configurations achieve 60‒90% oxidation product selectivity (with no over-oxidation) and >100 µmol cm‾² h‾¹ product formation rates, corresponding to 10²‒10⁴ times higher activity than conventional PC reforming systems. In addition to developing PEC platforms, this thesis also explores avenues for circumventing the harsh alkaline pre-treatment strategies (pH >13, 60‒80 ºC) adopted for photoreforming waste substrates. For this purpose, a chemoenzymatic pathway is introduced whereby PET and polycaprolactone plastics were deconstructed using functional enzymes under benign conditions (pH 6‒8, 37‒65 ºC), followed by PC reforming using Pt loaded TiO₂ (TiO₂|Pt) or Ni₂P loaded carbon-nitride (CNx|Ni₂P) photocatalysts. The chemoenzymatic reforming process demonstrates versatility in upcycling polyester films and nanoplastics for H₂ production at high yields reaching ∼10³‒10⁴ µmol gsub‾¹ and activities at >500 µmol gcat‾¹ h‾¹. The utilisation of enzyme pre-treated plastics also allowed the coupling of plastic reforming with photocatalytic CO₂-to-syngas conversion using a phosphonated cobalt bis(terpyridine) co-catalyst immobilised on TiO₂ (TiO₂|CotpyP). Finally, moving beyond solar-driven systems, a bio-electrocatalytic flow process is demonstrated for the conversion of microbe pre-treated food waste to ethylene (an important feedstock in the chemical industry) on graphitic carbon electrodes via succinic acid as the central intermediate. In conclusion, with its focus on improving efficiencies, achieving selective product formation, building versatile platforms, diversifying substrate and product scope, and reducing carbon footprint and economic strain, this thesis aims to bring sustainable waste-to-fuel technologies a step closer to commercial implementation.

The aggravating global problems of energy crisis, rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accumulation of persistent waste have attracted the attention of scientists, policy-makers and global organisations to come up with effective and expeditious solutions to address these challenges. In this context, the development of sustainable technologies driven by renewable energy sources for the production of clean fuels and commodity chemicals from diverse waste feedstocks is an appealing approach towards creating a circular economy. Over the years, semiconductor photocatalysts based on TiO₂, CdS, carbon-nitrides (CNx) and carbon dots (CDs) have been widely used for the photocatalytic reforming (PC reforming) of pre-treated waste substrates to organic products, accompanied with clean hydrogen (H₂) generation. However, these conventional solar-driven processes suffer from major drawbacks such as low production rates, poor product selectivity, CO₂ release, challenging process and catalyst optimisation, and harsh waste pre-treatment conditions, which limit their commercial applicability. These challenges are tackled in this thesis with the introduction of new and efficient photoelectrochemical (PEC) and chemoenzymatic processes for reforming a diverse range of waste feedstocks to sustainable fuels. Solar-driven PEC reforming based on halide perovskite light-absorber is first developed as an attractive alternative to PC reforming. The PEC systems consist of a perovskite|Pt photocathode for clean H₂ production and a Cu-Pd alloy anode for reforming diverse waste streams, including pre-treated cellulosic biomass, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plastics, and industrial by-product glycerol into industrially-relevant, value-added chemicals (gluconic acid, glycolic acid and glyceric acid) without any externally applied bias or voltage. Additionally, the single light-absorber PEC systems can also convert the airborne waste stream and greenhouse gas CO₂ to diverse products with the simultaneous reforming of PET plastics with no applied voltage. The perovskite-based photocathode enables the integration of different CO₂ reduction catalysts such as a molecular cobalt porphyrin, a Cu-In alloy and formate dehydrogenase enzyme, which produce CO, syngas and formate, respectively. The versatile PEC systems, which can be assembled in either a ‘two-compartment’ or standalone ‘artificial leaf’ configurations achieve 60‒90% oxidation product selectivity (with no over-oxidation) and >100 µmol cm‾² h‾¹ product formation rates, corresponding to 10²‒10⁴ times higher activity than conventional PC reforming systems. In addition to developing PEC platforms, this thesis also explores avenues for circumventing the harsh alkaline pre-treatment strategies (pH >13, 60‒80 ºC) adopted for photoreforming waste substrates. For this purpose, a chemoenzymatic pathway is introduced whereby PET and polycaprolactone plastics were deconstructed using functional enzymes under benign conditions (pH 6‒8, 37‒65 ºC), followed by PC reforming using Pt loaded TiO₂ (TiO₂|Pt) or Ni₂P loaded carbon-nitride (CNx|Ni₂P) photocatalysts. The chemoenzymatic reforming process demonstrates versatility in upcycling polyester films and nanoplastics for H₂ production at high yields reaching ∼10³‒10⁴ µmol gsub‾¹ and activities at >500 µmol gcat‾¹ h‾¹. The utilisation of enzyme pre-treated plastics also allowed the coupling of plastic reforming with photocatalytic CO₂-to-syngas conversion using a phosphonated cobalt bis(terpyridine) co-catalyst immobilised on TiO₂ (TiO₂|CotpyP). Finally, moving beyond solar-driven systems, a bio-electrocatalytic flow process is demonstrated for the conversion of microbe pre-treated food waste to ethylene (an important feedstock in the chemical industry) on graphitic carbon electrodes via succinic acid as the central intermediate. In conclusion, with its focus on improving efficiencies, achieving selective product formation, building versatile platforms, diversifying substrate and product scope, and reducing carbon footprint and economic strain, this thesis aims to bring sustainable waste-to-fuel technologies a step closer to commercial implementation.

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase. To improve resilience to droughts, proactive drought management is essential. Economic assessments are typically included to decide on the drought risk-reducing investments to make. The choice of both methods and scope of economic assessments influences the outcome, and thus the investment choice. This paper aims to identify how comprehensively economic assessments are applied in practice. Through a systematic literature review, 14 actual economic assessments are identified and their methods are evaluated based on seven criteria for economic assessments as derived from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The results show that in practice, economic assessments rarely address all criteria. Applying a limited number of criteria reduces the scope and narrows the approach, possibly leading to the underestimation of drought risk reduction approaches' related benefits. Applying the seven criteria in practice will improve the results of economic assessments of drought risk reduction measures, allowing for optimal investment selection. Based on the different criteria, a Framework for Economic Assessments of Drought Risk-Reducing Applications (FEADRRA) is proposed. Applying the criteria of the framework can support decision-makers in drought risk management and in carrying out the most fitting drought interventions.

Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase. To improve resilience to droughts, proactive drought management is essential. Economic assessments are typically included to decide on the drought risk-reducing investments to make. The choice of both methods and scope of economic assessments influences the outcome, and thus the investment choice. This paper aims to identify how comprehensively economic assessments are applied in practice. Through a systematic literature review, 14 actual economic assessments are identified and their methods are evaluated based on seven criteria for economic assessments as derived from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The results show that in practice, economic assessments rarely address all criteria. Applying a limited number of criteria reduces the scope and narrows the approach, possibly leading to the underestimation of drought risk reduction approaches' related benefits. Applying the seven criteria in practice will improve the results of economic assessments of drought risk reduction measures, allowing for optimal investment selection. Based on the different criteria, a Framework for Economic Assessments of Drought Risk-Reducing Applications (FEADRRA) is proposed. Applying the criteria of the framework can support decision-makers in drought risk management and in carrying out the most fitting drought interventions.