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  • Energy Research
  • 15. Life on land
  • BE
  • University of Liège

  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Jucker, Tommaso;
    Jucker, Tommaso
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Jucker, Tommaso in OpenAIRE
    Fischer, Fabian Jörg; orcid bw Chave, Jérôme;
    Chave, Jérôme
    ORCID
    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Chave, Jérôme in OpenAIRE
    orcid bw Coomes, David;
    Coomes, David
    ORCID
    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Coomes, David in OpenAIRE
    +115 Authors

    AbstractData capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research—from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non‐forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC‐BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599. To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology—from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

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    CORE
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: CORE
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Apollo
    Article . 2022
    License: rioxx All Rights Reserved
    Data sources: Datacite
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Apollo
    Article . 2022
    Data sources: Datacite
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ COREarrow_drop_down
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      CORE
      Article . 2022
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: CORE
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Global Change Biology
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Apollo
      Article . 2022
      License: rioxx All Rights Reserved
      Data sources: Datacite
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
      Article . 2022
      License: CC BY
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Apollo
      Article . 2022
      Data sources: Datacite
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  • Authors: orcid bw Fettweis, Xavier;
    Fettweis, Xavier
    ORCID
    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Fettweis, Xavier in OpenAIRE

    Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) is a regional climate model that is fully coupled to a one-dimensional surface-atmosphere energy and mass transfer scheme, SISVAT (Soil Ice Snow Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) (Fettweis et al., 2005, 2020; Lefebre et al., 2005). SISVAT employs a multilayered snowpack model, CROCUS, that simulates meltwater production, percolation, and refreeze (Brun et al., 1989), while also accounting for changes in albedo due to snow metamorphism (Brun et al., 1992). MAR has been extensively verified over the Greenland Ice Sheet and is therefore particularly well suited for analyses of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (Fettweis et al., 2011; Fettweis et al., 2020; Lefebre et al. 2005; Mattingly et al. 2020). Brun, E., Martin, E., Simon, V., Gendre, C., and Coléou, C. (1989). An energy and mass model of snow cover suitable for operational avalanche forecasting. Journal of Glaciology, 35, 333. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022143000009254 Brun, E., David, P., Sudul, M., and Brunot, G. (1992). A numerical model to simulate snow-cover stratigraphy for operational avalanche forecasting. Journal of Glaciology, 38(128), 13–22. https://doi.org/10.3189/S0022143000009552 Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., Lefebre, F., and van Ypersele, J.-P. (2005). Greenland surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model and comparison with satellite-derived data in 1990–1991. Climate Dynamics, 24(6), 623–640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0010-y Fettweis, X., Tedesco, M., van den Broeke, M., and Ettema, J. (2011). Melting trends over the Greenland ice sheet (1958–2009) from spaceborne microwave data and regional climate models. The Cryosphere, 5(2), 359–375. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-359-2011 Fettweis, X., Hofer, S., Krebs-Kanzow, U., Amory, C., Aoki, T., Berends, C. J., et al. (2020). GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Cryosphere, 14(11), 3935–3958. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020 Lefebre, F., Fettweis, X., Gallée, H., Van Ypersele, J.-P., Marbaix, P., Greuell, W., and Calanca, P. (2005). Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland. Climate Dynamics, 25(1), 99–116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0005-8 Mattingly, K. S., Mote, T. L., Fettweis, X., van As, D., Van Tricht, K., Lhermitte, S., et al. (2020). Strong summer atmospheric rivers trigger Greenland ice sheet melt through spatially varying surface energy balance and cloud regimes. Journal of Climate, 33(16), 6809–6832. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0835.1

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Jeroen Steenbeek;
    Jeroen Steenbeek
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Jeroen Steenbeek in OpenAIRE
    orcid Erwin Schmid;
    Erwin Schmid
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Erwin Schmid in OpenAIRE
    Tyler D. Eddy; Tyler D. Eddy; +55 Authors

    AbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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    Nature Communications
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Nature Communications
    Article
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: UnpayWall
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    Apollo
    Article . 2019
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
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    Research Collection
    Article . 2019
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    Article . 2019
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    Article . 2019
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    Article . 2019
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    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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    Research Collection
    Article . 2019
    License: CC BY
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
    Article . 2019
    License: CC BY
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/8d...
    Other literature type . 2019
    Data sources: Datacite
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/8m...
    Other literature type . 2019
    Data sources: Datacite
    Digital.CSIC
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Digital.CSIC
    Apollo
    Article . 2019
    License: CC BY
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      Nature Communications
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Nature Communications
      Article
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: UnpayWall
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      Apollo
      Article . 2019
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Datacite
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      Research Collection
      Article . 2019
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      Data sources: Datacite
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      Nature Communications
      Article . 2019
      Data sources: DOAJ
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2019
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      Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2019
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      Research Collection
      Article . 2019
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
      Article . 2019
      License: CC BY
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/8d...
      Other literature type . 2019
      Data sources: Datacite
      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/8m...
      Other literature type . 2019
      Data sources: Datacite
      Digital.CSIC
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
      Data sources: Digital.CSIC
      Apollo
      Article . 2019
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Apollo
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    Authors: orcid Shady Attia;
    Shady Attia
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Shady Attia in OpenAIRE
    Théo Lacombe; orcid bw Hery Tiana Rakotondramiarana;
    Hery Tiana Rakotondramiarana
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    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Hery Tiana Rakotondramiarana in OpenAIRE
    orcid François Garde;
    François Garde
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    François Garde in OpenAIRE
    +1 Authors

    Abstract Housing projects design in cities should be based on an understanding of the urban local climate; selection of fit-to-purpose thermal comfort models and implementation corresponding design guidelines and best practices. In this context, we developed an analysis tool for bioclimatic design recommendations for architects in Madagascar. The aim of this tool is to support the decision-making process of architects and urban planners by proposing environmental design guidelines for Antananarivo and Toamasina, the two largest cities on the island. Firstly, we performed a climate zoning of the island based on altitude, solar irradiation and dry bulb temperature. Secondly, we developed a bioclimatic analysis based on temperature and humidity levels. The results show that ASHRAE adaptive comfort model is the best model for both cities because it can tolerate higher humidity limits of up to 80% or more. The natural comfort potential varies from 22 in Antananarivo to 45% in Toamasina. Results can be used to create informative bioclimatic analysis visualisations to better assess climate and determine thermal comfort models for other cities in hot-humid climates. The capabilities of the tool allow architects and urban planners to better understand the climate and propose practical design guidance.

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    Sustainable Cities and Society
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      Sustainable Cities and Society
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Jean-Marie Bouquegneau; Sylvie Gobert; Noémie Laumont;

    In spite of very low nutrient concentrations in its vicinity - both column and pore waters-, the Posidonia oceanica of the Revellata Bay displays high biomass and productivity. We measured the nutrient fluxes from the sediment into the water enclosed among the leaf shoots ("canopy water") to determine if it is possible source of nutrients for P. oceanica leaves.During the summer, the canopy water appears to act as a nutrient reservoir for the plant. During that period, the canopy water layer displays both a temperature 0.5 degrees C cooler than the upper water column, and a much higher nutrient content, as shown in this work using a very simple original technique permitting to sample water with a minimal disturbance of the water column's vertical structure. Despite low nutrient concentrations in pore water, mean net fluxes were measured from the sediment to the canopy water. These fluxes are sufficient to provide 20% of the mean daily nitrogen and phosphorus requirement of the P. oceanica shoots.An internal cycling of nutrients from P. oceanica senescent leaves was previously noted as an efficient strategy to help face low nutrient availability. The present study points out a second strategy which consists in holding back, in the canopy, the nutrients released at the water-sediment interface. This process occurs when long leaves, during poor nutrient periods in the water column, providing, to P. oceanica, the possibility to develop, high biomass, high chlorophyll quantities in low nutrient environment (a Low Nutrients High Chlorophyll system).

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    BMC Ecology
    Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Crossref
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    BMC Ecology
    Article
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    BMC Ecology
    Article . 2004
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    BMC Ecology
    Article . 2002
    Data sources: DOAJ
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      BMC Ecology
      Article . 2002 . Peer-reviewed
      Data sources: Crossref
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      BMC Ecology
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      BMC Ecology
      Article . 2004
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      BMC Ecology
      Article . 2002
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    Authors: orcid Wyard, Coraline;
    Wyard, Coraline
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Wyard, Coraline in OpenAIRE

    In Belgium, the future response of the climate to increasing greenhouse gas concentration is not clear, especially with regard to the perturbations of the precipitation regime, snow cover, and global radiation. On the one hand, existing studies show results which differ strongly either according to the future scenario, or from one model to another. On the other hand, there is even an absence of studies focussing on Belgium regarding future changes in snow cover and global radiation. Given their potential impacts on the society (water management, energy supply, biodiversity, tourism), future changes in precipitation, snow cover, and global radiation require further research. As the orography, the exposition to the dominant winds, and the proximity of the North Sea determine a large spatial variability in the Belgian climate, the latter requires a fine representation of these features to be properly simulated. Compared to global climate models (GCM), regional climate models (RCM) are recognized for their ability to represent climatic phenomena with higher spatial resolutions. In the framework of this doctoral thesis, the RCM MAR (for "Modèle Atmosphérique Régional" in French), which is developed at the Laboratory of Climatology and Topoclimatology of the University of Liège, was applied for the first time to Belgium. The aim was first to assess the performances of MAR over Belgium and then to study the current and future evolution of hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, and also the current and future evolution of global radiation. For this purpose, historical simulations were performed over 1959-2014. Future projections (2006-2100) were then performed under the most pessimist IPCC future scenario (RCP8.5). The horizontal resolution used for both historical and future simulations is 5 km. By comparing the MAR outputs to ground-based measurements from 20 weather stations over 2008-2014, the results show that MAR successfully simulates the spatial and temporal variability of the Belgian climate. In fact, the biases found in the MAR results are non-significant and the correlation coefficients are satisfying with regard to temperature, precipitation, snow height, global radiation and cloudiness. The MAR results are particularly satisfying during the winter months and in High Belgium where the climate is the coldest. Regarding hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, we focused on the Ourthe catchment. In this river, about 70 % of floods occur during the winter months and result from either the rapid melting of the snow pack covering the Ardennes eventually combined with rainfall or abundant rainfall alone. The current evolution of hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods was first assessed for the period 1959-2010. Conditions favouring floods in the Ourthe River present a negative trend over 1959–2010 as a result of a decrease in snow accumulation and a shortening of the snow season. Regarding the impact of the evolution of extreme precipitation events on hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, the signal is less clear because the trends depend on the data used to force the MAR model. By the end of the 21st century, under the most pessimist scenario, the results show an acceleration of the snow cover depletion resulting in a decrease in conditions favouring floods. Further, the impact of the evolution of extreme precipitation events on hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods, no significant change was found although these trends are subject to uncertainties due to the deficiencies of the convective scheme of MAR. Regarding global radiation, its current evolution was first assessed for the period 1959-2010. In addition, we consider two distinct periods in our analysis: 1959-1979 (dimming) and 1980-2010 (brightening). For both the dimming and the brightening periods, our results show that the annual global radiation trends are mainly driven by global radiation changes in spring and summer. The increase in global radiation observed in Belgium since the 1980s and especially since the 2000s could mainly be explained by a decrease in low and medium cloud cover. This would strengthen the effect of the decrease in aerosol load on global radiation that has been observed in Europe since the 1980s. The origin of these changes in cloudiness is not clear and could result from changes in both aerosol-cloud interactions and atmospheric-circulation, such as more frequent tropical air advections and more frequent anticyclonic conditions over Western Europe due to the poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks. These changes in the atmospheric circulation may result from global warming and may persist in the future. In fact, by the end of the 21st century, under the most pessimist scenario, the models simulate an increase in the blocking regime frequency in summer over Europe. For Belgium, this implies more frequent anticyclonic conditions favouring cloudless conditions. The future projections performed with MAR exhibit significant decreasing total cloud cover, and particularly decreasing low and medium cloud cover. However, this declining cloud cover leads to contrasting changes in global radiation depending on the data used to force MAR. This thesis was funded by the Fonds pour la formation à la Recherche dans l'Industrie et dans l'Agriculture (Communauté française de Belgique) - FRIA (BE)

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    Thesis . 2018
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    Authors: Véronique Gosselain; orcid Jean-Pierre Descy;
    Jean-Pierre Descy
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Jean-Pierre Descy in OpenAIRE
    Etienne Everbecq; Laurent Viroux;

    POTAMON is a unidimensional, non-stationary model, designed for simulating potamoplankton from source to mouth. The forcing variables are discharge, river morphology, water temperature, available light and nutrient inputs. Given the description of several algal categories, POTAMON allows to simulate algal "successions" at a particular site, as well as longitudinal changes of potamoplankton composition and biomass. The algal categories differ by their physiology, their loss rates, and their sensitivity to grazing by zooplankton. Two zooplankton categories were considered, Brachionus-like and Keratella-like, which differ by their clearance rate, their incipient limiting level, their selectivity towards phytoplankton, and their growth yield. The model simulates satisfactorily the onset and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Belgian part of R. Meuse, the biomass decrease in early summer, and the autumn bloom. It also renders the major variations of algal assemblages along the river. The model allows to confirm that the main driving variables of potamoplankton dynamics in a eutrophic river are physical factors: discharge and related variables (e.g. retention time), light and temperature. In addition, the simulations confirm that the zooplankton-phytoplankton interaction may result in phytoplankton biomass fluctuations and compositional changes. POTAMON can be useful to explore plankton dynamics in a large river, and it may become a tool to test various management measures.

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    Water Research
    Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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    Water Research
    Article . 2001
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      Water Research
      Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
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      Water Research
      Article . 2001
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    Authors: orcid Aurélie Shapiro;
    Aurélie Shapiro
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Aurélie Shapiro in OpenAIRE
    Jean-François Bastin; Jean-François Bastin; Jean-François Bastin; +5 Authors

    In the context of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation (the REDD+ program), optical very high resolution (VHR) satellite images provide an opportunity to characterize forest canopy structure and to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) at less expense than methods based on airborne remote sensing data. Among the methods for processing these VHR images, Fourier textural ordination (FOTO) presents a good method to detect forest canopy structural heterogeneity and therefore to predict AGB variations. Notably, the method does not saturate at intermediate AGB values as do pixelwise processing of available space borne optical and radar signals. However, a regional‐scale application requires overcoming two difficulties: (1) instrumental effects due to variations in sun–scene–sensor geometry or sensor‐specific responses that preclude the use of wide arrays of images acquired under heterogeneous conditions and (2) forest structural diversity including monodominant or open canopy forests, which are of particular importance in Central Africa. In this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of a rigorous regional study of canopy texture by harmonizing FOTO indices of images acquired from two different sensors (Geoeye‐1 and QuickBird‐2) and different sun–scene–sensor geometries and by calibrating a piecewise biomass inversion model using 26 inventory plots (1 ha) sampled across very heterogeneous forest types. A good agreement was found between observed and predicted AGB (residual standard error [RSE] = 15%; R2 = 0.85; P < 0.001) across a wide range of AGB levels from 26 Mg/ha to 460 Mg/ha, and was confirmed by cross validation. A high‐resolution biomass map (100‐m pixels) was produced for a 400‐km2 area, and predictions obtained from both imagery sources were consistent with each other (r = 0.86; slope = 1.03; intercept = 12.01 Mg/ha). These results highlight the horizontal structure of forest canopy as a powerful descriptor of the entire forest stand structure and heterogeneity. In particular, we show that quantitative metrics resulting from such textural analysis offer new opportunities to characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the structure of dense forests and may complement the toolbox used by tropical forest ecologists, managers or REDD+ national monitoring, reporting and verification bodies.

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    Ecological Applications
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      Ecological Applications
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: orcid Adil Dilawar;
    Adil Dilawar
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Adil Dilawar in OpenAIRE
    orcid Baozhang Chen;
    Baozhang Chen
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Baozhang Chen in OpenAIRE
    orcid Arfan Arshad;
    Arfan Arshad
    ORCID
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    Arfan Arshad in OpenAIRE
    Lifeng Guo; +8 Authors

    Here, we provided a comprehensive analysis of long-term drought and climate extreme patterns in the agro ecological zones (AEZs) of Pakistan during 1980–2019. Drought trends were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at various timescales (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, SPEI-6, and SPEI-12). The results showed that droughts (seasonal and annual) were more persistent and severe in the southern, southwestern, southeastern, and central parts of the region. Drought exacerbated with slopes of −0.02, −0.07, −0.08, −0.01, and −0.02 per year. Drought prevailed in all AEZs in the spring season. The majority of AEZs in Pakistan’s southern, middle, and southwestern regions had experienced substantial warming. The mean annual temperature minimum (Tmin) increased faster than the mean annual temperature maximum (Tmax) in all zones. Precipitation decreased in the southern, northern, central, and southwestern parts of the region. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a robust increase in temperature extremes with a variance of 76% and a decrease in precipitation extremes with a variance of 91% in the region. Temperature and precipitation extremes indices had a strong Pearson correlation with drought events. Higher temperatures resulted in extreme drought (dry conditions), while higher precipitation levels resulted in wetting conditions (no drought) in different AEZs. In most AEZs, drought occurrences were more responsive to precipitation. The current findings are helpful for climate mitigation strategies and specific zonal efforts are needed to alleviate the environmental and societal impacts of drought.

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    Sustainability
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Sustainability
    Article . 2021
    Data sources: DOAJ
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      Sustainability
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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      Sustainability
      Article . 2021
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    Authors: orcid Ruiz-Ramos, M.;
    Ruiz-Ramos, M.
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Ruiz-Ramos, M. in OpenAIRE
    orcid Ferrise, R.;
    Ferrise, R.
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Ferrise, R. in OpenAIRE
    orcid Rodriguez, A.;
    Rodriguez, A.
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Rodriguez, A. in OpenAIRE
    orcid Lorite, I. J.;
    Lorite, I. J.
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Lorite, I. J. in OpenAIRE
    +34 Authors

    Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.

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    Agricultural Systems
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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    Agricultural Systems
    Article . 2018
    Data sources: VIRTA
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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      Agricultural Systems
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Elsevier TDM
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Agricultural Systems
      Article . 2018
      Data sources: VIRTA
      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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