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Many species are too slow to track their poleward moving climate niche under global warming. Pesticide exposure may contribute to this by reducing population growth and impairing flight ability. Moreover, edge populations at the moving range front may be more vulnerable to pesticides because of the rapid evolution of traits to enhance their rate of spread that shunt energy away from detoxification and repair. We exposed replicated edge and core populations of the poleward moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum to the pesticide esfenvalerate at low and high densities. Exposure to esfenvalerate had strong negative effects on survival, growth rate and development time in the larval stage and negatively affected flight-related adult traits (mass at emergence, flight muscle mass and fat content) across metamorphosis. Pesticide effects did not differ between edge and core populations, except that at the high concentration the pesticide-induced mortality was 17% stronger in edge populations. Pesticide exposure may therefore slow down the range expansion by lowering population growth rates, especially because edge populations suffered a higher mortality, and by negatively affecting dispersal ability by impairing flight-related traits. These results emphasize the need for direct conservation efforts toward leading-edge populations for facilitating future range shifts under global warming. MAIN DATAEVA-2015-167-OA DATA.xlsSUPPLEMENTARY DATA FOR APPENDICES (BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC PARAMETERS)EVA-2015-167-OA DATA FOR APPENDICES (BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC PARAMETERS).xls

Global mitigation pathways play a critical role in informing climate policies and targets that are in line with international climate goals. However, it is not possible to directly compare modelled results with national inventories used to assess progress under the UNFCCC due to differences in how land-based fluxes are accounted for.National inventories consider carbon flux on managed land using an area-based approach with managed land-areas determined by nations. Emissions scenarios consider a different managed land area and are calibrated against data from detailed global carbon cycle models that account for natural (indirect) and anthropogenic (direct) fluxes separately by design. To disentangle the direct and indirect components of land-based carbon fluxes, we use a reduced complexity climate model with explicit treatment of the land-use sector, OSCAR, one of the models used by the Global Carbon Project. We find the discrepancy between model and NGHGI-based accounting methods globally to be 4.4 ± 1.0 Gt CO2 yr-1 averaged over the 2000-2020 time period, which is in line with existing estimates. We then apply OSCAR to the set of pathways assessed by the IPCC to quantify how this gap evolves over time and estimate how key mitigation benchmarks change.Across both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios, LULUCF emissions pathways aligned with NGHGI accounting practices show a strong increase in the total land sink until around mid-century. However, the ‘NGHGI alignment gap’  decreases over this period, converging in the 2050-2060s for 1.5°C scenarios and 2070s-2080s for 2°C scenarios. The convergence is primarily a result of the simulated stabilization and then decrease of the CO2-fertilization effect as well as background climate warming reducing the overall effectiveness of the land sink, which in turn reduces the indirect removals considered by NGHGIs. These dynamics lead to land-based emissions reversing their downward trend in most NGHGI-aligned scenarios by mid-century, and result in the LULUCF sector becoming a net-source of emissions by 2100 in about 25% of both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios.Assessing emission pathways using LULUCF definitions from national inventory accounting results in downward revisions to emissions benchmarks derived from scenarios. NGHGI-aligned pathways result in earlier net-zero CO2 emissions by around 2-5 years for both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios, and 2030 emission reductions relative to 2020 are enhanced by about 5 percentage points for both pathway categories. When incorporating the additional land removals considered by NGHGIs, the assessed cumulative net CO2 emissions to global net-zero CO2 also decreases systematically by 15-18% for both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios.We find that increasing removals from direct fluxes in 1.5C scenarios overtake estimated removals using NGHGI conventions in the near term. However, by midcentury, the strengthening of direct removals is balanced by weakening of indirect removals, meaning that, on average, carbon removal on land accounted for using NGHGI conventions in 1.5C scenarios results in about half of the LULUCF removals in current policy scenarios. We discuss the implications of our results for future Global Stocktakes and market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement.

Highlights •Biomass resource constraints impact the effectiveness of bioeconomy policies. •Bioeconomy policies may have an important impact on the sector structure in the long run, but the sector growth remains ultimately constrained by the availability of inputs. •Solutions to reduce the biomass constraint have to be included in innovation policy for the biobased economy.

Biomass is expected to play an increasingly significant role in the ‘greening’ of energy supply. Nevertheless, concerns are rising about the sustainability of large-scale energy crop production. Impacts must be assessed carefully before deciding whether and how this industry should be developed, and what technologies, policies and investment strategies should be pursued. There is need for a comprehensive and reliable sustainability assessment tool to evaluate the environmental, social and economic performance of biomass energy production. This paper paves the way for such a tool by analysing and comparing the performance and applicability of a selection of existing tools that are potentially useful for sustainability assessment of bioenergy systems. The selected tools are: Criteria And Indicators (C&I), Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), Exergy Analysis (EA) and System Perturbation Analysis (SPA). To evaluate the tools, a framework was constructed that consists of four evaluation levels: sustainability issues, tool attributes, model structure, area of application. The tools were then evaluated using literature data and with the help of a Delphi panel of experts. Finally, a statistical analysis was performed on the resulting data matrix to detect significant differences between tools. It becomes clear that none of the selected tools is able to perform a comprehensive sustainability assessment of bioenergy systems. Every tool has its particular advantages and disadvantages, which means that trade-offs are inevitable and a balance must be found between scientific accuracy and pragmatic decision making. A good definition of the assessment objective is therefore crucial. It seems an interesting option to create a toolbox that combines procedural parts of C&I and EIA, supplemented with calculation algorithms of LCA and CBA for respectively environmental and economic sustainability indicators. Nevertheless, this would require a more comprehensive interdisciplinary approach to align the different tool characteristics and focuses.

AbstractVegetation productivity first increases and then decreases with temperature; and temperature corresponding to the maximum productivity is called optimal temperature (Topt). In this study, we used satellite derived near‐infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) data to map Topt of vegetation productivity at the spatial resolution of 0.1° on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive regions in the climate system. The average Topt of non‐forest vegetation on the TP is about 14.7°C, significantly lower than the Topt value used in current ecosystem models. A remarkable geographical heterogeneity in Topt is observed over the TP. Higher Topt values generally appear in the north‐eastern TP, while the south‐western TP has relatively lower Topt (<10°C), in line with the difference of climate conditions and topography across different regions. Spatially, Topt tends to decrease by 0.41°C per 100 m increase in elevation, faster than the elevational elapse rate of growing season temperature, implying a potential CO2 regulation of Topt in addition to temperature acclimation. Topt increases by 0.66°C for each 1°C of rising mean annual temperature as a result of vegetation acclimation to climate change. However, at least at the decadal scale, there is no significant change in Topt between 2000s and 2010s, suggesting that the Topt climate acclimation may not keep up with the warming rate. Finally, future (2091–2100) warming could be close to and even surpass Topt on the TP under different RCP scenarios without considering potential climate acclimation. Our analyses imply that the temperature tipping point when the impact of future warming shifts from positive to negative on the TP is greatly overestimated by current vegetation models. Future research needs to include varying thermal and CO2 acclimation effects on Topt across different time scales in vegetation models.

Abstract The use of bio-energy crops for electricity production is considered an effective means to mitigate the greenhouse effect, mainly due to its ability to substitute fossil fuels. A whole range of crops qualify for bio-energy production and a rational choice is not readily made. This paper evaluates the energy and greenhouse gas balance of a mixed indigenous hardwood coppice as an extensive, low-input bio-energy crop. The impact on fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emission is calculated and discussed by comparing its life cycle (cultivation, processing and conversion into energy) with two conventional bio-energy crops (short rotation systems of willow and Miscanthus). For each life cycle process, the flows of fossil energy and greenhouse gas that are created for the production of one functional unit are calculated. The results show that low-input bio-energy crops use comparatively less fossil fuel and avoid more greenhouse gas emission per unit of produced energy than conventional bio-energy crops during the first 100 yr . Where the mixed coppice system avoids up till 0.13 t CO 2 eq./GJ, Miscanthus does not exceed 0.07 t CO 2 eq./GJ. After 100 yr their performances become comparable, amounting to 0.05 t CO 2 eq./ha/GJ. However, if the land surface itself is chosen as a functional unit, conventional crops perform better with respect to mitigating the greenhouse effect. Miscanthus avoids a maximum of 12.9 t CO 2 eq./ha/yr, while mixed coppice attains 9.5 t CO 2 eq./ha/yr at the most.

AbstractIn this commentary we critically discuss the suitability of payments for ecosystem services and the most important challenges they face. While such instruments can play a role in improving environmental governance, we argue that over‐reliance on payments as win‐win solutions might lead to ineffective outcomes, similar to earlier experience with integrated conservation and development projects. Our objective is to raise awareness, particularly among policy makers and practitioners, about the limitations of such instruments and to encourage a dialogue about the policy contexts in which they might be appropriate.