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River deltas and estuaries are disproportionally-significant coastal landforms that are inhabited by nearly 600 M people globally. In recent history, rapid socio-economic development has dramatically changed many of the World's mega deltas, which have typically undergone agricultural intensification and expansion, land-use change, urbanization, water resources engineering and exploitation of natural resources. As a result, mega deltas have evolved into complex and potentially vulnerable socio-ecological systems with unique threats and coping capabilities. The goal of this research was to establish a holistic understanding of threats, resilience, and adaptation for four mega deltas of variable geography and levels of socio-economic development, namely the Mekong, Yellow River, Yangtze, and Rhine deltas. Compiling this kind of information is critical for managing and developing these complex coastal areas sustainably but is typically hindered by a lack of consistent quantitative data across the ecological, social and economic sectors. To overcome this limitation, we adopted a qualitative approach, where delta characteristics across all sectors were assessed through systematic expert surveys. This approach enabled us to generate a comparative assessment of threats, resilience, and resilience-strengthening adaptation across the four deltas. Our assessment provides novel insights into the various components that dominate the overall risk situation in each delta and, for the first time, illustrates how each of these components differ across the four mega deltas. As such, our findings can guide a more detailed, sector specific, risk assessment or assist in better targeting the implementation of risk mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Oligotrophic catchments with short spatey streams, upland lakes and peaty soils characterise northwest European Atlantic coastal regions. These catchments are important biodiversity refuges, particularly for sensitive diadromous fish populations but are subject to changes in land use and land management practices associated with afforestation, agriculture and rural development. Quantification of the degree of catchment degradation resulting from such anthropogenic impacts is often limited by a lack of long-term baseline data in what are generally relatively isolated, poorly studied catchments. This research uses a combination of palaeolimnological (radiometrically-dated variations in sedimentary geochemical elements, pollen, diatoms and remains of cladocera), census, and instrumental data, along with hindcast estimates to quantify environmental changes and their aquatic impacts since the late 19th century. The most likely drivers of any change are also identified. Results confirm an aquatic biotic response (phyto- and zooplankton) to soil erosion and nutrient enrichment associated with the onset of commercial conifer afforestation, effects that were subsequently enhanced as a result of increased overgrazing in the catchment and, possibly, climate warming. The implications for the health of aquatic resources in the catchment are discussed Environmental Protection Agency in Ireland (ILLUMINATE 2005-W-MS-40, P.McGinnity was supported by the Beaufort Marine Research Award in Fish Population Genetics funded by the Irish Government under the Sea Change Programme.

Abstract. The assessment of wind conditions in complex terrain requires the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations incorporating an accurate parameterization of forest canopy effects and variable thermal stability effects. This study aims to investigate how incorporating the presence of trees can improve flow predictions. A three-dimensional steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations model is set up using OpenFOAM to simulate the flow over a complex terrain site comprising two parallel ridges located near Perdigão, Portugal. A 7.5 km × 7.5 km terrain of the Perdigao site is constructed from elevation data centered around a 100 m met-mast located on the northeast ridge. A 30-min averaged stationary period corresponding to near-neutral conditions on a single met-mast tower is simulated. The impact of incorporating different source terms is studied such as forest canopy, Coriolis forces as well as also buoyancy forces. The prediction capability of the models is analyzed for different groups of towers on the South-West ridge, inside the valley, and on the North-East ridge based on the flow topology. The inclusion of a canopy model is shown to improve predictions close to the ground for most of the towers, while reducing prediction accuracy on top of the ridges, illustrating the need to represent terrain heterogeneity.

Meteorological forcing at the air-water interface is the main determinant of the heat balance of most lakes (Edinger et al., 1968; Sweers, 1976). Year-to-year changes in the weather therefore have a major effect on the thermal characteristics of lakes. However, lakes that differ with respect to their morphometry respond differently to these changes (Gorham, 1964), with deeper lakes integrating the effects of meteorological forcing over longer periods of time. Other important factors that can influence the thermal characteristics of lakes include hydraulic residence time, optical properties and landscape setting (e.g. Salonen et al., 1984; Fee et al., 1996; Livingstone et al., 1999). These factors modify the thermal responses of the lake to meteorological forcing (cf. Magnuson et al., 2004; Blenckner, 2005) and regulate the patterns of spatial coherence (Chapter 17) observed in the different regions (Livingstone, 1993; George et al., 2000; Livingstone and Dokulil, 2001; Jarvinen et al., 2002; Blenckner et al., 2004)

Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in eastern Congo dating to 1971. A study was conducted to find out the linkage between climate variability/change and cholera outbreak and to assess the related economic cost in the management of cholera in Congo.This study integrates historical data (20 years) on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in South-Kivu province, eastern Congo.Analyses of precipitation and temperatures characteristics in South-Kivu provinces showed that cholera epidemics are closely associated with climatic factors variability. Peaks in Cholera new cases were in synchrony with peaks in rainfalls. Cholera infection cases declined significantly (P<0.05) with the rise in the average temperature. The monthly number of new Cholera cases oscillated between 5 and 450. For every rise of the average temperature by 0.35 °C to 0.75 °C degree Celsius, and for every change in the rainfall variability by 10-19%, it is likely cholera infection risks will increase by 17 to 25%. The medical cost of treatment of Cholera case infection was found to be of US$50 to 250 per capita. The total costs of Cholera attributable to climate change were found to fall in the range of 4 to 8% of the per capita in annual income in Bukavu town.It is likely that high rainfall favor multiplication of the bacteria and contamination of water sources by the bacteria (Vibrio cholerae). The consumption of polluted water, promiscuity, population density and lack of hygiene are determinants favoring spread and infection of the bacteria among human beings living in over-crowded environments.

In this study, an agroforestry ecosystem project (AEP) is developed for confronting the conflict between agricultural development and forest protection. A fuzzy stochastic programming with Laplace scenario analysis (FSL) is proposed for planning water resources in an AEP issue under uncertainties. FSL can not only deal with spatial and temporal variations of hydrologic elements and meteorological conditions; but also handle uncertainties that are expressed in terms of probability, possibility distributions and fuzzy sets; meanwhile, policy scenario analysis with Laplace’s criterion (PSL) is introduced to handle probability of each scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed FSL can be applied to an AEP issue in Xixian county, located in north of China. The result of ecological effects, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes and system benefits under various scenarios are obtained, which can support policymakers adjusting current strategy to improve regional ecological function with cost-effective and sustainable manners. Meanwhile, it can support generating a robust water plan for regional sustainability in an AEP issue under uncertainties.

Abstract Chemical contamination has impaired ecosystems, reducing biodiversity and the provisioning of functions and services. This has spurred a movement to restore contaminated ecosystems and develop and implement national and international regulations that require it. Nevertheless, ecological restoration remains a young and rapidly growing discipline and its intersection with toxicology is even more nascent and underdeveloped. Consequently, we provide guidance to scientists and practitioners on when, where, and how to restore contaminated ecosystems. Although restoration has many benefits, it also can be expensive, and in many cases systems can recover without human intervention. Hence, the first question we address is: “When should we restore contaminated ecosystems?” Second, we provide suggestions on what to restore—biodiversity, functions, services, all 3, or something else—and where to restore given expected changes to habitats driven by global climate change. Finally, we provide guidance on how to restore contaminated ecosystems. To do this, we analyze critical aspects of the literature dealing with the ecology of restoring contaminated ecosystems. Additionally, we review approaches for translating the science of restoration to on-the-ground actions, which includes discussions of market incentives and the finances of restoration, stakeholder outreach and governance models for ecosystem restoration, and working with contractors to implement restoration plans. By explicitly considering the mechanisms and strategies that maximize the success of the restoration of contaminated sites, we hope that our synthesis serves to increase and improve collaborations between restoration ecologists and ecotoxicologists and set a roadmap for the restoration of contaminated ecosystems. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:273–283. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC Key Points We merge insights from ecological and economic theory and on-the-ground restoration activities to provide guidance on what endpoints should be targeted for restoration in contaminated ecosystems and when, where, and how to restore ecosystems degraded by contaminants. We encourage practitioners to consider restoration as early as possible (i.e., before injury or before remediation) and to restore both structural and functional endpoints. We also promote consideration of broader landscape and seascape contexts and new ideas and approaches that can overcome the scientific and financial limitations of restoration. We urge more reciprocal transfer of knowledge among theorist and practitioners and academics, industry, government, tribal organizations, NGOs and the public to improve the science of restoration.

Natural ecosystems are threatened by climate change, fragmentation, and non-native species. Dispersal-limitation potentially compounds impacts of these factors on plant diversity, especially in isolated vegetation patches. Changes in climate can impact the phenology of native species in distinct ways from non-natives, potentially resulting in cascading impacts on native communities. Few empirical studies have examined the combined effects of climate change and dispersal limitation on community diversity or phenology. Using a five-year dispersal-restriction experiment in an invaded semi-arid annual plant system in Western Australia, we investigated the interactive effects of dispersal-restriction and inter-annual rainfall variation on community composition, species dominance and seed production timing. We found inter-annual rainfall variation to be the principal driver of community dynamics. Drought years had long-term, stable effects on community composition, with evidence of shifts from native toward non-native dominance. Surprisingly, community composition remained largely unchanged under dispersal restriction. A subtle dispersal rescue effect was evident for a dominant native annual forb and a dominant annual non-native grass but only in average rainfall years. The timing of seed production was primarily driven by annual rainfall with native and non-native grasses having opposite responses. There was no evidence that inter-annual variation in seeding timing affected community diversity over time. Our study demonstrates that dispersal is not a major factor in driving community diversity in this invaded, semi-arid system. Results do suggest, however, that increases in drought frequency likely benefit non-native species over natives in the long term. Climate Change Ecology, 2 ISSN:2666-9005