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There are numerous reports in the literature of advancing trends in phenophases of plants, insects and birds attributed to rising temperature resulting from human-driven climate warming. One mechanism that enables a population to respond rapidly to changes in the environ- ment is termed phenotypic plasticity. This plasticity grants a degree of flexibility to enable the tim- ing of developmental stages to coincide with resource availability. If, however, environmental con- ditions exceed the plastic limits of an organism, evolutionary change may be necessary in order to ensure continued survival of their populations. We review evidence for phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation in phenological characteristics associated with climatic warming. We focus this review on examples from trees, insects and birds. We found many reports of direct observations of phenotypic plasticity but fewer studies providing conclusive evidence of genetic adaptation. Evi- dence for changes in genes linked with adaptive traits associated with a warming climate was stronger in insects, that have a relatively short life-cycle, than in longer-lived birds and trees. Fur- ther research is required to identify both appropriate long-term data sets for a range of species and traits and suitable analytical methods, which will permit the study of the complex interaction between phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation of organisms and their populations in response to climatic change.

Abstract A protected area (PA) tends to be designated in an area where tracts of primary forest remain, often with poor accessibility due to terrain features and yet with some exposure to threats. Typically, a PA is at the start of a ‘forest transition’ gradient. The establishment of a PA influences the whole gradient. We analyzed the temporal patterns of land-use change inside and outside four PAs, with one located in each of Laos, Indonesia, Madagascar and Cameroon. In Laos, in the Viengkham landscape, the rates of conversion of natural forest increased after the designation of the PA and were higher than the spatial baseline predicted. In the three other landscapes, the policies associated with the implementation of PAs increased the conversion rate immediately outside the boundary of the PAs. In Indonesia, in the Bungo landscape, forms of land-use associated with multifunctional agroforestry activities involving rubber trees land-use became the target for conversion to oil palm and monoculture rubber tree crops when the rules on the protection of the remaining natural forest were tightened. We tested a new metric for the degree of integration of forest in multifunctional landscapes which recognizes the surrounding matrix, both as surrogate habitat and as a corridor for tree species. Two important findings were: (i) a ‘leakage’ zone of influence of at least 10 km around a PA needs to be included for quantification of the deforestation and degradation changes that may be due to forest protection inside the PA and (ii) agroforest and other mixed tree cover can maintain or increase the degree of integration of forest in the multifunctional landscape for biodiversity maintenance and conservation, while providing a source of livelihood for the local people.

International agricultural carbon market projects face significant challenges in delivering greenhouse gas mitigation objectives whilst also seeking to provide additional benefits for poverty alleviation. The carbon credit producer (the smallholder farmer) and carbon credit buyer in the carbon market transaction typically operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Buyers operate at a global scale, responding to opportunities for financial speculation and both private and public climate actionplans. Farmers operate within households, farms, and immediate agricultural landscapes, pursuing livelihood and food security needs. These different scales often result in mismatches of timing, payment, and knowledge in market transactions and can be partially rectified by project developers who serve to broker the relationship between the farmers and the buyers. We examined eight East African agricultural carbon market projects to determine how project developers function as bridging organizations and minimize the mismatches between these actors. Results show that projects better bridged the timing and payment gap between buyers and producers when project developers provided non-monetary benefits or direct monetary assistance to farmers. However, knowledge gaps remained a significant barrier for farmers wishing to participate in the market. We discuss how project developers brokered relationships in ways that reflected their interests and highlight the limitations, trade-offs, and challenges that must be overcome if win-win outcomes of poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are to be realized.

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season.We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas.Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects.

Coconut coir dust is finding broad application in the ornamental sector as peat substitute. However, deeper investigations are needed since its performances are variable and not always optimal for different plant species and growing conditions. The use of non-thermal plasma (NTP) in re-circulating nutrient solution appears a promising and sustainable strategy to enhance crop protection, decrease the use of sanitizers and pesticides, and increase yield and quality of ornamental productions. Nevertheless, only a few examples of NTP application on containerized crops under operational growing conditions are available, particularly in combination with different substrates and fertigation regimes. In this work the application of NTP was tested on the nutrient solution used for the production of Ranunculus asiaticus potted plants. The effect was assessed in growing plants using two substrates (both 50:50 v v-1): 1) peat:perlite, and 2) coconut coir dust:perlite, and with two levels of fertilization. Plants grown on coconut coir dust had lower total biomass and flower number. On the other hand, in terms of biomass and tissue nutrient content, R. asiaticus plants developeded better at lower nutrient concentration than at the standard nutrient solution. NTP treatment increased the green biomass while did not improve the flower production. NTP-based sanitizing effects on the root zone, where the number of colony-forming units of fungi was significantly reduced, were observed only in presence of the standard nutrient solution.

Most studies on the responsiveness of maize production to various variables have dwelled on the responsiveness of maize production to variations in precipitation or temperature. This study seeks to verify the response of maize production in Cameroon to both climate trends and land use change. Therefore, for the first time, our study presents findings on the relative influence of both climate and land use change on maize production in Cameroon. The data used in this analysis are essentially time series data spanning the period 1961–2006. The data on quantity of maize produced, area of maize harvested and number of maize seeds planted was taken from (http://faostat.fao.org). The mean maize growing season temperature and precipitation data were collected from the 0.5° × 0.5° gridded collaborative datasets of the UNEP and the School of Geography and Environment at Oxford University and from the global crop calendar dataset. The data were analyzed using the average rate of change, detrended simulations, the multiple linear regression technique, correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination. The results show that maize production in Cameroon is more likely responsive to land use change (forest area change) than rainfall and temperature. However, for the climatic variables, maize production is more responsive to temperature variations than precipitation. In other words, the greater the land use change (forest area loss) the more likely the long run losses in the current maize production gains while rising temperatures were found to be more suitable for maize production. Even though the 1990s marked the period of recovering rainfall levels in most of the Sahel, large fluctuations were still recorded.