• Energy Research
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Project: GCOS Earth Heat Inventory - A study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory (EHI), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period from 1960 to present. Summary: The file “GCOS_EHI_1960-2020_Earth_Heat_Inventory_Ocean_Heat_Content_data.nc” contains a consistent long-term Earth system heat inventory over the period 1960-2020. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This dataset is based on a study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory published in von Schuckmann et al. (2020), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2020. The dataset also contains estimates for global ocean heat content over 1960-2020 for different depth layers, i.e., 0-300m, 0-700m, 700-2000m, 0-2000m, 2000-bottom, which are described in von Schuckmann et al. (2022). This version includes an update of heat storage of global ocean heat content, where one additional product (Li et al., 2022) had been included to the initial estimate. The Earth heat inventory had been updated accordingly, considering also the update for continental heat content (Cuesta-Valero et al., 2023).

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the “high hazardous” category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures.

As Earth’s climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.

Abstract Based on an extensive dataset containing aggregated hourly energy consumption readings of residents during March 2011 and October 2012 in South Ontario, Canada, this paper estimates the energy consumption of circulating pumps of residential swimming pools (CPRSP) non-intrusively, and quantifies the impact of CPRSP on the power system. The main challenges are that, first, widely used non-intrusive appliance load monitoring (NIALM) methods are not applicable to this work, due to the low sampling rate and the lack of the energy consumption pattern of CPRSP; second, temperature-based building energy disaggregation methods are not suitable for this work, as they highly depend on the accurate base load estimation and predefined parameters. To overcome these issues, in this paper, first it is found that, during the pool season, for homes with and without swimming pools, the ratio between their base loads is approximately equal to the ratio between their temperature-dependent energy consumptions, then a novel weighted difference change-point (WDCP) model has been proposed. The advantages of the WDCP model are that, on one hand, it doesn’t depend on the base load estimation and predefined parameters; on the other hand, it has no requirement on the data sampling rate and the prior information of energy consumption patterns of CPRSP. Based on the WDCP model it is shown that, the average hourly energy consumption of CPRSP is 0.7425 kW, and the minimum and the maximum hourly energy consumptions are 0.5274 kW at 9:00 and 0.9612 kW at 17:00, respectively. At the peak hour 19:00, July 21, 2011, CPRSP contributes 20.36% energy consumption of homes with swimming pools, as well as 8.48% peak load of all neighborhoods. As a result, the peak load could be reduced by 8.48% if all CPRSP are stopped during the peak hour.

AbstractData capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research—from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non‐forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC‐BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599. To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology—from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Abstract This paper explores the relationships between travelers’ intentions to use low carbon travel modes, a set of socio-psychological variables, and the influence of government supported low carbon travel policies. Specifically, a Comprehensive Intention Determination Model (CIDM) is used to study residents’ low-carbon travel intentions, based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and value-belief-norm theory (VBN), and using structural equations modeling (SEM) applied to survey responses by 811 residents of the city of Tianjin, China. Low-carbon transport policies are shown to influence traveler intentions primarily through attitude, subjective and personal norms, awareness of consequence, and ascription of responsibility; and that combining positive social-psychological factors towards low-carbon awareness with effective low carbon transport policies can influence the residents’ willingness to choose low-carbon travel modes to a moderate degree.

Two kinds of disparities pervade China and threaten its well-being. The first, regional disparities focus on levels of economic development, which vary considerably across China. The second is largely a corollary of the first, referring to mismatch in energy supply and demand, with some places suffering severe shortages while others are blessed with significant surpluses. Western China enjoys the dubious distinction of recording the country's lowest levels of economic development while, paradoxically, being blessed with plentiful reserves of energy and non-energy minerals. Turning those surplus resources to good account through transferring them to minerals and energy-hungry Eastern China is seen by policy-makers as something of a panacea. Not only will such a strategy significantly boost Western China's economic prospects, but it will eliminate the resource shortages currently constraining the East's vibrant growth. The issues of regional disparities, energy mismatches and transfers of these resources are discussed, with attention given to both spatial and time perspectives. The paper concludes with a cautious endorsement of the policy initiatives that promote the strategy of mineral transfers.