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Neurobasis chinensis is widely distributed in eastern tropical Asia. Its only congener in China, the N. anderssoni, has not been observed for decades. To protect N. chinensis, it is necessary to understand the ecological properties of its habitats and specie’s range shift under climate change. In the present study, we modeled its potential distribution under one historical, current, and four future scenarios. We evaluated the importance of the factors that shape its distribution and habitats and predicted the historical and current core spatial distributions and their shifting in the future. Two historical core distribution areas were identified: the inland region of the Bay of Bengal and south-central Vietnam. The current potential distribution includes south China, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Luzon of Philippines, Malaysia, southwest and northeast India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia (Java, Sumatera), Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and foothills of the Himalayas, in total, ca. 3.59 × 106 km2. Only one core distribution remained, concentrated in south-central Vietnam. In a warming future, the core distribution, high suitable habitats, and even the whole range of N. chinensis will expand and shift northwards. Currently, N. chinensis mainly resides in forest ecosystems below 1200 m above sea level (preferred 500 m to 1200 m a.s.l.). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of driest quarter, and seasonality of precipitation are important factors shaping the species distribution. Our study provides systematic information on habitats and geographical distribution, which is useful for the conservation of N. chinensis.

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are responsible for a significant amount of CO2 emissions in the transport sector. The share of these vehicles is still increasing in the European Union (EU); nevertheless, rigorous CO2 emission reduction schemes will apply in the near future. Different measures to decrease CO2 emissions are being already discussed, e.g., the electrification of the powertrain. Additionally, the impact of autonomous driving on energy consumption is being investigated. The most common types are fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) and battery-only vehicles (BEVs). It is still unclear which type of powertrain will prevail in the future. Therefore, we developed a method to compare different powertrain options based on different scenarios in terms of primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and fuel costs. We compared the results with the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). The model includes a model for the climatization of the driver’s cabin, which we used to investigate the impact of autonomous driving on energy consumption. It became clear that certain powertrains offer advantages for certain applications and that sensitivities exist with regard to primary energy and CO2 emissions. Overall, it became clear that electrified powertrains could reduce the CO2 emissions and the primary energy consumption of HDVs. Moreover, autonomous vehicles can save energy in most cases.

Abstract In this work, a novel hydrogen production process (Integrated Chemical Looping Water Splitting “ICLWS”) has been developed. The modelled process has been optimised via heat integration between the main process units. The effects of the key process variables (i.e. the oxygen carrier-to-fuel ratio, steam flow rate and discharged gas temperature) on the behaviour of the reducer and oxidiser reactors were investigated. The thermal and exergy efficiencies of the process were studied and compared against a conventional steam-methane reforming (SMR) process. Finally, the economic feasibility of the process was evaluated based on the corresponding CAPEX, OPEX and first-year plant cost per kg of the hydrogen produced. The thermal efficiency of the ICLWS process was improved by 31.1% compared to the baseline (Chemical Looping Water Splitting without heat integration) process. The hydrogen efficiency and the effective efficiencies were also higher by 11.7% and 11.9%, respectively compared to the SMR process. The sensitivity analysis showed that the oxygen carrier–to-methane and -steam ratios enhanced the discharged gas and solid conversions from both the reducer and oxidiser. Unlike for the oxidiser, the temperature of the discharged gas and solids from the reducer had an impact on the gas and solid conversion. The economic evaluation of the process indicated hydrogen production costs of $1.41 and $1.62 per kilogram of hydrogen produced for Fe-based oxygen carriers supported by ZrO2 and MgAl2O4, respectively - 14% and 1.2% lower for the SMR process H2 production costs respectively.

AbstractThe current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.