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According to the renewable energy directive 2009/28/EC, the European Union Member States should increase by 2020 the use of renewable energy to 20% of gross final energy consumption and to reach a mandatory share of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector. This study aims to quantify the impact of 2020 bioenergy targets on the land use in the EU, based on the projections of the National Renewable Action Plans in four scenarios: Scenario 1. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs; Scenario 2. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, no second generation biofuels; Scenario 3. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, reduced import of biofuels and bioliquids; Scenario 4. Bioenergy targets according to NREAPs, high imports of biofuels and bioliquids. This study also considers the credit for co-products generated from biofuel production. The analysis reveals that the land used in the EU for bioenergy would range between 13.5 Mha and 25.2 Mha in 2020. This represent between 12.2% and 22.5% of the total arable land used and 7.3% and 13.5% of the Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA). In the NREAPS scenario, about 17.4 Mha would be used for bioenergy production, representing 15.7% of arable land and 9.4% of UAA. The increased demand from biofuels would lead to an increased generation of co-products, replacing conventional fodder for animal feed. Considering the co-products, the land used for bioenergy would range between 8.8 Mha and 15.0 Mha in 2020 in the various scenarios. This represent between 7.9% and 13.3% of the total arable land used in the EU and 4.7% and 8.0% of the UAA. In the NREAPS scenario, when co-products are considered, about 10.3 Mha would be used for biofuels, bioliquids and bioenergy production, representing 9.3% of arable land and 5.6% of agricultural land. This study further provides detailed data on the impact on land use in each Member State.

AbstractElevated CO2 concentration has been reported to decrease grain nutrient concentrations and thus worsen nutritional deficiency and hidden hunger. One nutritional aspect is mineral content, yet mineral bioavailability can be limited by the presence of phytic acid. Given that future climate scenarios predict elevated global temperature driven by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we used Temperature by Free‐Air CO2 Enrichment (T‐FACE) field experiments to investigate whether elevated temperature alters the effects of elevated CO2 on grain mineral concentrations, grain mineral yields, and their bioavailability in a range of wheat and rice genotypes. We found that the negative effects of elevated CO2 were compensated for by positive effects of elevated temperature. As a result, the combined elevated CO2 and elevated temperature increased concentrations of some minerals by up to ~15% in both rice and wheat relative to control conditions. Moreover, the combined elevated CO2 and elevated temperature did not significantly change total yields of some minerals despite lower grain yields. The combined CO2 and temperature elevation increased phytic acid concentration in rice by 18.1% but decreased it in wheat by 3.5%. The mineral bioavailability, estimated as the mole ratio of phytic acid to minerals in rice and wheat grains, was limited by the combined CO2 and temperature elevation in only a few cases. Our results indicate that under future climate conditions of elevated temperature and CO2, the nutritional quality of rice and wheat with respect to minerals may remain unchanged.

Abstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.

Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation in Central Europe. Little is known about how warming and drought will affect phenological patterns of oaks, which are considered to possess excellent adaptability to these climatic changes. Here, we investigated bud burst and intra-annual shoot growth of Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens grown on two different forest soils and exposed to air warming and drought. Phenological development was assessed over the course of three growing seasons. Warming advanced bud burst by 1–3 days °C−1 and led to an earlier start of intra-annual shoot growth. Despite this phenological shift, total time span of annual growth and shoot biomass were not affected. Drought changed the frequency and intensity of intra-annual shoot growth and advanced bud burst in the subsequent spring of a severe summer drought by 1–2 days. After re-wetting, shoot growth recovered within a few days, demonstrating the superior drought tolerance of this tree genus. Our findings show that phenological patterns of oaks are modified by warming and drought but also suggest that ontogenetic factors and/or limitations of water and nutrients counteract warming effects on the biomass and the entire span of annual shoot growth. PLoS ONE, 9 (2) ISSN:1932-6203

Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.

Abstract In recent years living walls have increasingly spread, thus becoming a diffuse architectural envelope cladding technology. Consequently, a more precise understanding of their thermal behavior and impact on the building energy balance are needed. One of the most important effects provided by the use of living walls is the shading of the building envelope, with clear benefits during the cooling period. Furthermore, many features characterize the thermal behavior of living walls, namely plant species, leaf area index (LAI), evapotranspiration, emissivity and air cavity type. All these particular characteristics have been accounted in the mathematical model developed in the frame of the presented research, whose aim is to provide a tool for the prediction of the thermal behavior of living walls. Two kinds of living walls, one with grass and closed air cavity and the other one with vertical garden and open air cavity were considered. The results achieved by means of the developed model show a good agreement with the measurements also supported by model efficiency indexes such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSEC). Values of around 0.7 were obtained for the NSEC index for both the investigated living walls.

Dans les latitudes tempérées élevées, les ongulés donnent généralement naissance dans une fenêtre temporelle étroite lorsque les conditions sont optimales pour la survie de la progéniture au printemps ou au début de l'été, et utilisent une photopériode changeante pour les conceptions temporelles afin d'anticiper ces conditions. Cependant, dans les basses latitudes tropicales, la variation de la durée du jour est minime et la variation des précipitations rend le cycle saisonnier moins prévisible. Néanmoins, plusieurs espèces d'ongulés conservent des pics de naissance étroits dans de telles conditions, tandis que d'autres montrent que les naissances se propagent assez largement tout au long de l'année. Nous avons étudié comment la variation des précipitations d'une année à l'autre et d'une année à l'autre a influencé le moment de la reproduction de quatre espèces d'ongulés montrant ces modèles contrastés dans la région de Masai Mara au Kenya. Les quatre espèces présentaient des pics de naissance au cours de la période optimale putative au début de la saison humide. Pour le hartebeest et l'impala, le pic de naissance est diffus et la progéniture naît tout au long de l'année. En revanche, le topi et le phacochère ont montré une concentration saisonnière étroite de naissances, avec des conceptions supprimées une fois que les précipitations mensuelles sont tombées en dessous d'un seuil. Les fortes précipitations de la saison précédente et les fortes pluies précoces de l'année en cours ont amélioré la survie au stade juvénile de toutes les espèces, à l'exception de l'impala. Nos résultats révèlent comment la variation des précipitations affectant la croissance des graminées et donc la nutrition des herbivores peut régir la phénologie reproductive des ongulés dans les latitudes tropicales où la variation de la longueur du jour est minime. Le mécanisme sous-jacent semble être la suppression des conceptions une fois que les gains nutritionnels deviennent insuffisants. En réagissant de manière proximale à la variation des précipitations au cours de l'année, les ongulés de la savane tropicale sont moins susceptibles d'être affectés négativement par les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sur la phénologie de la végétation que les ongulés du Nord montrant un contrôle photopériodique plus rigide sur le moment de la reproduction. En latitudes templadas altas, los ungulados generalmente dan a luz dentro de una ventana de tiempo estrecha cuando las condiciones son óptimas para la supervivencia de la descendencia en primavera o principios del verano, y utilizan conceptos cambiantes de fotoperíodo a tiempo para anticipar estas condiciones. Sin embargo, en latitudes tropicales bajas, la variación de la duración del día es mínima, y la variación de las precipitaciones hace que el ciclo estacional sea menos predecible. Sin embargo, varias especies de ungulados conservan picos de nacimiento estrechos en tales condiciones, mientras que otras muestran nacimientos muy extendidos a lo largo del año. Investigamos cómo la variación interanual de las precipitaciones influyó en el tiempo reproductivo de cuatro especies de ungulados que muestran estos patrones contrastantes en la región de Masai Mara en Kenia. Las cuatro especies exhibieron picos de nacimiento durante el periodo óptimo putativo en la estación húmeda temprana. Para hartebeest e impala, el pico de nacimiento era difuso y las crías nacían durante todo el año. Por el contrario, topi y jabalí mostraron una estrecha concentración estacional de nacimientos, con concepciones suprimidas una vez que las precipitaciones mensuales cayeron por debajo de un nivel umbral. Las altas precipitaciones en la temporada anterior y las altas lluvias tempranas en el año en curso mejoraron la supervivencia en la etapa juvenil para todas las especies, excepto los impalas. Nuestros hallazgos revelan cómo la variación de la precipitación que afecta el crecimiento de la hierba y, por lo tanto, la nutrición de los herbívoros, puede gobernar la fenología reproductiva de los ungulados en latitudes tropicales donde la variación de la duración del día es mínima. El mecanismo subyacente parece ser la supresión de las concepciones una vez que las ganancias nutricionales se vuelven insuficientes. Al responder proximalmente a la variación de las precipitaciones dentro del año, es menos probable que los ungulados de la sabana tropical se vean afectados negativamente por las consecuencias del calentamiento global para la fenología de la vegetación que los ungulados del norte que muestran un control fotoperiódico más rígido sobre el tiempo reproductivo. In high temperate latitudes, ungulates generally give birth within a narrow time window when conditions are optimal for offspring survival in spring or early summer, and use changing photoperiod to time conceptions so as to anticipate these conditions. However, in low tropical latitudes day length variation is minimal, and rainfall variation makes the seasonal cycle less predictable. Nevertheless, several ungulate species retain narrow birth peaks under such conditions, while others show births spread quite widely through the year. We investigated how within-year and between-year variation in rainfall influenced the reproductive timing of four ungulate species showing these contrasting patterns in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. All four species exhibited birth peaks during the putative optimal period in the early wet season. For hartebeest and impala, the birth peak was diffuse and offspring were born throughout the year. In contrast, topi and warthog showed a narrow seasonal concentration of births, with conceptions suppressed once monthly rainfall fell below a threshold level. High rainfall in the previous season and high early rains in the current year enhanced survival into the juvenile stage for all the species except impala. Our findings reveal how rainfall variation affecting grass growth and hence herbivore nutrition can govern the reproductive phenology of ungulates in tropical latitudes where day length variation is minimal. The underlying mechanism seems to be the suppression of conceptions once nutritional gains become insufficient. Through responding proximally to within-year variation in rainfall, tropical savanna ungulates are less likely to be affected adversely by the consequences of global warming for vegetation phenology than northern ungulates showing more rigid photoperiodic control over reproductive timing. في خطوط العرض المعتدلة العالية، تلد ذوات الحوافر عمومًا في غضون فترة زمنية ضيقة عندما تكون الظروف مثالية لبقاء النسل في الربيع أو أوائل الصيف، وتستخدم تغيير الفترة الضوئية إلى مفاهيم زمنية لتوقع هذه الظروف. ومع ذلك، في خطوط العرض الاستوائية المنخفضة، يكون تباين طول اليوم ضئيلًا، ويجعل تباين هطول الأمطار الدورة الموسمية أقل قابلية للتنبؤ. ومع ذلك، فإن العديد من الأنواع ذوات الحوافر تحتفظ بقمم ولادة ضيقة في ظل هذه الظروف، في حين أن البعض الآخر يظهر أن الولادات تنتشر على نطاق واسع خلال العام. لقد حققنا في كيفية تأثير التباين في هطول الأمطار خلال العام وبين الأعوام على التوقيت التكاثري لأربعة أنواع من ذوات الحوافر تظهر هذه الأنماط المتناقضة في منطقة ماساي مارا في كينيا. أظهرت جميع الأنواع الأربعة قمم ولادة خلال الفترة المثلى المفترضة في موسم الأمطار المبكر. بالنسبة لحيوان النحل والامبالا، كانت ذروة الولادة منتشرة وولدت ذرية على مدار العام. على النقيض من ذلك، أظهر التوبي والخنزير الحربي تركيزًا موسميًا ضيقًا للولادات، مع قمع المفاهيم بمجرد انخفاض هطول الأمطار الشهري إلى ما دون مستوى العتبة. عزز ارتفاع هطول الأمطار في الموسم السابق وارتفاع الأمطار المبكرة في العام الحالي البقاء على قيد الحياة في مرحلة الشباب لجميع الأنواع باستثناء الإمبالا. تكشف النتائج التي توصلنا إليها كيف أن تباين هطول الأمطار الذي يؤثر على نمو العشب وبالتالي تغذية الحيوانات العاشبة يمكن أن يحكم الفينولوجيا الإنجابية لذوات الحوافر في خطوط العرض الاستوائية حيث يكون تباين طول اليوم ضئيلًا. يبدو أن الآلية الأساسية هي قمع المفاهيم بمجرد أن تصبح المكاسب الغذائية غير كافية. من خلال الاستجابة القريبة من التباين في هطول الأمطار خلال العام، فإن ذوات الحوافر في السافانا الاستوائية أقل عرضة للتأثر سلبًا بعواقب الاحترار العالمي على فينولوجيا الغطاء النباتي من ذوات الحوافر الشمالية التي تظهر تحكمًا دوريًا ضوئيًا أكثر صرامة في توقيت التكاثر.

AbstractA large number of small- to medium-sized community ponds exist in most parts of the Terai region in Nepal. Such ponds could be a viable alternative for other forms of surface irrigation. But, with the lack of efficient management, many of these ponds remain underutilized. An effort was made to facilitate the rehabilitation of such a pond in a selected village of Rupandehi District in Western Terai region of Nepal. This paper aims to evaluate the changed water availability situation in post-monsoon seasons after the pond rehabilitation. The paper also evaluates the feasibility of such interventions especially focusing on the potential to provide additional water and improve agricultural productivity. Results showed small increases in quantifiable indicators such as water availability, cropping intensity, productivity and income. The new institutional setup improved water allocation, improved operation and maintenance, and increased social awareness among the people about the importance of underutilized water resources. The intervention has the potential to be replicated in similar contexts.