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Abstract Rising temperature has been associated with increased occurrence of herbivorous insect outbreaks, explained by several direct and indirect mechanisms. Whereas natural enemies are known key drivers of forest‐defoliating insect cycles, indirect effects of temperature on insect's ability to defend against pathogens and parasitoids (e.g., immunocompetence), as well as the interaction with other mechanisms (e.g., diet), remain less explored. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of temperature and diet on the performance and immune response of the model lepidopteran system Ormiscodes amphimone (Saturniidae) and its host plants Nothofagus spp. (Nothofagaceae). Larvae of O. amphimone were reared under two temperature conditions (ambient 18:6°C and warmed, 21:6°C; light: dark, 14:10 h) and on leaves of two of their preferred Nothofagus host plants, which vary in quality (lower N. antarctica–higher N. pumilio). We measured developmental time, female pupal weight as a proxy of fitness, relative growth rate, nutritional indices and melanisation of a monofilament as a proxy of immune response. Results showed that an average rise of 2°C favours larval immunocompetence, potentially decreasing mortality exerted by parasitoids. Moreover, depending on diet, an increase in temperature can either maintain (on more nutritious N. pumilio leaves) or enhance (on less nutritious N. antarctica leaves) larval nutritional efficiency, performance and female pupal weight. Hence, an increase in temperature could enhance O. amphimone population growth, through attenuating differences caused by diet and enhancing immunocompetence, favouring outbreak frequency, severity and area.

Although many studies have examined the phenological mismatches between interacting organisms, few have addressed the potential for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions. In the Arctic, rapid phenological changes in many taxa are occurring in association with earlier snowmelt. The timing of snowmelt is jointly affected by the size of the late winter snowpack and the temperature during the spring thaw. Increased winter snowpack results in delayed snowmelt, whereas higher air temperatures and faster snowmelt advance the timing of snowmelt. Where interannual variation in snowpack is substantial, changes in the timing of snowmelt can be largely uncoupled from changes in air temperature. Using detailed, long‐term data on the flowering phenology of four arctic plant species from Zackenberg, Greenland, we investigate whether there is a phenological component to the temperature conditions experienced prior to and during flowering. In particular, we assess the role of timing of flowering in determining pre‐flowering exposure to freezing temperatures and to the temperatures experienced prior to flowering. We then examine the implications of flowering phenology for flower abundance. Earlier snowmelt resulted in greater exposure to freezing conditions, suggesting an increased potential for a mismatch between the timing of flowering and seasonal weather conditions and an increased potential for negative consequences, such as freezing damage. We also found a parabolic relationship between the timing of flowering and the temperature experienced during flowering after taking interannual temperature effects into account. If timing of flowering advances to a cooler period of the growing season, this may moderate the effects of a general warming trend across years. Flower abundance was quadratically associated with the timing of flowering, such that both early and late flowering led to lower flower abundance than did intermediate flowering. Our results indicate that shifting the timing of flowering affects the temperature experienced during flower development and flowering beyond that imposed by interannual variations in climate. We also found that phenological timing may affect flower abundance, and hence, fitness. These findings suggest that plant population responses to future climate change will be shaped not only by extrinsic climate forcing, but also by species' phenological responses.

Intentionally allowing or promoting invasion by non‐native trees into areas characterized by treeless vegetation could contribute to climate‐change mitigation by increasing carbon (C) sequestration. In some areas of the world, incentives exist to retain invasive non‐native trees in natural systems as a mechanism for increasing ecosystem C storage and reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Although this novel opportunity for C sequestration holds appeal, such an approach is problematic for several reasons: (1) invasive trees do not always increase net C sequestration due to greater occurrence of fire or reduced soil C; (2) lower albedo in invaded areas can increase absorption of solar radiation, thereby offsetting potential C sequestration; and (3) tree invasions often also have negative effects on biodiversity, economic opportunities, and water yield. Such drawbacks are sufficient to raise doubts about the widespread use of non‐native tree invasions in treeless areas as a tool to ameliorate climate change.

AbstractTheory predicts that ecosystem engineers should have their most dramatic effects when they enable species, through habitat amelioration, to live in zones where physical and biological conditions would otherwise suppress or limit them. Mutualisms between mycorrhizal fungi and plants are key determinants of productivity and biodiversity in most terrestrial systems, but are thought to be unimportant in wetlands because anoxic sediments exclude fungal symbionts. Our field surveys revealed arbuscular mycorrhizal associations on salt marsh plant roots, but only in the presence of crabs that oxygenate soils as a by‐product of burrowing. Field experiments demonstrate that fungal colonization is dependent on crab burrowing and responsible for nearly 35% of plant growth. These results highlight ecosystem engineers as ecological linchpins that can activate and maintain key mutualisms between species. Our findings align salt marshes with other important biogenic habitats whose productivity is reliant on mutualisms between the primary foundation species and micro‐organisms.

• Patterns of precipitation are likely to change significantly in the coming century, with important but poorly understood consequences for plant communities. Experimental and correlative studies may provide insight into expected changes, but little research has addressed the degree of concordance between these approaches. • We synthesized results from four experimental water addition studies with a correlative analysis of community changes across a large natural precipitation gradient in the United States. We investigated whether community composition, summarized with plant functional traits, responded similarly to increasing precipitation among studies and sites. • In field experiments, increased precipitation favored species with small seed size, short leaf life span and high leaf nitrogen (N) concentration. However, with increasing precipitation along the natural gradient, community composition shifted towards species with higher mean seed mass, longer leaf life span and lower leaf N concentrations. • The differences in temporal and spatial scale of experimental manipulations and natural gradients may explain these contrasting results. Our results highlight the complexity of responses to climate change, and suggest that transient dynamics may not reflect long-term shifts in functional diversity and community composition. We propose a model of community change that incorporates these differences between short- and long-term responses to climate change.

Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant in the tropics. Climate change has the potential to greatly expand fire-prone areas to moist and wet tropical forests and grasslands that have been traditionally less fire-prone, and to extend and create more temporal variability in fire seasons. We built a machine learning random forest classifier to analyze the relationship between climatic, socio-economic, and fire history data with fire occurrence and extent for the years 2003–2011 in Puerto Rico, nearly 35,000 fires. Using classifiers based on climate measurements alone, we found that the climate space is a reliable associate, if not a predictor, of fire occurrence and extent in this environment. We found a strong relationship between occurrence and a change from average weather conditions, and between extent and severity of weather conditions. The probability that the random forest classifiers will rank a positive example higher than a negative example is 0.8–0.89 in the classifiers for deciding if a fire occurs, and 0.64–0.69 in the classifiers for deciding if the fire is greater than 5 ha. Future climate projections of extreme seasons indicate increased potential for fire occurrence with larger extents.

Madrepora oculata and Lophelia pertusa are the two main ecosystem engineering, scleractinian cold-water corals (CWC) found in Mediterranean canyons. Factors controlling CWC distribution in the Mediterranean Sea are not yet fully understood in spite of such ecosystems being recognized as sensitive habitats by the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean. As they are threatened by fishery activity, they are subject to management and protection measures. In order to contribute towards identifying the major drivers governing CWC distribution at local scale, which is a prerequisite for proper management, we focused our attention on two canyons: (1) the Cassidaigne canyon, located in the eastern part of the Gulf of Lion, in which CWC ecosystems have settled in an upwelling environment and form large colonies, and (2) the Bari Canyon System, in the southwestern Adriatic, a site of coral growth that has been hypothesized to respond to hydrographic processes, including the cascading of North Adriatic Dense Water. The objective of our study was to combine several ecological variables to describe the environmental conditions in favor of CWC settlement and growth: (1) CWC observations, extracted from geo-referenced underwater videos, (2) seafloor characteristics derived from high-resolution bathymetry, (3) data on local hydrodynamic conditions (from high resolution hydrodynamic models). Habitat suitability models were used to identify the main variables driving CWC distribution. Models based on presence-only data (Maxent and ENFA) and on presence-absence data (GLMs) were fitted and compared. Seafloor ruggedness was identified to be the major factor driving CWC distribution in both canyons with the three methods. Two hydrodynamic variables (mean temperature and current velocity) were the second most important predictors for explaining CWC settlement and growth. Suitable areas for CWC habitat occurrence were mapped for both canyons. Spatial distributions were generally predicted at the same locations, although the GLM gave less realistic results in the Bari canyon system probably due to the limited range cover of the entire environmental conditions by the absence points, suggesting that the Maxent and ENFA models were more efficient. These theoretical distributions will help in the assessment of potential habitat extent in the deep-sea and also in the scheme of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD).