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Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.

Abstract Electrical energy storage represents a necessary link between sustainability goals and the enhancement of intermittent renewable energy sources penetration in electricity grids. Liquid air energy storage (LAES) is a promising large scale thermo-mechanical energy storage system whose round trip efficiency is largely affected by the performance of the sub-thermal energy storages. The high grade cold storage (HGCS) is by far the most important due to the crucial thermodynamic recovery of the waste cold stream released by the liquid air regasification process. LAES pilot plant and pre-commercial demonstrator, as well as the vast majority of the theoretical and experimental analysis found in literature studies, currently design to store that exergetically valuable cold source in sensible heat (SH) thermal energy storage, economically efficient but low energy density solution. Conversely, phase change material (PCM) has the potential to store a larger amount of energy using the same amount of storage volume. The objective of the present work is to numerically and experimentally investigate the thermal behaviour of a novel cryogenic HGCS packed bed filled by PCM and determine how the novelty introduced affects the LAES thermodynamic and economic performance compared to the SH configuration. To this end, a simplified transient one-dimensional numerical model to simulate the charging and discharging phase of the HGCS system has been developed and successfully validated against experimental results provided by literature for SH medium and an experimental campaign carried out on a novel lab scale HGCS at TESLAB@NTU for PCM, representing a unicum in literature for both PCM and LAES applications. The numerical results have shown that the introduction of a PCM in the HGCS mitigates the thermocline effect shown in SH configuration ensuring: a) longer discharge phase by means of the thermal buffer phenomena triggered by the phase change process and b) lower specific consumption compared to SH configuration (0.272 vs 0.330 kWhe/kgLA) due to a lower time average outlet temperature of the heat transfer fluid during the HGCS discharge, corresponding to LAES charge phase. From an economic perspective, the decrease of the time average specific consumptions results in a notable payback period inferior to 3 years, making the economic investment considerably attractive.