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In this study, a novel framework was proposed by incorporating fuzzy MCDM (multi-criteria decision-making) methods into the SWOT (strength–weakness–opportunity–threat) analysis for diagnosing China’s modern CTC (coal-to-chemical) industry. In the framework, the SWOT analysis was employed to systematically identify the critical factors and then formulate the strategies for promoting the development of this industry. Subsequently, the weights of the factors were accurately determined by using the fuzzy DANP method (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based analytic network process), which tackles the uncertainty in the subjective judgments and the interrelationships among the affecting factors, while the sequence of the strategies was rigorously determined by developing a fusion approach, which reconciles the conflicting rankings derived from four fuzzy MCDM methods for offering a compromised decision. The obtained results were confirmed by performing the sensitivity analysis, which provides two key explanations for the China’s CTC industry. First, two factors from the opportunity perspective, i.e., “clean utilization of coal” and “energy transformation,” and a threat factor of “policy uncertainty” were identified as the most critical factors among the twelve candidates, demonstrating that the external factors (opportunities and threats) play more important roles than the internal drivers (strengths and weaknesses) in affecting the current status of China’s CTC industry. Second, two competitive strategies including drafting national development plan and preferential development of demonstration projects are more favored than the other six strategies, implying that the measures by taking advantage of the strengths to avoid the threats could be effective to promote the development of CTC in China.

AbstractBhutan is known for its approach to high‐value, low‐volume tourism development. Bhutan has been cited as an example of a best case approach to sustainable tourism. However, like other landlocked countries, Bhutan relies heavily on imported goods from neighbouring countries such as India and Thailand, leading to significant economic leakages. This raises the question of how economically sustainable Bhutan's tourism is. This research employs a mixed microeconomic and macroeconomic analysis of linkages and leakages between different sectors in the Bhutanese tourism industry, in particular hotels and agriculture to ascertain the volume and value of these leakages.

Abstract This paper aims to explore the appropriate investment strategy for Chinese power enterprises with the effect of the nationwide carbon emissions trading (NCET) market. Based on the system dynamics (SD) theory and the analysis of investment strategies, the SD model for the investment analysis of power enterprises is proposed. The simulation experiments based on three different investment policy scenarios (i.e., conservative, neutral and active) are conducted. According to the simulation results, the reasonable short-term investment for enterprises should be increased. If enterprises choose to invest more resources in the installation of green powers (hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic), their carbon emissions and profits may be more difficult to achieve qualitative changes in the short term. It is suggested that before the establishment of NCET market, enterprises should give priority to investing in clean technology instead of large-scale green energy installation. In the long run, increasing the investment of green power generation will help enterprises resist the rising cost of carbon trading. In addition, even in the conservative policy environment, the enterprise can still achieve its carbon discharges peak value before 2030, so the government may consider adopting a loose policy standard to support the economic interests of power enterprises.

Abstract Of seven pilot emissions trading schemes (ETS) being run in China, the ETS in Hubei province is the only provincial pilot in the central and western regions of the country with a high GDP growth rate and heavy industrial structure. As such, it is quite representative of China as a whole and its ETS will therefore be reasonably characteristic of a future nationwide market. This paper describes the policy design of the Hubei ETS, including aspects of coverage, cap, allowance allocation, transactions, compliance and penalties. Then, after making a comparison with the other Chinese pilots and emissions trading schemes in the European Union (EU) and California, the paper offers a summary of several distinct features of the Hubei ETS. First, the small numbers of entities that are covered by the scheme produce a considerable proportion of the emissions. This makes Hubei the world׳s third largest carbon market. Second, the Hubei ETS applies several mechanisms to deal with the province’s rapid growth rate. Third, the scheme׳s policy design emphasizes liquidity. In addition to these unique features, the Hubei ETS also shares some common features with all the pilots in China.

With the rapid increase of monitoring devices and controllable facilities in the demand side of electricity networks, more solid information and communication technology (ICT) resources are required to support the development of demand side management (DSM). Different from traditional computation in power systems which customizes ICT resources for mapping applications separately, DSM especially asks for scalability and economic efficiency, because there are more and more stakeholders participating in the computation process. This paper proposes a novel cost-oriented optimization model for a cloud-based ICT infrastructure to allocate cloud computing resources in a flexible and cost-efficient way. Uncertain factors including imprecise computation load prediction and unavailability of computing instances can also be considered in the proposed model. A modified priority list algorithm is specially developed in order to efficiently solve the proposed optimization model and compared with the mature simulating annealing based algorithm. Comprehensive numerical studies are fulfilled to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed cost-oriented model on reducing the operation cost of cloud platform in DSM.

Abstract Long-term management of China's coal overcapacity depends on the targeted policy guidance on industry production capacity expansion in the overcapacity formation process. In this study, coal enterprise and local government are treated as game participants, and a three-stage dynamic game model has been developed to depict the boosting effect of the game behavior of coal enterprise's and local government's capacity investments in different markets of supply and demand. The results are shown in the following: (1) local government has been the "behind-the-scenes" operator of over-investment and redundant construction, and its excessive interventions in coal industry investment have been the primary cause of overcapacity formation; (2) when the market is in short supply, coal enterprise's optimal behavior is to continuously increase the rate of investment growth until it reaches the threshold to obtain the maximum excess profits, ultimately leading to overinvestment in the industry; and (3) the key factors affecting the game abilities of coal enterprise and local government are the market's self-regulation and the central government's supervision intensity. Although the Chinese government, a highly vertically oriented bureaucratic structure, is implementing a mandatory de-capacity policy to alleviate the intensity of excessive coal capacity, it is not a long-term regularization on the supply-side reform.

With the rapid growth of aluminum production, reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s aluminum industry (CAI) is posing a significant challenge. In this study, the energy-related GHG emission trajectories, features and driving forces of CAI are analyzed from the perspective of life cycle analysis (LCA) from 2004 to 2013. Results indicate that CAI experienced a rapid growth of energy-related GHG emissions with an average annual growth of 28.5 million tons CO2e from 2004 to 2013. Energy-scale effect is the main driving force for energy-related GHG emissions increase in CAI, while emission-factor effect of secondary aluminum production plays a marginal effect. Construction and transportation-related activities account for the bulk of the embodied emissions, accounting for more than 40% of the total embodied emissions from CAI. Policy implications for GHG mitigation within the CAI, such as developing secondary aluminum industry, improving energy mix and optimizing resource efficiency of production, are raised.

In future smart grids, with distribution networks having loops more frequently, current transmission contingency analysis (TCA) which usually neglects the distribution power flow variations after a contingency may leave out severe outages. With more distribution management systems deployed on the distribution side, a new transmission CA method based on global power flow (GPF) analysis which integrates both the transmission and distribution power flow is proposed in this paper (named as GTCA) to address the problem. The definition and new features of GTCA are first introduced. Then, the necessity of GTCA is physically illustrated. Difference in the results of GTCA and TCA is mathematically analyzed. A GPF-embedded algorithm of performing GTCA is then provided. The data exchange process and the performance with communication interruptions are discussed. As multiple contingencies are considered in GTCA, several approaches are proposed and discussed to reduce communication burdens and improve the computational efficiency. Plenty of numerical tests are performed in several systems to verify the theoretical analysis. With theoretical analysis and numerical verification, it is suggested that GTCA should be performed instead of TCA to avoid potential false alarms, especially in the condition that DNs are more frequently looped in the future smart grids.

This paper summarizes results of an assessment of future energy-technology strategies for China highlighting implications of different advanced energy-technology strategies that could allow China to continue its social and economic development while ensuring national energy-supply security and promoting environmental sustainability. The MARKAL energy-system modeling tool was used to build a model of China's energy system. Different scenarios for the evolution of energy supply and demand from 1995 to 2050 were explored, enabling insights to be gained into different energy development choices that China might make. The overall conclusion from the analysis is that there are plausible energy-technology strategies that would enable China to continue social and economic development through at least the next 50 years while ensuring security of energy supply and improved local and global environmental quality. Surprisingly, except for the case when very major reductions in carbon emissions are sought, the model predicts that such energy strategies would not involve significantly higher cumulative (1995–2050) discounted costs for the energy system than “business-as-usual” strategies. Furthermore, “business-as-usual” strategies, which were also modeled, will not enable China to meet all of its environmental and energy security goals. To meet these goals, an energy development strategy that relies on the introduction of advanced technologies is essential. To realize such strategies, policies are needed in China that will (1) encourage utilization of a wider variety of primary energy sources (especially biomass and wind) and clean secondary energy carriers (especially synthetic fluid fuels from coal and biomass), (2) support the development, demonstration and commercialization of radically new clean energy conversion technologies to ensure that they are commercially available beginning in the next 10 to 20 years, and (3) support aggressive end-use energy efficiency improvement measures.