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Having barely registered an increase at the beginning of the new millennium, during the economic upturn after 2009, there was significant growth in the mileage by registered motor vehicles in Germany, both in the case of utility vehicles and automobiles. Overall, in 2011, automobiles covered a higher mileage than ever before. Despite more efficient engines, this resulted in fuel consumption stagnating in recent years, although the long-term trend is one of decline. With an 85-percent share of total mileage, automobiles dominate our roads. This transport demand pattern is predominantly created by the needs of private households and it is currently in a state of flux when it comes to gender and age balance. Women's growing presence in education and on the labor market has, in turn, resulted in an increase in their car ownership and mileage. At the same time, men and women are maintaining a more mobile lifestyle by retaining their cars into older age. However, more limited car use has been observed, particularly among young people who, more frequently than previously, seem to be opting for the most suitable form of transport rather than traveling exclusively in their own vehicles.

Having barely registered an increase at the beginning of the new millennium, during the economic upturn after 2009, there was significant growth in the mileage by registered motor vehicles in Germany, both in the case of utility vehicles and automobiles. Overall, in 2011, automobiles covered a higher mileage than ever before. Despite more efficient engines, this resulted in fuel consumption stagnating in recent years, although the long-term trend is one of decline. With an 85-percent share of total mileage, automobiles dominate our roads. This transport demand pattern is predominantly created by the needs of private households and it is currently in a state of flux when it comes to gender and age balance. Women's growing presence in education and on the labor market has, in turn, resulted in an increase in their car ownership and mileage. At the same time, men and women are maintaining a more mobile lifestyle by retaining their cars into older age. However, more limited car use has been observed, particularly among young people who, more frequently than previously, seem to be opting for the most suitable form of transport rather than traveling exclusively in their own vehicles.

The increasing use of energy from renewable sources (RE) for the generation of heat and electricity in Germany has also led to an increasingly intensive debate on its advantages and disadvantages. The discussion mostly centers on the cost effects, because beneficial effects often are harder to quantify. Benefits comprise indirect effects or effects which lie far in the future. Scientific studies also frequently focus on single aspects, which cannot be aggregated easily, because they occur in different sectors and comprise technology system-wide effects, distributional effects or overall macro-economic effects. This study intends to answer questions refering to clear definitions of effects when increasing renewable energy, methods of adding and balancing the effects, the choice of methodological approach, support mechanisms, suitable time span or spatial system border. After a brief sketch of the basic methods applied, the contribution will present estimates for a wide range of effects. It closes with suggestions on possibilities how to add and balance the effects.

The increasing use of energy from renewable sources (RE) for the generation of heat and electricity in Germany has also led to an increasingly intensive debate on its advantages and disadvantages. The discussion mostly centers on the cost effects, because beneficial effects often are harder to quantify. Benefits comprise indirect effects or effects which lie far in the future. Scientific studies also frequently focus on single aspects, which cannot be aggregated easily, because they occur in different sectors and comprise technology system-wide effects, distributional effects or overall macro-economic effects. This study intends to answer questions refering to clear definitions of effects when increasing renewable energy, methods of adding and balancing the effects, the choice of methodological approach, support mechanisms, suitable time span or spatial system border. After a brief sketch of the basic methods applied, the contribution will present estimates for a wide range of effects. It closes with suggestions on possibilities how to add and balance the effects.

We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated using the optimality conditions and a large panel data set obtained from the FADN. Special attention is given to the problem of separating the effect of the covariance matrix from that of the quadratic PMP terms. The model is applied in a partial analysis of impacts of climate change in Germany by exogenously changing yield patterns.

We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated using the optimality conditions and a large panel data set obtained from the FADN. Special attention is given to the problem of separating the effect of the covariance matrix from that of the quadratic PMP terms. The model is applied in a partial analysis of impacts of climate change in Germany by exogenously changing yield patterns.

Biomass based energy production has attained a significant market share within the developing renewable energy market. In comparison to alternative renewable energy sources, biomass has several special features: it is not inexhaustible in the short term (limitation of arable land) and it is not only an energy source. Other usages like food or feed compete with energy production for this resource. A number of problems arise which have a direct impact on the fulfillment of policy objectives which are connected with its promotion. Primarily, the production of bioenergy has significant impacts on coupled biomass markets. Further, a change in production intensity or arable land use increases the use of nutrient loads and agro - chemicals. When evaluating renewable energy production, the wide range of political objectives has to be considered. Therefore, the focus of the overall study will be on three objective areas: promotion of the agricultural sector, environmental protection (reduction of GHG emissions) and maintenance of food supply security. The objective of this study is to combine an analysis of selected economic and ecological impacts of an increased biomass based energy production (primarily biofuels) under the assumption of European and international quantity targets by adjusting and applying the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis). This poster intends to display the methodical approach of the intended analysis.

Biomass based energy production has attained a significant market share within the developing renewable energy market. In comparison to alternative renewable energy sources, biomass has several special features: it is not inexhaustible in the short term (limitation of arable land) and it is not only an energy source. Other usages like food or feed compete with energy production for this resource. A number of problems arise which have a direct impact on the fulfillment of policy objectives which are connected with its promotion. Primarily, the production of bioenergy has significant impacts on coupled biomass markets. Further, a change in production intensity or arable land use increases the use of nutrient loads and agro - chemicals. When evaluating renewable energy production, the wide range of political objectives has to be considered. Therefore, the focus of the overall study will be on three objective areas: promotion of the agricultural sector, environmental protection (reduction of GHG emissions) and maintenance of food supply security. The objective of this study is to combine an analysis of selected economic and ecological impacts of an increased biomass based energy production (primarily biofuels) under the assumption of European and international quantity targets by adjusting and applying the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis). This poster intends to display the methodical approach of the intended analysis.

This paper contains an analysis of stylised natural gas and electricity supply sectors. Power plants operate either on natural gas or on a competing fuel – e.g. oil. The competing fuel is assumed to be traded at world market price whereas natural gas is sold by a national monopoly. The paper conducts a number of analyses using different market structures, ranging from perfect competition, over oligopolistic competition among power plants using natural gas only, to situations with both gas and oil and vertical integration in the natural gas part of the sector. The paper provides a number of results, some of which are quite surprising: (1) The natural gas monopoly price is only vaguely correlated with the oil price although the fuels are competing; (2) A merger between the gas supplier and a gas-fired power plant is likely to increase social welfare, and consumer surplus; and (3) Competition between fuels has more positive effect on social welfare than increased competition between gas-fired plants.