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Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

AbstractWe devise a methodology to predict failures in wind turbine drive‐train components and quantify its utility. The methodology consists of two main steps. The first step is the set up of a predictive model for shutdown events, which is able to raise an alarm in advance of the fault‐induced shutdown. The model is trained on data for shutdown events retrieved from the alarm log of an offshore wind farm. Here, it is assumed that the timely prediction of low‐severity events, typically caused by abnormal component operation, allows for an intervention that can prevent premature component failures. The prediction models are based on statistical classification using only supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. In the second step, the shutdown prediction model is combined with a cost model to provide an estimate of the benefits associated with implementing the predictive maintenance system. This is achieved by computing the maximum net utility attainable as a function of the model performance and efficiency of intervention carried out by the user. Results show that the system can be expected to be cost‐effective under specific conditions. A discussion about potential improvements of the approach is provided, along with suggestions for further research in this area.

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

Given the global energy and environmental situation, the European Union has been issuing directives with increasingly demanding requirements in term of the energy efficiency in buildings. The international competition of sustainable houses, Solar Decathlon Europe (SDE), is aligned with these European objectives. SDE houses are low energy solar buildings that must reach the near to zero energy houses’ goal. In the 2012 edition, in order to emphasize its significance, the Energy Efficiency Contest was added. SDE houses’ interior comfort, functioning and energy performance is monitored. The monitoring data can give an idea about the efficiency of the houses. However, a jury comprised by international experts is responsible for carrying out the houses energy efficiency evaluation. Passive strategies and houses services are analyzed. Additionally, the jury's assessment has been compared with the behavior of the houses during the monitoring period. Comparative studies make emphasis on the energy aspects, houses functioning and their interior comfort. Conclusions include thoughts related with the evaluation process, the results of the comparative studies and suggestions for the next competitions.

The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate) near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System) forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error) values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998) global to direct irradiance conversion scheme. Cloudy situations and especially thin ice cloud cases are forecasted much better with respect to biases and RMSE, but large biases are introduced in clear sky cases. When applying the MACC aerosol scheme to include aerosol direct effects, an improvement especially in DNI biases is found for cloud free cases as expected. However, a performance decrease is found for water cloud cases. It is assumed that this is caused by the lack of an explicit modelling of cloud-aerosol interactions, while other meteorological forcings for cloud processes like the temperature field are modified by the aerosols.

Abstract Building-based active envelopes play an important role to reduce active heating supplies. Several techniques are developed to enhance the energy performances of active building envelopes; meanwhile, numerous numerical and mathematical models are also developed to conduct the performance analysis of these techniques. In this paper, we propose a state-space model for solar active wall-based Phase Change Materials (PCM). The advantage of this method remains in its simplicity to provide details of internal nodes and input/output parameters. The low-cost calculation is a supplementary advantage versus a heavy numerical method. The proposed numerical model is applied for a multi-layer wall with PCM Wallboards (PCMW) embedded between indoor and outdoor environments. The results show the ability of the state-space model to estimate the thermal behavior of the system, as well as the thermal characteristics of embedding PCM in the internal face of the wall. It significantly contributes to stabilize the indoor temperature and to ensure the thermal comfort.

Abstract Hybrid energy storage is a multi-modal approach to store and supply different forms of energy (electricity, heat, cold) simultaneously. This is an important sector coupling approach and enables large scale flexibility for a deep decarbonization of energy systems. Two different proposed energy storages – power-to-heat-to-X energy storage (PHXES) and pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) – are investigated in detail in this work towards their potential towards a hybrid deployment. The techno-economic analysis includes thermodynamic flowsheet simulations and unified cost estimations based on the used equipment. It is shown that the main input data set (e.g. working fluid selection, turbomachinery efficiency, pinch temperatures) has a strong influence on storage roundtrip efficiency in the thermodynamic simulations, but also on storage costs. Cost decrease and performance increase can be conflicting development targets, and it is not clear if future energy systems rather require technologies with the highest storage efficiencies or if low cost is an important prerequisite. PHXES and three variants of PTES are implemented into a simplified energy system model of the city of Hamburg that comprises the electric load and heat demand of the district heating system. Two scenarios (fossil benchmark and 80% decarbonization) are used to select the technologies and their capacities that allow the most cost-effective energy supply solution by a linear-programming optimization procedure. Large scale renewable power generation and hybrid energy storage play the major roles in the decarbonization scenario. PHXES with a storage capacity of 69 GWh, hot water storage (3.6 GWh) and a battery system (430 MWh) are part of the cost-optimal solution. A cost sensitivity analysis shows that a total cost reduction of 60–80% is required for PTES to become competitive in this model scenario.