• Energy Research
• DE close
• EU close
• AU close
• Energies close

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.

Microalgae utilized for experiments are often not produced by the researchers that are doing experiments with them. The microalgae are made storable through thermal or freeze-drying by the producer. In an industrial scaled process, because of efficiency reasons, microalgae would not be dried, but processed directly. With that, the question is, if drying already could change the composition or structure that much, that a process scaled up from laboratory to productive scale with fresh microalgae would be less efficient or even would not work at all. The effect of freeze drying on the extraction behavior for the species Scenedesmus rubescens was investigated. It was obtained in freeze-dried condition and again was delivered in fresh state. The utilized microalgae were extracted with n-hexane, without and with different pretreatments (acidic hydrolysis and hydrothermal carbonization) to examine the differences in the yields. In conclusion, it was demonstrated that freeze drying harms the cell wall and therefore this process already influences the quantity of extracted lipids. Depending on the harshness of the treatment process for cell wall disruption this might influence the extracted yield when the algae are not freeze-dried. The quality of the extracted lipids does not change when freeze-dried.

Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a promising technology to convert wet biomass into carbon-rich materials. Until now, the chemical processes occurring and their influence on the product properties are not well understood. Therefore, a target-oriented production of materials with defined properties is difficult, if not impossible. Here, model compounds such as cellulose and lignin, as well as different definite biomasses such as straw and beech wood are converted by hydrothermal carbonization. Following this, thermogravimetic (TGA) and FTIR measurements are used to get information about chemical structure and thermal properties of the related hydrochars. Some of the isolated materials are thermally post-treated (490 °C and 700 °C) and analyzed. The results show that at “mild” HTC conversion, the cellulose part in a lignocellulose matrix is not completely carbonized and there is still cellulose present. Thermal post-treatment makes the properties of product materials more similar and shows complete carbonization with increase aromatic cross-linking, proven by TGA and FTIR results.

The energy transition in Germany takes part in decentral structures. With the ongoing integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) into the electricity supply system, supply-side is therefore becoming increasingly decentral and volatile due to the specific generation characteristics. A rather inflexible demand-side, on the other hand, increases the effort to gain the necessary equilibrium between generation and consumption. This paper discusses how consumer behaviour can be influenced by real-time pricing to align demand with generation. Therefore, a combination of two different approaches is used, (I) The Cellular Approach (CA) and (II) Agent Based Modelling (ABM). A model is set up considering a regional energy market, where regional electricity products can be traded peer-to-peer regarding each consumer’s preferences. The observation is made for a whole distribution grid including all types of consumers. The investigations show that energy purchases can be stimulated individually by a flexible pricing mechanism and met preferences. Moreover, benefits occur for the whole region and potentials arise to smooth the exchange balance to the superordinate grid level. Running the model for one entire year in a conservative generation scenario, hours of oversupply could be reduced by 18% and the consumption of green electricity generated regionally could be increased by over 125 MWh within the region itself, in comparison to a base scenario.

This article discusses the problems of exhaust gas emissions in the context of the possibility of their reduction through the use of fuels with hydrogen as an additive or hydrotreatment. These fuels, thanks to their properties, may be a suitable response to more and more demanding restrictions on exhaust emissions. The use of such fuels in reactivity controlled dual fuel engines (RCCI) is currently the most effective way of using them in internal combustion (IC) engines. Low-temperature combustion in this type of engine allows the use of all modern fuels intended for combustion engines with high thermal efficiency. Thermal efficiency higher than in classic engines allows for additional reduction of CO2 emissions. In this work, the research on this subject was compiled, and conclusions were drawn as to further possibilities of popularizing the use of these fuels in a wide spectrum of applications and the prospect of using them on a mass scale.

Biodiesel as an alternative to diesel fuel produced from vegetable oils or animal fats has attracted more and more attention because it is renewable and environmentally friendly. Compared to conventional diesel fuel, biodiesel has slightly lower performance in engine combustion due to the lower calorific value that leads to lower power generated. This study investigates the effect of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) as an additive to the rice bran methyl ester (RBME). Artificial neural network (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM) was used for predicting the calorific value. The interaction effects of parameters such as dosage of MWCNTs, size of MWCNTs and reaction time on the calorific value of RBME were studied. Comparison of RSM and ANN performance was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the average absolute deviation (AAD) showed that the ANN model had better performance (R2 = 0.9808, RMSE = 0.0164, MAPE = 0.0017, AAD = 0.173) compare to RSM (R2 = 0.9746, RMSE = 0.0170, MAPE = 0.0028, AAD = 0.279). The optimum predicted of RBME calorific value that is generated using the cuckoo search (CS) via lévy flight optimization algorithm is 41.78 (MJ/kg). The optimum value was obtained using 64 ppm of < 7 nm MWCNTs blending for 60 min. The predicted calorific value was validated experimentally as 41.05 MJ/kg. Furthermore, the experimental results have shown that the addition of MWCNTs was significantly increased the calorific value from 36.87 MJ/kg to 41.05 MJ/kg (11.6%). Also, the addition of MWCNTs decreased flashpoint (−18.3%) and acid value (−0.52%). As a conclusion, adding MWCNTs as an additive had improved the physicochemical properties characteristics of RBME. To our best knowledge, no research has yet been performed on the effect of multi-walled carbon nanotubes-additive in physicochemical property of rice brand methyl ester application so far.

Optimization-based design tools for energy systems often require a large set of parameter assumptions, e.g., about technology efficiencies and costs or the temporal availability of variable renewable energies. Understanding the influence of all these parameters on the computed energy system design via direct sensitivity analysis is not easy for human decision-makers, since they may become overloaded by the multitude of possible results. We thus propose transferring an approach from explaining complex neural networks, so-called locally interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), to this related problem. Specifically, we use variations of a small number of interpretable, high-level parameter features and sparse linear regression to obtain the most important local explanations for a selected design quantity. For a small bottom-up optimization model of a grid-connected building with photovoltaics, we derive intuitive explanations for the optimal battery capacity in terms of different cloud characteristics. For a larger application, namely a national model of the German energy transition until 2050, we relate path dependencies of the electrification of the heating and transport sector to the correlation measures between renewables and thermal loads. Compared to direct sensitivity analysis, the derived explanations are more compact and robust and thus more interpretable for human decision-makers.