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Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, individual countries have submitted greenhouse gas reduction proposals for the year 2020. This paper analyses the implications for emission reductions, the carbon price, and abatement costs of these submissions. The submissions of the Annex I (industrialised) countries are estimated to lead to a total reduction target of 12-18% below 1990 levels. The submissions of the seven major emerging economies are estimated to lead to an 11-14% reduction below baseline emissions, depending on international (financial) support. Global abatement costs in 2020 are estimated at about USD 60-100 billion, assuming that at least two-thirds of Annex I emission reduction targets need to be achieved domestically. The largest share of these costs are incurred by Annex I countries, although the costs as share of GDP are similar for Annex I as a group and the seven emerging economies as a group, even when assuming substantial international transfers from Annex I countries to the emerging economies to finance their abatement costs. If the restriction of achieving two-thirds of the emission reduction target domestically is abandoned, it would more than double the international carbon price and at the same time reduce global abatement costs by almost 25%.

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Abstract Given the need to reduce the CO2 emissions coming from the manufacturing sector, it is important, for planning purposes, to know which countries and which manufacturing sub-sectors have the greatest potential for reducing energy use. Using data from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, the authors estimate trends in global decoupling of energy use and manufacturing value added, compare energy-use intensity in six country groups and estimate the potential for reducing energy use and CO2 emissions under two scenarios and compare selected sub-sector energy intensity and estimate the potential for reducing energy use CO2 emissions. The comparison of energy intensities across country groups and among countries suggests that there still remains significant potential to reduce energy use and associated CO2 emissions. The analysis of four sub-sectors in developing and transition economies also shows similar but varied potential for reducing energy use and associated CO2 emissions.

SummaryThe German government has adopted a law that requires sewage plants to go beyond the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater and to promote recycling. We argue that there is no physical global short‐ or mid‐term phosphorus scarcity. However, we also argue that there are legitimate reasons for policies such as those of Germany, including: precaution as a way to ensure future generations’ long‐term supply security, promotion of technologies for closed‐loop economics in a promising stage of technology development, and decrease in the current supply risk with a new resource pool.

Abstract Rare earth permanent magnets are important components for modern (energy) technologies and are employed to reduce GHG emissions and combat climate change. The process of extracting these minerals from the ore has contentious economic, environmental and social implications. While the environmental impacts of their production have already been analyzed in several studies, the economic and the social perspective is still under-researched. The Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) approach employed in the present research explores whether there is a difference in social risks for rare earth permanent magnet production from three different rare earth ore production locations and the associated value chains. While one is located completely in China, another is composed of processes in Australia and Malaysia. The third process chain combines processes in the United States and Japan. The Product Social Impact Life Cycle Assessment (PSILCA) 2.0 database is used to assess the social implications. The analysis focuses on value chain actors, a stakeholder group of great interest to businesses but often underrepresented in S-LCA research. The impact categories describing this stakeholder group pertain to issues of social responsibility along the value chain, fair competition and corruption. Overall, the US value chain indicates the lowest level of social risk along the supply chain. However, in order to gain a deeper understanding of the social risks a sectoral and geographical analysis is conducted. Across all three cases, the mineral, fossil fuel and chemical sectors are shown to be problematic.

So far, various studies assessed global biomass potentials and came up with widely varying results. Existing potential estimates range from 0 EJ/a up to more than 1,550 EJ/a which corresponds to about three times the current global primary energy consumption. This paper provides an overview of the available research on bioenergy potentials and reviews the different assessments qualitative way with the objective to interpret previous research in an integrated way. In the context of this paper we understand bioenergy as energy from biomass sources including energy crops, residues, byproducts and wastes from agriculture, forestry, food production and waste management. In this review special attention was paid to the difference between residue and energy potentials, land availability estimates, and the geographical resolution of existing potential estimates. The majority of studies concentrate on energy crop potentials retrieved from surplus agricultural land and only few publications assess global potentials separated by different world regions. It results that land allocated to the exclusive production of energy crops varies from 0 to 7,000 ha, depending on land category and scenario assumptions. Only a small number of available potential assessments consider residue potentials as well as energy crop potentials from degraded land. Future energy crop potentials are assumed to vary in the mean from 200 to 600 EJ/yr. In contrast residue potentials are expected to contribute between 62 and 325 EJ/yr. The highest potentials are assigned to Asia, Africa and South America while Europe, North America and the Pacific region contribute minor parts to the global potential.

Nowadays, most countries of the world are implementing the transition to the low-carbon economy which implies the need to carry out a full-scale eco-modernization of the energy sector. Green energy may be identified as one of the core concerns of energy sector modernization as it allows a considerable decrease in emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Therefore, nuclear and renewable energy may become key areas of global energy development in the near future, which is also in agreement with circular economy concepts. However, public opinion (and other controversial visions/aspects) is one of the barriers to their development. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between attitudes towards nuclear and renewable energy in two countries: a EU country (Italy) and a non-EU country (Russia), considering the level of their development. The authors conducted a survey among residents regarding their attitude towards nuclear and renewable energy, as well as their attitude to the present energy policy. The cluster analysis technique was used to analyze the results. The obtained results confirmed the dependence between the level of development of nuclear and renewable energy and the public attitude towards it. The national energy policy also might influence public opinion on the development of nuclear or renewable energy. The authors identified public attitude as one of the key factors in the development of energy and the achievement of environmental and social sustainability.

AbstractIran has experienced a drastic increase in water scarcity in the last decades. The main driver has been the substantial unsustainable water consumption of the agricultural sector. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of Iran’s hydrometeorological water availability, land cover, and vegetation growth and evaluates their interrelations with a special focus on agricultural vegetation developments. It analyzes globally available reanalysis climate data and satellite time series data and products, allowing a country-wide investigation of recent 20+ years at detailed spatial and temporal scales. The results reveal a wide-spread agricultural expansion (27,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ) and a significant cultivation intensification (48,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ). At the same time, we observe a substantial decline in total water storage that is not represented by a decrease of meteorological water input, confirming an unsustainable use of groundwater mainly for agricultural irrigation. As consequence of water scarcity, we identify agricultural areas with a loss or reduction of vegetation growth (10,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ), especially in irrigated agricultural areas under (hyper-)arid conditions. In Iran’s natural biomes, the results show declining trends in vegetation growth and land cover degradation from sparse vegetation to barren land in 40,000 km$$^2$$ 2 , mainly along the western plains and foothills of the Zagros Mountains, and at the same time wide-spread greening trends, particularly in regions of higher altitudes. Overall, the findings provide detailed insights in vegetation-related causes and consequences of Iran’s anthropogenic drought and can support sustainable management plans for Iran or other semi-arid regions worldwide, often facing similar conditions.

Since the 1970s but with greater intensity in the 1980s, strong, social, economic, and cultural transformations have led to the post-Fordist or post-productivist countryside determining what researchers identify as “rural restructuring” [...]