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  • Energy Research
  • biological sciences
  • 13. Climate action
  • 14. Life underwater
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  • Authors: orcid Christian C. Voigt;
    Christian C. Voigt
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Christian C. Voigt in OpenAIRE
    orcid Tanja M. Straka;
    Tanja M. Straka
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Tanja M. Straka in OpenAIRE
    Marcus Fritze;

    Although renewable energy production is widely accepted as clean, it is not necessarily environmental neutral since, for example, wind turbines kill large numbers of airborne animals such as bats. Consequently, stakeholders involved in the planning and operation of wind turbines are often in conflict when trying to reconcile both goals, namely, promoting wind energy production and protecting bats. We report the responses to an online questionnaire sent out to stakeholders to assess this conflict. More than 80% of stakeholders acknowledged the conflict between bat conservation and wind energy production; yet, the majority was confident about solutions and all desired an ecologically sustainable energy transition. All groups, except members of the wind energy sector, disagreed with the statements that wind energy production is of higher priority than biodiversity protection and that global warming is more critical than the biodiversity crisis. All groups agreed that more measures have to be taken to make wind energy production ecologically sustainable and that the society should be included to pay for the implementation of these measures. All stakeholders except for members of the wind energy sector agreed on that revenue losses from wind energy production and delays in the transition process should be acceptable to resolve the green–green dilemma. Among offered choices, most stakeholders suggested engaging in more research, improving the efficiency of energy use and implementing context dependent cut-in speed during wind turbine operation. The suggestion to weaken the legal protection of wildlife species was dismissed by all, underlining the consensus to protect biodiversity.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid David R. Roberts;
    David R. Roberts
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    David R. Roberts in OpenAIRE
    David R. Roberts; orcid Julia Michalak;
    Julia Michalak
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Julia Michalak in OpenAIRE
    Joshua J. Lawler; +1 Authors

    AbstractAs evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present‐day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent varied depending on the analog threshold, dispersal distance, and climate projection. However, in all cases refugia were concentrated at high elevations and in topographically complex regions. Refugia identified using different climate projections were largely nested, suggesting that identified refugia were relatively robust to climate‐projection selection. Existing conservation areas cover approximately 10% of North America and yet protected up to 25% of identified refugia, indicating that protected areas disproportionately include refugia. Refugia located at lower latitudes (≤40°N) and slightly lower elevations (approximately 2500 m) were more likely to be unprotected. Based on our results, a 23% expansion of the protected‐area network would be sufficient to protect the refugia present under all 3 climate projections we explored. We believe these refugia are high conservation priorities due to their potential to harbor rare species in the future. However, these locations are simultaneously highly vulnerable to climate change over the long term. These refugia contracted substantially between the 2050s and the 2080s, which supports the idea that the pace of climate change will strongly determine the availability and effectiveness of refugia for protecting today's biodiversity.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Conservation Biologyarrow_drop_down
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    Conservation Biology
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC ND
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    Conservation Biology
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Conservation Biologyarrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Conservation Biology
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY NC ND
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Conservation Biology
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Johannes Heinze;
    Johannes Heinze
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Johannes Heinze in OpenAIRE
    orcid Alexander Wacker;
    Alexander Wacker
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Alexander Wacker in OpenAIRE
    orcid Andrew Kulmatiski;
    Andrew Kulmatiski
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Andrew Kulmatiski in OpenAIRE

    AbstractRelatively little is known about how plant–soil feedbacks (PSFs) may affect plant growth in field conditions where factors such as herbivory may be important. Using a potted experiment in a grassland, we measured PSFs with and without aboveground insect herbivory for 20 plant species. We then compared PSF values to plant landscape abundance. Aboveground herbivory had a large negative effect on PSF values. For 15 of 20 species, PSFs were more negative with herbivory than without. This occurred because plant biomass on “home” soils was smaller with herbivory than without. PSF values with herbivory were correlated with plant landscape abundance, whereas PSF values without herbivory were not. Shoot nitrogen concentrations suggested that plants create soils that increase nitrogen uptake, but that greater shoot nitrogen values increase herbivory and that the net effect of positive PSF and greater aboveground herbivory is less aboveground biomass. Results provided clear evidence that PSFs alone have limited power in explaining species abundances and that herbivory has stronger effects on plant biomass and growth on the landscape. Our results provide a potential explanation for observed differences between greenhouse and field PSF experiments and suggest that PSF experiments need to consider important biotic interactions, like aboveground herbivory, particularly when the goal of PSF research is to understand plant growth in field conditions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Utah State Universit...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Ecology
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Ecology
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    DigitalCommons@USU
    Other literature type . 2020
    Data sources: DigitalCommons@USU
    Ecology
    Article . 2021
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Utah State Universit...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Ecology
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Ecology
      Article
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Other literature type . 2020
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      Ecology
      Article . 2021
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Anna L. Jacobsen;
    Anna L. Jacobsen
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Anna L. Jacobsen in OpenAIRE
    orcid Mark Westoby;
    Mark Westoby
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Mark Westoby in OpenAIRE
    Jarmila Pittermann; Amy E. Zanne; +22 Authors

    Shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity. One primary cause of productivity loss and plant mortality during drought is hydraulic failure. Drought stress creates trapped gas emboli in the water transport system, which reduces the ability of plants to supply water to leaves for photosynthetic gas exchange and can ultimately result in desiccation and mortality. At present we lack a clear picture of how thresholds to hydraulic failure vary across a broad range of species and environments, despite many individual experiments. Here we draw together published and unpublished data on the vulnerability of the transport system to drought-induced embolism for a large number of woody species, with a view to examining the likely consequences of climate change for forest biomes. We show that 70% of 226 forest species from 81 sites worldwide operate with narrow (<1 megapascal) hydraulic safety margins against injurious levels of drought stress and therefore potentially face long-term reductions in productivity and survival if temperature and aridity increase as predicted for many regions across the globe. Safety margins are largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. These findings provide insight into why drought-induced forest decline is occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests not normally considered at drought risk.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Naturearrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Nature
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    CONICET Digital
    Article . 2012
    License: CC BY NC SA
    Data sources: CONICET Digital
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    Nature
    Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Hal
    Article . 2012
    Data sources: Hal
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    HAL INRAE
    Article . 2012
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    Nature
    Article . 2013
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  • image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Authors: orcid Marta Reyes;
    Marta Reyes
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    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Marta Reyes in OpenAIRE
    Thomas J. Mozder; Thomas J. Mozder; Mark O. Gessner; +1 Authors

    AbstractIntraspecific variation in genotypically determined traits can influence ecosystem processes. Therefore, the impact of climate change on ecosystems may depend, in part, on the distribution of plant genotypes. Here we experimentally assess effects of climate warming and excess nitrogen supply on litter decomposition using 12 genotypes of a cosmopolitan foundation species collected across a 2100 km latitudinal gradient and grown in a common garden. Genotypically determined litter‐chemistry traits varied substantially within and among geographic regions, which strongly affected decomposition and the magnitude of warming effects, as warming accelerated litter mass loss of high‐nutrient, but not low‐nutrient, genotypes. Although increased nitrogen supply alone had no effect on decomposition, it strongly accelerated litter mass loss of all genotypes when combined with warming. Rates of microbial respiration associated with the leaf litter showed nearly identical responses as litter mass loss. These results highlight the importance of interactive effects of environmental factors and suggest that loss or gain of genetic variation associated with key phenotypic traits can buffer, or exacerbate, the impact of global change on ecosystem process rates in the future.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Global Change Biolog...arrow_drop_down
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Global Change Biolog...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Global Change Biology
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Daniel Moore; Vanessa Bach; Matthias Finkbeiner; Theresa Honkomp; +4 Authors

    Since the Paris Agreement entered into force, climate neutrality and associated compensation schemes are even more on the agenda of politics and companies. Challenges of existing offsetting schemes include the rather theoretical saving scenario and the limited scope of considered impacts. To address some of these limitations, this paper proposes the Circular Ecosystem Compensation (CEC) approach based on monetization of LCA results and Ecosystem Valuation. CEC consists of six steps: i) carrying out a life cycle assessment, ii) reducing the environmental impacts, iii) determining environmental costs applying monetization methods, iv) deriving the environmental value based on restoration costs methods, v) implementing the ecological restoration of ecosystems and vi) monitoring of the renaturation measures. Thus, CEC allows to offset a broad set of environmental impacts beyond climate change (e.g., acidification, eutrophication, land use, water use) in a real ecosystem by renaturation of degraded ecosystems. Environmental burdens and environmental benefits are balanced on a monetary basis, as the renaturation measures are monetized and used to compensate the monetized LCA results, e.g., of a product, organization or individual. In a case study, the implementation of the approach is presented to show the practical implementation of the CEC. The challenges of CEC include the integration of further impact categories, the availability of up-to-date and reliable monetization methods, the asynchrony and time-lag of the compensation from an ecosystem and biodiversity perspective and the proof of cost-efficiency of the renaturation measures. It is further discussed, if CEC can be a step beyond “climate neutrality” towards “environmental neutrality”. The proposed approach should be further tested and is intended to foster progress in more comprehensive and robust offsetting of environmental impacts beyond climate change.

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    Journal of Environmental Management
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.14279/de...
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
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      Journal of Environmental Management
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.14279/de...
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    Authors: orcid Kopprio, Germán Adolfo;
    Kopprio, Germán Adolfo
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    Biancalana, Florencia; orcid Fricke, Anna;
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    Fricke, Anna in OpenAIRE
    Garzon Cardona, John Edison; +2 Authors

    The aims of this work are to provide an overview of the current stresses of estuaries in Argentina and to propose adaptation strategies from an ecohydrological approach. Several Argentinian estuaries are impacted by pollutants, derived mainly from sewage discharge and agricultural or industrial activities. Anthropogenic impacts are expected to rise with increasing human population. Climate-driven warmer temperature and hydrological changes will alter stratification, residence time, oxygen content, salinity, pollutant distribution, organism physiology and ecology, and nutrient dynamics. Good water quality is essential in enhancing estuarine ecological resilience to disturbances brought on by global change. The preservation, restoration, and creation of wetlands will help to protect the coast from erosion, increase sediment accretion rates, and improve water quality by removing excess nutrients and pollutants. The capacity of hydrologic basin ecosystems to absorb human and natural impacts can be improved through holistic management, which should consider social vulnerability in complex human-natural systems.

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    CONICET Digital
    Article . 2015
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    Marine Pollution Bulletin
    Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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      Marine Pollution Bulletin
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    Authors: orcid M. Hoffmann;
    M. Hoffmann
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    M. Hoffmann in OpenAIRE
    C. Hilton Taylor; A. Angulo; M. Bohm; +170 Authors

    Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

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    CORE
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    Article . 2010
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    Science
    Article . 2010 . Peer-reviewed
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    HKU Scholars Hub
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    Authors: Franziska Günter; Klaus Fischer; Michael Klockmann;

    AbstractHeat tolerance is a trait of paramount ecological importance and may determine a species' ability to cope with ongoing climate change. Although critical thermal limits have consequently received substantial attention in recent years, their potential variation throughout ontogeny remained largely neglected. We investigate whether such neglect may bias conclusions regarding a species' sensitivity to climate change. Using a tropical butterfly, we found that developmental stages clearly differed in heat tolerance. It was highest in pupae followed by larvae, adults and finally eggs and hatchlings. Strikingly, most of the variation found in thermal tolerance was explained by differences in body mass, which may thus impose a severe constraint on adaptive variation in stress tolerance. Furthermore, temperature acclimation was beneficial by increasing heat knock‐down time and therefore immediate survival under heat stress, but it affected reproduction negatively. Extreme temperatures strongly reduced survival and subsequent reproductive success even in our highly plastic model organism, exemplifying the potentially dramatic impact of extreme weather events on biodiversity. We argue that predictions regarding a species' fate under changing environmental conditions should consider variation in thermal tolerance throughout ontogeny, variation in body mass and acclimation responses as important predictors of stress tolerance.

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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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      Global Change Biology
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    Authors: Julia Reinhardt; orcid bw Stefan Liersch;
    Stefan Liersch
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    Mohamed Arbi Abdeladhim; Mori Diallo; +9 Authors

    Los escenarios se han convertido en una herramienta clave para apoyar la investigación de sostenibilidad sobre el cambio regional y global. En este estudio evaluamos cuatro evaluaciones de escenarios regionales: primero, para explorar una serie de desafíos de investigación relacionados con la ciencia de la sostenibilidad y, segundo, para contribuir a la investigación de sostenibilidad en los estudios de casos específicos. Los cuatro estudios de casos utilizaron enfoques de escenarios comúnmente aplicados que son (i) un enfoque de historia y simulación con participación de las partes interesadas en la cuenca hidrográfica de Oum Zessar, Túnez, (ii) una exploración participativa de escenarios en la región de Rwenzori, Uganda, (iii) un estudio de prepolíticas basado en modelos en el Delta Interior del Níger, Malí, y (iv) un análisis de escenarios basado en modelos de acoplamiento en la cuenca alta de Thukela, Sudáfrica. Las evaluaciones de escenarios se evalúan frente a un conjunto de desafíos conocidos en la ciencia de la sostenibilidad, con cada desafío representado por dos indicadores, complementados por una encuesta realizada sobre la percepción de las evaluaciones de escenarios dentro de las regiones de estudio de caso. Los resultados muestran que todos los tipos de evaluaciones de escenarios abordan muchos desafíos de sostenibilidad, pero que los más complejos basados en la historia y la simulación y el acoplamiento de modelos son: el más completo. El estudio destaca la necesidad de investigar los cambios abruptos del sistema, así como los factores gubernamentales y políticos como fuentes importantes de incertidumbre. Para un análisis en profundidad de estos problemas, se sugiere el uso de enfoques cualitativos y una participación activa de las partes interesadas locales. Se recomienda estudiar los umbrales ecológicos a escala regional para apoyar la investigación sobre la sostenibilidad regional. La evaluación de los procesos y resultados de los escenarios por parte de los investigadores locales indica que las evaluaciones de escenarios más transparentes son las más útiles. Las evaluaciones de escenarios centradas, directas e iterativas pueden ser muy relevantes al aportar información a los problemas de sostenibilidad seleccionados. Les scénarios sont devenus un outil clé pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité des changements régionaux et mondiaux. Dans cette étude, nous évaluons quatre évaluations de scénarios régionaux : premièrement, explorer un certain nombre de défis de recherche liés à la science de la durabilité et, deuxièmement, contribuer à la recherche sur la durabilité dans les études de cas spécifiques. Les quatre études de cas ont utilisé des approches de scénarios couramment appliquées qui sont (i) une approche d'histoire et de simulation avec la participation des parties prenantes dans le bassin versant d'Oum Zessar, en Tunisie, (ii) une exploration participative de scénarios dans la région de Rwenzori, en Ouganda, (iii) une étude pré-politique basée sur des modèles dans le delta intérieur du Niger, au Mali, et (iv) une analyse de scénarios basée sur le couplage de modèles dans le bassin supérieur de Thukela, en Afrique du Sud. Les évaluations de scénarios sont évaluées par rapport à un ensemble de défis connus en science de la durabilité, chaque défi étant représenté par deux indicateurs, complétés par une enquête réalisée sur la perception des évaluations de scénarios dans les régions d'étude de cas. Les résultats montrent que tous les types d'évaluations de scénarios répondent à de nombreux défis de durabilité, mais que les plus complexes basés sur l'histoire et la simulation et le couplage de modèles sont la plus complète. L'étude souligne la nécessité d'enquêter sur les changements brusques du système ainsi que sur les facteurs gouvernementaux et politiques en tant que sources importantes d'incertitude. Pour une analyse approfondie de ces questions, l'utilisation d'approches qualitatives et un engagement actif des parties prenantes locales sont suggérés. L'étude des seuils écologiques à l'échelle régionale est recommandée pour soutenir la recherche sur la durabilité régionale. L'évaluation des processus et des résultats des scénarios par les chercheurs locaux indique que les évaluations de scénarios les plus transparentes sont les plus utiles. Des évaluations de scénarios ciblées, simples, mais itératives peuvent être très pertinentes en fournissant des informations à des problèmes de durabilité sélectionnés. Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change.In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies.The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa.The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions.The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive.The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty.For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested.Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability.The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful.Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems. أصبحت السيناريوهات أداة رئيسية لدعم أبحاث الاستدامة حول التغيير الإقليمي والعالمي. في هذه الدراسة، نقوم بتقييم أربعة تقييمات للسيناريوهات الإقليمية: أولاً، لاستكشاف عدد من تحديات البحث المتعلقة بعلوم الاستدامة، وثانياً، للمساهمة في أبحاث الاستدامة في دراسات الحالة المحددة. استخدمت دراسات الحالة الأربع مناهج السيناريوهات المطبقة بشكل شائع والتي هي (1) نهج القصة والمحاكاة بمشاركة أصحاب المصلحة في مستجمعات مياه أم زسار، تونس، (2) استكشاف سيناريو تشاركي في منطقة روينزوري، أوغندا، (3) دراسة سياسة مسبقة قائمة على نموذج في دلتا النيجر الداخلية، مالي، و (4) تحليل سيناريو قائم على نموذج الاقتران في حوض ثوكيلا العلوي، جنوب أفريقيا. يتم تقييم تقييمات السيناريو مقابل مجموعة من التحديات المعروفة في علم الاستدامة، مع تمثيل كل تحدٍ بمؤشرين، يكملهما مسح تم إجراؤه على تصور تقييمات السيناريو داخل مناطق دراسة الحالة. تظهر النتائج أن جميع أنواع تقييمات السيناريو تعالج العديد من تحديات الاستدامة، ولكن التحديات الأكثر تعقيدًا القائمة على القصة والمحاكاة واقتران النموذج هي الأكثر شمولاً. تسلط الدراسة الضوء على الحاجة إلى التحقيق في التغييرات المفاجئة في النظام وكذلك العوامل الحكومية والسياسية كمصادر مهمة لعدم اليقين. للحصول على تحليل متعمق لهذه القضايا، يُقترح استخدام النهج النوعية والمشاركة النشطة لأصحاب المصلحة المحليين. يوصى بدراسة العتبات البيئية على المستوى الإقليمي لدعم البحوث المتعلقة بالاستدامة الإقليمية. يشير تقييم عمليات ونتائج السيناريو من قبل الباحثين المحليين إلى أن تقييمات السيناريو الأكثر شفافية هي الأكثر فائدة. يمكن أن تكون تقييمات السيناريو المركزة والمباشرة والمتكررة ذات صلة كبيرة من خلال المساهمة بالمعلومات في مشاكل الاستدامة المختارة.

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    Ecology and Society
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Ecology and Society
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Publication Database...arrow_drop_down
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/mk...
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.25932/pu...
      Other literature type . 2020
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/je...
      Other literature type . 2018
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