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AbstractAimsTo examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example.MethodsFour methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology.Results and ConclusionsWhile all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

In the 1990s, an uncommonly high percentage of glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1) negative bladder cancer cases (70%) was reported in the greater Dortmund area. The question arose as to whether this uncommonly high percentage of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer cases was due to environmental and/or occupational exposure decades ago. Thus, 15 years later, another study on bladder cancer was performed in the same area after the coal, iron, and steel industries had finally closed in the 1990s. In total 196 bladder cancer patients from the St.-Josefs-Hospital Dortmund-Hörde and 235 controls with benign urological diseases were assessed by questionnaire and genotyped for GSTM1, glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1), and the N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) tag SNP rs1495741. The frequency of the GSTM1 negative genotype was 52% in bladder cancer cases and thus lower compared to a previous study performed from 1992 to 1995 in the same area (70%). NAT2 genotypes were distributed equally among cases and controls (63% slow acetylators). Fewer GSTT1 negative genotypes were present in cases (17%) than in controls (20%).

AbstractDengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

Microglial activation contributes to the neuropathology associated with chronic alcohol exposure and withdrawal, including the expression of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory genes. In the current study, we examined the transcriptome of primary rat microglial cells following incubation with alcohol alone, or alcohol together with a robust inflammatory stimulus.Primary microglia were prepared from mixed rat glial cultures. Cells were incubated with 75 mM ethanol alone or with proinflammatory cytokines ("TII": IL1β, IFNγ, and TNFα). Isolated mRNA was used for RNAseq analysis and qPCR. Effects of alcohol on phagocytosis were determined by uptake of oligomeric amyloid beta.Alcohol induced nitrite production in control cells and increased nitrite production in cells co-treated with TII. RNAseq analysis of microglia exposed for 24 h to alcohol identified 312 differentially expressed mRNAs ("Alc-DEs"), with changes confirmed by qPCR analysis. Gene ontology analysis identified phagosome as one of the highest-ranking KEGG pathways including transcripts regulating phagocytosis. Alcohol also increased several complement-related mRNAs that have roles in phagocytosis, including C1qa, b, and c; C3; and C3aR1. RNAseq analysis identified over 3000 differentially expressed mRNAs in microglia following overnight incubation with TII; and comparison to the group of Alc-DEs revealed 87 mRNAs modulated by alcohol but not by TII, including C1qa, b, and c. Consistent with observed changes in phagocytosis-related mRNAs, the uptake of amyloid beta1-42, by primary microglia, was reduced by alcohol.Our results define alterations that occur to microglial gene expression following alcohol exposure and suggest that alcohol effects on phagocytosis could contribute to the development of Alzheimer's disease.

Chronic or persistent fatigue is a common, debilitating symptom of several diseases. Persistent fatigue has been associated with low-grade inflammation in several models of fatigue, including cancer-related fatigue and chronic fatigue syndrome. However, it is unclear how low-grade inflammation leads to the experience of fatigue. We here propose a model of an imbalance in energy availability and energy expenditure as a consequence of low-grade inflammation. In this narrative review, we discuss how chronic low-grade inflammation can lead to reduced cellular-energy availability. Low-grade inflammation induces a metabolic switch from energy-efficient oxidative phosphorylation to fast-acting, but less efficient, aerobic glycolytic energy production; increases reactive oxygen species; and reduces insulin sensitivity. These effects result in reduced glucose availability and, thereby, reduced cellular energy. In addition, emerging evidence suggests that chronic low-grade inflammation is associated with increased willingness to exert effort under specific circumstances. Circadian-rhythm changes and sleep disturbances might mediate the effects of inflammation on cellular-energy availability and non-adaptive energy expenditure. In the second part of the review, we present evidence for these metabolic pathways in models of persistent fatigue, focusing on chronic fatigue syndrome and cancer-related fatigue. Most evidence for reduced cellular-energy availability in relation to fatigue comes from studies on chronic fatigue syndrome. While the mechanistic evidence from the cancer-related fatigue literature is still limited, the sparse results point to reduced cellular-energy availability as well. There is also mounting evidence that behavioral-energy expenditure exceeds the reduced cellular-energy availability in patients with persistent fatigue. This suggests that an inability to adjust energy expenditure to available resources might be one mechanism underlying persistent fatigue.

(Uploaded by Plazi for the Bat Literature Project) Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.