• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close
• DE close
• Energy Policy close

To fulfill the Paris Agreement commitments and stimulated by an unprecedented amount of public resources put in place to recover from the COVID-induced recession, European governments have recently announced sizable green policy plans. In this paper, we examine the behavior of green and brown portfolios around green policy- related announcements (GPAs) made by major European governments in 2020 via a standard event study analysis and the use of returns of stocks listed in the “STOXX 100 All Europe”. Our main empirical findings indicate the presence of positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) both in the green and brown sectors following GPAs. However, the estimated positive sentiment effect is stronger in the former sector. A size effect in terms of the amount of resources announced to be allocated for a specific category of policy is also observed. We f ind that the observed positive sentiment is mainly driven by announcements on climate change mitigation- related policies, which account for 70% of the total allocated funds. At the sector level, positive and significant CARs due to GPAs are found in the (i) energy, (ii) financial and (iii) industrial sectors. At the country level, GPAs are found to drive a significant positive sentiment effect in the following European countries: Switzerland, Spain, UK, Ireland and Italy. Sector- and country-level analyses confirm the presence of larger benefits from GPAs among more sustainable portfolios.

Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing studies assessing the effects of oil prices on economic activity typically assume constant or stable threshold values. However, recent evidence suggests that this restrictive assumption may not accurately capture the dynamic nature of these relationships. We address this issue by adopting a more realistic framework that allows for the possibility that oil prices will have a time-varying effect on economic activity. We also employ the innovative time-varying threshold regression kink model of Yang and Su (2018). Our analysis focuses on a sample of 20 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries during the period 1995Q1 to 2023Q2. The findings of our investigation provide compelling evidence to support the existence of time-varying threshold levels in the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity for most countries in our sample. Notably, our research unveils a substantial heterogeneity in the oil price thresholds across the investigated countries, thereby challenging the notion of a universal threshold applicable to all.

A central issue that is discussed in climate policy is the fear of owners of stocks of fossil hydrocarbon deposits that high CO2 taxes and bans on the combustion use of hydrocarbons will turn their stocks into stranded assets. They might react by extracting and selling their reserves today: a rush to burn results. We show how the stranded-asset problem could be avoided or strongly moderated. We analyze a simple intertemporal equilibrium with a given stock of fossil hydrocarbons. In this framework the following properties hold: For a climate-neutral solution to the rush-to-burn problem it is important to maintain existing and generate new markets for climate-neutral products from fossil hydrocarbons in the future, where we give examples for such products. Subsidies for such products (or for their innovation) reduce the rush-to-burn problem. In contrast, the creation of substitutes for fossil hydrocarbon-based climate-neutral products, or subsidies for such products reduce the market for products made from fossil hydrocarbons. This can aggravate the stranded-assets problem and thus can have a climate-damaging effect.