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Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

AbstractWe devise a methodology to predict failures in wind turbine drive‐train components and quantify its utility. The methodology consists of two main steps. The first step is the set up of a predictive model for shutdown events, which is able to raise an alarm in advance of the fault‐induced shutdown. The model is trained on data for shutdown events retrieved from the alarm log of an offshore wind farm. Here, it is assumed that the timely prediction of low‐severity events, typically caused by abnormal component operation, allows for an intervention that can prevent premature component failures. The prediction models are based on statistical classification using only supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data. In the second step, the shutdown prediction model is combined with a cost model to provide an estimate of the benefits associated with implementing the predictive maintenance system. This is achieved by computing the maximum net utility attainable as a function of the model performance and efficiency of intervention carried out by the user. Results show that the system can be expected to be cost‐effective under specific conditions. A discussion about potential improvements of the approach is provided, along with suggestions for further research in this area.

Current energy market designs and pricing schemes fail to give investors the appropriate market signals. In particular, energy prices are not high enough to attract investors to build new or maintain existing power capacity. In this paper we propose a method to compute second-best Pareto optimal equilibrium prices for any market exhibiting non-convexities and, based on this result, an energy market design able to restore the correct energy price signals for supply investors.

Direct Load Control (DLC) is an effective instrument for achieving a guaranteed load curtailment. Unfortunately, if a customer considers that personal discomfort outweighs money savings after DLC shutting down of home appliances, DLC solution can be rejected. This paper proposes the way to remediate customer comfort concerns by pre-storing additional energy in electric loads before their disconnection from the grid. We take electric tank water heaters as an illustrative example of residential loads with storage. To illuminate our approach we first show how to balance electric consumption for pre-storing with user thermal discomfort for a single water heater. Then, we illustrate how the approach can be scaled-up to a multiple-boiler scenario, when ten remotely controlled boilers act next to fifty non-controlled boilers. The simulations for the latter case show that the expected user thermal discomfort can be significantly reduced at the cost of a reasonable increase of electricity demand preceding DLC event.

Abstract Global hydropower growth continues to accelerate with 25% of total capacity installed in just the last 10 years. This accelerating expansion and the important storage facility hydropower means it is increasingly important to understand the reasons for operational failures. This is a challenge because the major reason for failures involves the complex interaction of hydraulic, mechanical and electric subsystems. Historically, reliability modelling has been split in two directions, focusing on different sub-systems, and has not yet been unified. Here these approaches are unified with a novel expression of unbalanced forces. This model with operational data are validated and the important modes of oscillation in the shaft are identified. Finally, the mechanism of the first-order oscillation mode exciting a second-order mode is presented. This integrated and accurate mathematical model is a major advance in the diagnosis and prediction of failures in hydropower operation.

The unpredictable nature of wind energy makes its integration to the electric grid highly challenging. However, these challenges can be addressed by incorporating storage devices (batteries) in the system. We perform an overall assessment of a single domestic power system with a wind turbine supported by an energy storage device. The aim is to investigate the best operation mode of the storage device such that the occurrence of large power spills can be minimized. For estimating the small probability of large power spills, we use the splitting technique for rare-event simulations. An appropriate Importance Function for splitting is formulated such that it reduces the work-load of the probability estimator as compared to the conventional Crude Monte Carlo probability estimator. Simulation results show that the ramp constraints imposed on the charging/discharging rate of the storage device plays a pivotal role in mitigating large power spills. It is observed that by employing a new charging strategy for the storage device large power spills can be minimized further. There exists a trade-off between reducing the large power spills versus reducing the average power spills.

Dataset (partial) for the journal article Torbaghan, Shahab Shariat, et al. "Designing day-ahead multi-carrier markets for flexibility: Models and clearing algorithms." Applied Energy 285 (2021): 116390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116390 Historical electricity bids obtained from the website of GME, the Italian power exchange, cannot be redistributed and are not included in the present dataset.

Biomass is considered as a potential source of renewable energy. One of the major problems for biomass gasification is the presence of tar in the product gas. We are investigating catalytic behaviour of olivine as a prospective bed additive for biomass gasifiers for tar removal. In the present paper, the pretreatment of olivine is investigated to improve its activity. Pretreatment method includes heating olivine at 900 °C in the presence of air for different treatment times. The catalytic activity of olivine is investigated via steam-reforming reaction of naphthalene as model biomass tar compound. Improvement in naphthalene conversion of around 30% is observed with 1 h of pretreatment. Also effect of pretreatment time is investigated. With increasing pretreatment time, conversion increases; more than 80% naphthalene conversion is observed with 10 h of pretreatment time for olivine. Both steam and dry reforming reaction of naphthalene forms more than 50% gaseous products over 10 h pretreated olivine. Besides the gaseous products and light tars, polymerization reactions occur producing higher tars in small quantity. Naphthalene conversion under syngas mixture is somewhat lower than that of only in steam and CO2. Apparent activation energy of 187 kJ mol-1 is determined for 10 h pretreated olivine under gasification-gas mixture.