• Energy Research
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AbstractDecarbonising the energy system requires high shares of variable renewable generation and sector coupling like power to heat. In addition to heat supply, heat pumps can be used in future energy systems to provide flexibility to the electricity system by using the thermal storage potential of the building stock and buffer tanks to shift electricity demand to hours of high renewable electricity production. Bridging the gap between two methodological approaches, we coupled a detailed building technology operation model and the open-source energy system model Balmorel to evaluate the flexibility potential that decentral heat pumps can provide to the electricity system. Austria in the year 2030 serves as an example of a 100% renewable-based electricity system (at an annual national balance). Results show that system benefits from heat pump flexibility are relatively limited in extent and concentrated on short-term flexibility. Flexible heat pumps reduce system cost, CO2 emissions, and photovoltaics and wind curtailment in all scenarios. The amount of electricity shifted in the assessed standard flexibility scenario is 194 GWhel and accounts for about 20% of the available flexible heat pump electricity demand. A comparison of different modelling approaches and a deterministic sensitivity analysis of key input parameters complement the modelling. The most important input parameters impacting heat pump flexibility are the flexible capacity (determined by installed capacity and share of control), shifting time limitations, and cost assumptions for the flexibility provided. Heat pump flexibility contributes more to increasing low residual loads (up to 22% in the assessed scenarios) than decreasing residual load peaks. Wind power integration benefits more from heat pump flexibility than photovoltaics because of the temporal correlation between heat demand and wind generation.

Abstract Levee systems are an important part of California’s water infrastructure, engineered to provide resilience against flooding and reduce flood losses. The growth in California is partly associated with costly infrastructure developments that led to population expansion in the levee protected areas. Therefore, potential changes in the flood hazard could have significant socioeconomic consequences over levee protected areas, especially in the face of a changing climate. In this study, we examine the possible impacts of a warming climate on flood hazard over levee protected land in California. We use gridded maximum daily runoff from global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a wide range of variability among the climate projections, and are recommended by the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Report, to investigate possible climate-induced changes. We also quantify the exposure of several critical infrastructure protected by the levee systems (e.g. roads, electric power transmission lines, natural gas pipelines, petroleum pipelines, and railroads) to flooding. Our results provide a detailed picture of change in flood risk for different levees and the potential societal consequences (e.g. exposure of people and critical infrastructure). Levee systems in the northern part of the Central Valley and coastal counties of Southern California are likely to observe the highest increase in flood hazard relative to the past. The most evident change is projected for the northern region of the Central Valley, including Butte, Glenn, Yuba, Sutter, Sacramento, and San Joaquin counties. In the leveed regions of these counties, based on the model simulations of the future, the historical 100-year runoff can potentially increase up to threefold under RCP8.5. We argue that levee operation and maintenance along with emergency preparation plans should take into account the changes in frequencies and intensities of flood hazard in a changing climate to ensure safety of levee systems and their protected infrastructure.

Abstract Background Malaria remains one of the most devastating diseases globally, and the control of mosquitoes as the vector is mainly dependent on chemical insecticides. Elevated temperatures associated with future warmer climates could affect mosquitoes' metabolic enzyme expression and increase insecticide resistance, making vector control difficult. Understanding how mosquito rearing temperatures influence their susceptibility to insecticide and expression of metabolic enzymes could aid in the development of novel tools and strategies to control mosquitoes in a future warmer climate. This study evaluated the effects of temperature on the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes to pyrethroids and their expression of metabolic enzymes. Methods Anopheles gambiae s.l. eggs obtained from laboratory-established colonies were reared under eight temperature regimes (25, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, and 40 °C). Upon adult emergence, 3- to 5-day-old female non-blood-fed mosquitoes were used for susceptibility tests following the World Health Organization (WHO) bioassay protocol. Batches of 20–25 mosquitoes from each temperature regime (25–34 °C) were exposed to two pyrethroid insecticides (0.75% permethrin and 0.05% deltamethrin). In addition, the levels of four metabolic enzymes (α-esterase, β-esterase, glutathione S-transferase [GST], and mixed-function oxidase [MFO]) were examined in mosquitoes that were not exposed and those that were exposed to pyrethroids. Results Mortality in An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes exposed to deltamethrin and permethrin decreased at temperatures above 28 °C. In addition, mosquitoes reared at higher temperatures were more resistant and had more elevated enzyme levels than those raised at low temperatures. Overall, mosquitoes that survived after being exposed to pyrethroids had higher levels of metabolic enzymes than those that were not exposed to pyrethroids. Conclusions This study provides evidence that elevated temperatures decreased An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes' susceptibility to pyrethroids and increased the expression of metabolic enzymes. This evidence suggests that elevated temperatures projected in a future warmer climate could increase mosquitoes' resistance to insecticides and complicate malaria vector control measures. This study therefore provides vital information, and suggests useful areas of future research, on the effects of temperature variability on mosquitoes that could guide vector control measures in a future warmer climate. Graphical Abstract

While a firm knows the carbon price with certainty under a tax, it must form an expectation about future allowance prices to identify its cost-effective abatement investment under a capand-trade program. We illustrate graphically how errors in forming this expectation increase the costs of irreversible pollution abatement investment under cap-and-trade relative to a tax. We describe empirical “cost-effectiveness anomalies” in allowance markets that may be attributed to cap-and-trade's inherent uncertainty. We model investment under simulated US carbon tax and cap-and-trade policies and find that allowance price uncertainty can increase resource costs 20 percent for a given quantity of emission abatement.

This report reflects upon the concept of social innovation and the way it is used in the energy sector. It does so by bringing together theoretical investigations and empirical knowledge. We aim to clarify the concept of social innovation in the energy sector by reviewing the literature and reflecting over a number of social innovation projects in Europe. The analysis of the projects against various contextual factors and their goals reveals the significant potential of social innovation on accelerating the energy transition while tackling societal problems. Energy production, energy efficiency and energy literacy are the main domains to which socially innovative activities contribute the most. High competences of project leadership and management observed though projects are often small in scale and context-dependent. This indicates that successful socially innovative energy initiatives require advanced bottom-up governance structures even if that may imply limitations for scaling up. This setting may complicate top-down support as legal, financial or even cultural policy-making must be tailor-made and reinvent or adjust continuously. Nevertheless, social innovative activities are expected to further proliferate the following years and move towards a sound environmental, cultural, political, economic and social direction, as knowledge creation and diffusion of technological and governance innovations accompanied with policy support are on the rise. JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union

Abstract The effect of the thermal environment on performance and productivity has been a focus of interest among indoor environmental researchers for nearly a century, but most of that work has been conducted in relative isolation from the cognate disciplines of human performance evaluation. The present review examines thermal environmental effects on cognitive performance research conducted across multiple disciplines. After differentiating performance from productivity, we compare the two dominant conceptual models linking thermal stress to performance; (1) the inverted-U concept and (2) the extended-U relationship. The inverted-U specifies a single optimum temperature (or its corresponding subjective thermal sensation) at which performance is maximised. In contrast, the extended-U model posits a broad central plateau across which there is no discernible thermal effect on cognitive performance. This performance plateau is bounded by regions of progressive performance decrements in more extreme thermal conditions. The contradictions between these opposing conceptual models might derive from various confounding factors at play in their underlying research bases. These include, inter alia, environment-related, task-related, and performer-related factors, as well as their associated two-way and three-way interaction effects. Methodological discrepancies that might also contribute to the divergence of these conceptual models are evaluated, along with the proposed causal mechanisms underlying the two models. The weight of research evidence reviewed in this paper suggests that the extended-U hypothesis fits the relationship between moderate thermal environments and cognitive performance. In contrast to the inverted-U relationship, implemention of the extended-U in indoor climate control implies substantial reductions in building energy demand, since it permits the heating and cooling setpoint deadband to expand across the full width of the thermal comfort zone, or even slightly further during emergencies such as peak demand events on the electricity grid. Use of personal comfort systems can further extend the thermostat setpoint range beyond the comfort zone.

Construction involves the use of significant quantities of raw materials and entails high-energy consumption. For the sake of choosing the most appropriate solution that considers environmental and sustainable concepts, tools such as the integrated value model for sustainable assessment (Modelo Integrado de Valor para una Evaluación Sostenible, MIVES) used in Spain, plays a key role in obtaining the best solution. MIVES is a multi-criteria decision-making method based on the value function concept and the seminars delivered by experts. Such tools, in order to show how they may work, require application to case studies. In this paper, two concrete slabs manufactured with differing reinforcements during the construction of the La Canda Tunnels are compared by means of MIVES. The two concrete slabs were reinforced with a conventional steel-mesh and with polyolefin fibres. This research was focussed on the main aspects affecting the construction. That is to say, the environmental, economic, and social factors were assessed by the method, being of special impact the issues related with maintenance of the structure. The results showed that from the point of view of sustainability, the use of polyolefin fibres provided a significant advantage, mainly due to the lower maintenance required.