• Energy Research
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Deconstructing the drivers of large-scale vegetation change is critical to predicting and managing projected climate and land use changes that will affect regional vegetation cover in degraded or threated ecosystems. We investigate the shared dynamics of spatially variable vegetation across three large watersheds in the southern Africa savanna. Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate time-series dimension reduction technique, was used to identify the most important physical drivers of regional vegetation change. We first evaluated the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)- vs. the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets across their overlapping period (2001–2010). NDVI follows a general pattern of cyclic seasonal variation, with distinct spatio-temporal patterns across physio-geographic regions. Both NDVI products produced similar DFA models, although MODIS was simulated better. Soil moisture and precipitation controlled NDVI for mean annual precipitation (MAP) < 750 mm, and above this, evaporation and mean temperature dominated. A second DFA with the full AVHRR (1982–2010) data found that for MAP < 750 mm, soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration control NDVI dynamics, followed by mean and maximum temperatures. Above 950 mm, actual evapotranspiration and precipitation dominate. The quantification of the combined spatio-temporal environmental drivers of NDVI expands our ability to understand landscape level changes in vegetation evaluated through remote sensing and improves the basis for the management of vulnerable regions, like the southern Africa savannas.

The Kabul River basin (KRB) of Afghanistan, a lifeline of around 10 million people, has multiplicity of governance, management, and development-related challenges leading to inequity, inadequacy, and unreliability of irrigation water distribution. Prior to any uplifting intervention, there is a need to evaluate the performance of irrigation system on a long term basis to identify the existing bottlenecks. Although there are several indicators available for the performance evaluation of the irrigation schemes, we used the coefficient of variation (CV) of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in space (basin, sub-basin, and provincial level), relative evapotranspiration (RET), and temporal CV of RET, to assess the equity, adequacy, and reliability of water distribution, respectively, from 2003 to 2013. The ETa was estimated through a surface energy balance system (SEBS) algorithm and the ETa estimates were validated using the advection aridity (AA) method with a R2 value of 0.81 and 0.77 at Nawabad and Sultanpur stations, respectively. The global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) products were used as main inputs to the SEBS. Results show that the mean seasonal sub-based RET values during summer (May–September) (0.37 ± 0.06) and winter (October–April) (0.40 ± 0.08) are below the target values (RET ≥ 0.75) during 2003–2013. The CV of the mean ETa, within sub-basins and provinces for the entire study period, has an equitable distribution of water from October–January (0.09 ± 0.04), whereas the highest inequity (0.24 ± 0.08) in water distribution is during early summer. The range of the CV of the mean ETa (0.04–0.06) on a monthly and seasonal basis shows the unreliability of water supplies in several provinces or sub-basins. The analysis of the temporal CV of mean RET highlights the unreliable water supplies across the entire basin. The maximum ETa during the study period was estimated for the Shamal sub-basin (552 ± 43 mm) while among the provinces, Kunar experienced the highest ETa (544 ± 39 mm). This study highlights the dire need for interventions to improve the irrigation performance in time and space. The proposed methodology can be used as a framework for monitoring and implementing water distribution plans in future.

Reduction in channel capacity can trigger an increase in flood hazard over time. It represents a geomorphic driver that competes against its hydrologic counterpart where streamflow decreases. We show that this situation arose in the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain) after impoundment. We identify the physical parameters that raised flood hazard in the period 1997–2013 with respect to past years 1910–1996 and quantify their effects by accounting for temporal trends in both streamflow and channel capacity. First, we collect historical hydrological data to lengthen records of extreme flooding events since 1910. Next, inundated areas and grade lines across a 70 km stretch of up to 2 km wide floodplain are delimited from Landsat and TerraSAR-X satellite images of the most recent floods (2009–2013). Flooded areas are also computed using standard two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. Simulated stages are verified locally and across the whole domain with collected hydrological data and satellite images, respectively. The thoughtful analysis of flooding and geomorphic dynamics over multi-decadal timescales illustrates that non-stationary channel adaptation to river impoundment decreased channel capacity and increased flood hazard. Previous to channel squeezing and pre-vegetation encroachment, river discharges as high as 1450 m3·s−1 (the year 1924) were required to inundate the same areas as the 790 m3·s−1 streamflow for recent floods (the year 2010). We conclude that future projections of one-in-a-century river floods need to include geomorphic drivers as they compete with the reduction of peak discharges under the current climate change scenario.

Forest managers rely on accurate burn severity estimates to evaluate post-fire damage and to establish revegetation policies. Burn severity estimates based on reflective data acquired from sensors onboard satellites are increasingly complementing field-based ones. However, fire not only induces changes in reflected and emitted radiation measured by the sensor, but also on energy balance. Evapotranspiration (ET), land surface temperature (LST) and land surface albedo (LSA) are greatly affected by wildfires. In this study, we examine the usefulness of these elements of energy balance as indicators of burn severity and compare the accuracy of burn severity estimates based on them to the accuracy of widely used approaches based on spectral indexes. We studied a mega-fire (more than 450 km2 burned) in Central Portugal, which occurred from 17 to 24 June 2017. The official burn severity map acted as a ground reference. Variations induced by fire during the first year following the fire event were evaluated through changes in ET, LST and LSA derived from Landsat data and related to burn severity. Fisher’s least significant difference test (ANOVA) revealed that ET and LST images could discriminate three burn severity levels with statistical significance (uni-temporal and multi-temporal approaches). Burn severity was estimated from ET, LST and LSA using thresholding. Accuracy of ET and LST based on burn severity estimates was adequate (κ = 0.63 and 0.57, respectively), similar to the accuracy of the estimate based on dNBR (κ = 0.66). We conclude that Landsat-derived surface energy balance variables, in particular ET and LST, in addition to acting as useful indicators of burn severity for mega-fires in Mediterranean ecosystems, may provide critical information about how energy balance changes due to fire.

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment.

A low-cost unmanned aerial platform (UAV) equipped with RGB (Red, Green, Blue) and thermographic sensors is used for the acquisition of all the data needed for the automatic detection and evaluation of thermal pathologies on photovoltaic (PV) surfaces and geometric defects in the mounting on photovoltaic power stations. RGB imagery is used for the generation of a georeferenced 3D point cloud through digital image preprocessing, photogrammetric and computer vision algorithms. The point cloud is complemented with temperature values measured by the thermographic sensor and with intensity values derived from the RGB data in order to obtain a multidimensional product (5D: 3D geometry plus temperature and intensity on the visible spectrum). A segmentation workflow based on the proper integration of several state-of-the-art geomatic and mathematic techniques is applied to the 5D product for the detection and sizing of thermal pathologies and geometric defects in the mounting in the PV panels. It consists of a three-step segmentation procedure, involving first the geometric information, then the radiometric (RGB) information, and last the thermal data. No configuration of parameters is required. Thus, the methodology presented contributes to the automation of the inspection of PV farms, through the maximization of the exploitation of the data acquired in the different spectra (visible and thermal infrared bands). Results of the proposed workflow were compared with a ground truth generated according to currently established protocols and complemented with a topographic survey. The proposed methodology was able to detect all pathologies established by the ground truth without adding any false positives. Discrepancies in the measurement of damaged surfaces regarding established ground truth, which can reach the 5% of total panel surface for the visual inspection by an expert operator, decrease with the proposed methodology under the 2%. The geometric evaluation of the facilities presents discrepancies regarding the ground truth lower than one degree for angular parameters (azimuth and tilt) and lower than 0.05 m2 for the area of each solar panel.

This is an update of Sobrino et al.’s paper, published in January 2020, which extends the calculation of the Earth’s surface temperature to the period 2003–2019 and uses the new version 2019.0 for the sea surface temperature product MODIS, which is available from 15 January 2020 and replaces version 2014.0. The land surface temperature was estimated from the MCD11C1 product for the same period. The results corroborate the temperature anomalies retrieved from climate models and improve the comparison with global annual air temperatures estimated by the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-NCDC), with a correlation coefficient of 0.96. In addition, a trend of 0.021 ± 0.001 °C/year increase was found for the Earth’s surface temperature in this 17-year period.