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AbstractIntense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small‐scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast‐ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data‐assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set‐up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo‐global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.

AbstractIntense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small‐scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast‐ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data‐assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set‐up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo‐global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.

In Europe, the perennial C4 grass miscanthus is currently mainly cultivated for energy generation via combustion. In recent years, anaerobic digestion has been identified as a promising alternative utilization pathway. Anaerobic digestion produces a higher-value intermediate (biogas), which can be upgraded to biomethane, stored in the existing natural gas infrastructure and further utilized as a transport fuel or in combined heat and power plants. However, the upgrading of the solid biomass into gaseous fuel leads to conversion-related energy losses, the level of which depends on the cultivation parameters genotype, location, and harvest date. Thus, site-specific crop management needs to be adapted to the intended utilization pathway. The objectives of this paper are to quantify (i) the impact of genotype, location and harvest date on energy yields of anaerobic digestion and combustion and (ii) the conversion losses of upgrading solid biomass into biogas. For this purpose, five miscanthus genotypes (OPM 3, 6, 9, 11, 14), three cultivation locations (Adana, Moscow, Stuttgart), and up to six harvest dates (August-March) were assessed. Anaerobic digestion yielded, on average, 35% less energy than combustion. Genotype, location, and harvest date all had significant impacts on the energy yield. For both, this is determined by dry matter yield and ash content and additionally by substrate-specific methane yield for anaerobic digestion and moisture content for combustion. Averaged over all locations and genotypes, an early harvest in August led to 25% and a late harvest to 45% conversion losses. However, each utilization option has its own optimal harvest date, determined by biomass yield, biomass quality, and cutting tolerance. By applying an autumn green harvest for anaerobic digestion and a delayed harvest for combustion, the conversion-related energy loss was reduced to an average of 18%. This clearly shows that the delayed harvest required to maintain biomass quality for combustion is accompanied by high energy losses through yield reduction over winter. The pre-winter harvest applied in the biogas utilization pathway avoids these yield losses and largely compensates for the conversion-related energy losses of anaerobic digestion.

In Europe, the perennial C4 grass miscanthus is currently mainly cultivated for energy generation via combustion. In recent years, anaerobic digestion has been identified as a promising alternative utilization pathway. Anaerobic digestion produces a higher-value intermediate (biogas), which can be upgraded to biomethane, stored in the existing natural gas infrastructure and further utilized as a transport fuel or in combined heat and power plants. However, the upgrading of the solid biomass into gaseous fuel leads to conversion-related energy losses, the level of which depends on the cultivation parameters genotype, location, and harvest date. Thus, site-specific crop management needs to be adapted to the intended utilization pathway. The objectives of this paper are to quantify (i) the impact of genotype, location and harvest date on energy yields of anaerobic digestion and combustion and (ii) the conversion losses of upgrading solid biomass into biogas. For this purpose, five miscanthus genotypes (OPM 3, 6, 9, 11, 14), three cultivation locations (Adana, Moscow, Stuttgart), and up to six harvest dates (August-March) were assessed. Anaerobic digestion yielded, on average, 35% less energy than combustion. Genotype, location, and harvest date all had significant impacts on the energy yield. For both, this is determined by dry matter yield and ash content and additionally by substrate-specific methane yield for anaerobic digestion and moisture content for combustion. Averaged over all locations and genotypes, an early harvest in August led to 25% and a late harvest to 45% conversion losses. However, each utilization option has its own optimal harvest date, determined by biomass yield, biomass quality, and cutting tolerance. By applying an autumn green harvest for anaerobic digestion and a delayed harvest for combustion, the conversion-related energy loss was reduced to an average of 18%. This clearly shows that the delayed harvest required to maintain biomass quality for combustion is accompanied by high energy losses through yield reduction over winter. The pre-winter harvest applied in the biogas utilization pathway avoids these yield losses and largely compensates for the conversion-related energy losses of anaerobic digestion.

Abstract. The impact of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition on carbon (C) sequestration in soils and biomass of unfertilized, natural, semi-natural and forest ecosystems has been much debated. Many previous results of this dC∕dN response were based on changes in carbon stocks from periodical soil and ecosystem inventories, associated with estimates of Nr deposition obtained from large-scale chemical transport models. This study and a companion paper (Flechard et al., 2020) strive to reduce uncertainties of N effects on C sequestration by linking multi-annual gross and net ecosystem productivity estimates from 40 eddy covariance flux towers across Europe to local measurement-based estimates of dry and wet Nr deposition from a dedicated collocated monitoring network. To identify possible ecological drivers and processes affecting the interplay between C and Nr inputs and losses, these data were also combined with in situ flux measurements of NO, N2O and CH4 fluxes; soil NO3- leaching sampling; and results of soil incubation experiments for N and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as surveys of available data from online databases and from the literature, together with forest ecosystem (BASFOR) modelling. Multi-year averages of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests ranged from −70 to 826 g C m−2 yr−1 at total wet + dry inorganic Nr deposition rates (Ndep) of 0.3 to 4.3 g N m−2 yr−1 and from −4 to 361 g C m−2 yr−1 at Ndep rates of 0.1 to 3.1 g N m−2 yr−1 in short semi-natural vegetation (moorlands, wetlands and unfertilized extensively managed grasslands). The GHG budgets of the forests were strongly dominated by CO2 exchange, while CH4 and N2O exchange comprised a larger proportion of the GHG balance in short semi-natural vegetation. Uncertainties in elemental budgets were much larger for nitrogen than carbon, especially at sites with elevated Ndep where Nr leaching losses were also very large, and compounded by the lack of reliable data on organic nitrogen and N2 losses by denitrification. Nitrogen losses in the form of NO, N2O and especially NO3- were on average 27 % (range 6 %–54 %) of Ndep at sites with Ndep < 1 g N m−2 yr−1 versus 65 % (range 35 %–85 %) for Ndep > 3 g N m−2 yr−1. Such large levels of Nr loss likely indicate that different stages of N saturation occurred at a number of sites. The joint analysis of the C and N budgets provided further hints that N saturation could be detected in altered patterns of forest growth. Net ecosystem productivity increased with Nr deposition up to 2–2.5 g N m−2 yr−1, with large scatter associated with a wide range in carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE, defined as the NEP ∕ GPP ratio). At elevated Ndep levels (> 2.5 g N m−2 yr−1), where inorganic Nr losses were also increasingly large, NEP levelled off and then decreased. The apparent increase in NEP at low to intermediate Ndep levels was partly the result of geographical cross-correlations between Ndep and climate, indicating that the actual mean dC∕dN response at individual sites was significantly lower than would be suggested by a simple, straightforward regression of NEP vs. Ndep.