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A promising route to transition wastewater treatment facilities (WWTFs) from energy-consuming to net energy-positive is to retrofit existing facilities with process modifications, residual biosolid upcycling, and effluent thermal energy recovery. This study assesses the economics and life cycle environmental impacts of three proposed retrofits of WWTFs that consider thermochemical conversion technologies, namely, hydrothermal liquefaction, slow pyrolysis, and fast pyrolysis, along with advanced bioreactors. The results are in turn compared to the reference design, showing the retrofitting design with hydrothermal liquefaction, and an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket has the highest net present value (NPV) of $177.36MM over a 20-year plant lifetime despite 15% higher annual production costs than the reference design. According to the ReCiPe method, chlorination is identified as the major contributor for most impact categories in all cases. There are several uncertainties embedded in the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment, including the discount rate, capital investment, sewer rate, and prices of main products; among which, the price of biochar presents the widest variation from $50 to $1900/t. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the variation of discount rates causes the most significant changes in NPVs. The impact of the biochar price is more pronounced in the slow pyrolysis-based pathway compared to the fast pyrolysis since biochar is the main product of slow pyrolysis.

Abstract Numerous countries have set up strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in response to oil disruptions since 1970. While numerous studies model such programs, we found few that evaluate SPRs' historical performance. Thus, we evaluate the U.S. SPR's performance by comparing actual real costs with estimated real benefits. From 1976 to 2014, the real U.S. SPR cost was about $219 billion real (2014$) dollars, whereas the real benefit was only $122 billion. Sensitivity testing suggests such negative net benefits are qualitatively robust. However, if world oil demand is extremely inelastic to oil price or GDP is elastic enough to oil price shocks, the estimated U.S. SPR net benefit is positive. Sensitivity testing around total real costs and benefits range from $380 billion to $80 billion. Limited testing of IEA coordinated drawdowns suggests that total U.S. benefits jump from $122 billion to more than $400 billion putting the SPR strongly in the black. Limited testing of private sector inventory changes was more disappointing and tentatively suggests private activities may at times have offset some of the government drawdowns. With 20-20 hindsight, initial experimentation found that better management could have significantly enhanced the value of the U.S. SPR, especially for the 1990-91 disruption.

SummaryThe German government has adopted a law that requires sewage plants to go beyond the recovery of phosphorus from wastewater and to promote recycling. We argue that there is no physical global short‐ or mid‐term phosphorus scarcity. However, we also argue that there are legitimate reasons for policies such as those of Germany, including: precaution as a way to ensure future generations’ long‐term supply security, promotion of technologies for closed‐loop economics in a promising stage of technology development, and decrease in the current supply risk with a new resource pool.

Much of New South Wales and southern Queensland suffered from extreme drought from 2017 to 2019. This study models drought and bushfires impacts using VU‐TERM, a multi‐regional, dynamic CGE model. Prolonged drought pushed national real GDP to 0.7 per cent or more below base in 2018–2019 and 2019–2020. NSW’s real GDP fell relative to forecast by 1.1 per cent or $6.9 billion in 2018–2019 and 1.6 per cent or $10.2 billion in 2019–2020. These impacts reflect a severe diminution of farm output, given that agriculture accounts for around 1.6 per cent of NSW’s income. Bushfires exacerbated 2019–2020 losses. We assume that there is a full recovery in seasonal conditions in 2020. However, prolonged drought and bushfire destruction deplete farm capital through depressed investment and diminished herd numbers. Consequently, the income earning capacity of farms in recovery remains below that of a no drought base. The net present value of the national welfare loss is $63 billion, split between $53 billion in losses from drought and $10 billion from bushfires. The latter excludes any valuation of human lives lost, flora, fauna or forestry destruction. In the longer term, adaptation and policy responses will need to reflect the expectation of increased frequency of adverse climatic events.

Abstract This paper studies the impact of oil price changes on economic growth in Saudi Arabia to measure its dependency on the crude oil sector. To this end, an On/Off threshold regression is specified to allow the oil/GDP relationship to be asymmetric, nonlinear, and time-varying with regard to the business cycle phases. Further, we empirically test the diversification hypothesis put forward by the National Transformation Program (Saudi Vision 2030) to check whether the equity-energy investment initiative could boost economic growth in Saudi Arabia. First, our findings confirm the contribution of the oil sector to economic growth in the country, but also show that the oil/Saudi economy relationship exhibits nonlinearity and threshold effects, as the impact of oil price varies per regime depending on the state of the market. Second, in line with the Vision 2030 expectations, we are in favor of transforming the economy and opening its equity market. We also quantify a positive and significant impact of equity investment on the Saudi Arabian economy. Further, this diversification route will stimulate a beneficial oil effect on the real economy.

The Asia-Pacific region has the most rapidly growing energy demand in the world and will continue to have an increasing impact on world energy demand. Given the heterogeneity of economies in the region, any regional demand analysis has to be constructed country by country. In undertaking the demand forecasts provided in this study, scenarios were developed for high, low, and base cases that take into account variations in economic performance, prices, and fuel substitution in individual nations and in the region as a whole. China is included in the aggregate regional data provided in this article. Data from the countries of the former Soviet Union are not included in the regional totals in this article and are discussed separately in article 4.

Abstract This article analyzes the CFTC's Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (DCOT) Report to get more insights into the behavior of different traders during the 2008 oil bubble. The analysis shows that: (1) the Money Manager category perfectly played the oil bubble, got in early and started selling shortly before the bubble peak; (2) the Producer/Merchant/Processor/User category and the Nonreportable category were covering their short positions into the peak of the bubble; (3) the Swap/Dealer category benefited while the price of oil was rising, but incurred heavy losses as the price of oil collapsed; (4) we find no indications of speculation by any group of traders via the positive feedback trading or rational destabilization; and (5) we do, however, criticize the commercial hedgers for failing to arbitrage the soaring oil prices in 2008.

Abstract Although the “resource curse” hypothesis has been supported by many empirical studies focusing on the transnational and regional levels, there has always been a point of contention about the proper method of estimating and selecting natural resource indicators in literature. This paper proposes a mixed estimation method for panel data of 10 typical oil and gas resource-based cities in China from 1998 to 2015. The results show that resource industry agglomeration can mirror the distribution and dependence on the resource industry by location rather than by merely measuring the influence of the relative scale of resource extraction on economic growth. Using resource industry agglomeration as the main explanatory variable for regional economic growth verifies the resource curse hypothesis and shows the nonlinear characteristics of the negative correlation between resources and economic growth. Despite mostly similar indicator parameter estimates, marked differences exist in measured effects for material capital investments and technological innovation investments. The result of using resource industry agglomeration as the main explanatory variable is basically consistent with the economic theory and is more in line with observed reality than the alternative indicator. The research conclusions can provide evidence and data for index selection in the studies on the mediating effect of resource curse transmission and international comparison.

We estimate models that identify the economic and organizational determinants of crude oil production by individual OPEC nations. To clarify the interpretation of econometric results, we model production with specifications that resolve the statistical ordering of variables and estimate models with techniques that can cope with stochastic trends in the time series. We also analyze the short-run dynamics for asymmetries that may carry important insights about OPEC behavior. Results indicate that Quotas are an important determinant of production and their effects generally are symmetric, which implies that OPEC is an organization that influences production and ultimately prices. Real prices generally have a positive effect on production and the size of this effect may depend on spare capacity, which implies that OPEC behaviors also embody competitive elements. Finally all nations other than Saudi Arabia show some form of production sharing behavior, which may imply that OPEC shares mismatches between the call for OPEC production and OPEC quotas.