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Periglacial alluvial fans are common in northwestern and central Europe and their pre-Holocene stratigraphic records typically date back to late Middle Pleniglacial and Late Pleniglacial (late MIS3 and 2). Preserved stratigraphic records that include an entire interglacial-glacial cycle have, so far, not been described and it is thus unknown how periglacial alluvial fans responded during a full cycle of interglacial-glacial climate changes. In this paper, we reconstruct the evolution of the Eerbeek periglacial alluvial fan in the Netherlands which was deposited during the late Saalian (MIS 6) to late Weichselian (MIS 2) period, including the entire last interglacial–glacial cycle (MIS 5-2). Our reconstruction is based on 48, up-to 45-m deep borehole and Cone Penetration Test (CPT) logs that allowed the construction of an 8-km long longitudinal and a 7-km long transverse cross section over the Eerbeek periglacial alluvial fan. Age control was provided by means of 17, previously published, Optically Stimulated Luminescence ages of two boreholes on the fan, and 14 14C ages from three boreholes and a nearby, now abandoned, quarry.Overlying a thick, late Saalian (MIS 6) alluvial fan record, is a 4- to 18-m thick alternation of distinct organic (mainly peat and humic clays), siliciclastic alluvial fan (coarse- and medium-grained sands), Rhine (coarse- and medium grained sands), and aeolian (mainly medium-grained sands) stratigraphic units. Organic levels indicate fan stability during the Eemian interglacial (MIS 5e), and Brørup (MIS 5c), Odderade–Ognon interstadial complex (MIS 5a), and Middle Pleniglacial (MIS 3) interstadials 14, 13, 12 and 11 as well as late MIS 2 interstadial 1a. Clastic sediments indicate alluvial fan activity during the Herning (MIS 5d), Rederstall (MIS 5b), Ognon stadial complex (late MIS 5a), Early Pleniglacial (MIS 4) and upper Middle Pleniglacial (upper MIS 3) stadials 13, 12 and 11. Sediments from the coldest and driest period of the Last Glacial (late MIS 3 and MIS 2) are absent and following a phase of aeolian activity, the fan was only reactivated at the MIS 2 to MIS 1 transition (stadial 1). We attribute the absence of fan activity during the coldest period of the last interglacial-glacial cycle to the eastward orientation of the fan making it less sensitive to permafrost melt.The colder MIS substages and stadials in which the Eerbeek fan was active coincided with the presence of permafrost and/or a seasonal, deeply frozen soil, and a relatively humid climate during which vegetation was largely absent. The presence of channels that dissect the underlying organic units suggests that the Eerbeek fan initially responded to the changes from interstadials to stadials by means of erosion. As climate cooled and permafrost/deep frost developed, the fan switched to alluvial aggradation. The consistent presence of coarsening-fining upward sequences suggests a relation with cycles of increased overland flow due to increasingly more frozen subsoil conditions. The fan stratigraphy therefore shows the direct coupling between warmer-colder MIS substages and interstadial-stadial climate cyclicity and alluvial fan response over the entire last interglacial-glacial cycle.

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

Extreme summer droughts are expected to occur more often in the future in NW Europe due to climate change. These droughts might accelerate the rate of peat oxidation in drained peat areas, with impacts on soil subsidence, GHG emission and water quality. This study aimed at providing more insight in the oxidation of deep peat layers that had not previously been exposed to air, the so-called secondary decomposition. We incubated two types of peat (eutrophic and oligotrophic), sampled from permanently anoxic peat layers from nature reserves and agricultural peat meadows. Peat samples were incubated for thirteen weeks under anoxic conditions, but were exposed to air for one to eight weeks. The production of CO2 and CH4 was quantified as a proxy for decomposition; concentrations of soluble nutrients and phenolic compounds were also measured. The results showed that oxygenation led to a steep increase in the rate of decomposition, indicated by higher carbon loss rates during and after oxygenation compared to non-oxygenated samples. Carbon loss rates increased more for eutrophic peat (agricultural area: 352%, nature reserve: 182%) than for oligotrophic peat (83% and 159% respectively). Most peat samples investigated showed higher post-oxygenation CO2 and/or CH4 production compared to the anoxic pre-oxygenation period. This indicates that oxygenation stimulates decomposition, even after anoxic conditions have returned. Contrary to the enzymic latch theory, no effects of oxygenation on the concentrations of soluble or condensed phenolic compounds were detected. Soluble nutrient concentrations did not change due to oxygenation either. Noteworthy is the occurrence of pyrite mineralization and associated acidification in eutrophic peat. Thus, low summer water levels, for example due to climate change, should be avoided in order to limit exceptionally high decomposition rates and associated problems such as increasing subsidence rates, greenhouse gas emission, sulfate release and acidification.

This paper proposes a novel online and self-learning algorithm to the identification of fuzzy neural networks, which not only learns the structure and parameters online but also learns the threshold parameters by itself and automatically. For structure learning, a self-constructing approach including adding neurons and merging highly similar fuzzy rules is proposed based on the criteria of the system error between actual and model output and the maximum firing strength of neurons. In order to achieve the efficient merging computing, a new calculation method of similarity degree between fuzzy rules is developed. Further and more importantly, the varying width of Gaussian membership functions can be learned by itself according to the underfitting and overfitting criteria. Similarly, different from the existing constant threshold of similarity degree for merging, the varying threshold of similarity degree can be self-learned according to the real-time accuracy of model. The proposed self-learning mechanism significantly improves the model accuracy and greatly enhances the easy usability. Several benchmark examples are implemented to illustrate the effectiveness and feasible of the proposed approach.

This thesis explores Germany’s *Energiewende* (‘energy transition’) and the role of citizen/community energy democracy initiatives at municipal and state levels in shaping developments that underpin this society-wide transformation - examining how grassroots agitation, in particular, has prompted meaningful action and policy change on the part of government at multiple levels. Using Berlin and Hamburg - Germany’s largest urban centers and leading city-states in the country’s federal system - as case studies, the research examines how citizens’ initiatives in both cities have campaigned for the remunicipalization of local energy networks to expedite, democratize, and incorporate social justice goals into each region’s Energiewende. Finally, this study pivots to consider the progress of the transition nationally in recent years, investigating how major events like the Covid-19 pandemic, watershed federal elections in 2021, war in Ukraine, and the resultant energy crisis have affected the evolution and direction of the Energiewende, and the important contributions of citizen/community energy initiatives to the national response here. The analytical framework draws on over 100 interviews conducted with relevant stakeholders and experts involved in the transition, representing different perspectives (e.g. on remunicipalization and the Energiewende itself) and diverse levels of government (e.g. from the district to federal level). This extensive body of original research is complemented by a wide array of other relevant source material that has likewise been consulted to inform this work and further evaluate the impacts of bottom-up energy democracy initiatives on the broader transition in Germany’s regions - and, by extension, nationally - as they continue to affect the pace and trajectory of the now-famous Energiewende. Ultimately, this study contributes an in-depth, ground-level analysis to the literature of key elements that have driven energy system change in Germany, shining a fresh light on the complex and interrelated nexus of sustained grassroots action, policy responses, and shifting sociopolitical realities that form the context in which the Energiewende has been (re)launched, reformed, and reimagined over the decades.

In industrialized countries, large amounts of mineral wastes are produced. They are re-used in various ways, particularly in road and earth constructions, substituting primary resources such as gravel. However, they may also contain pollutants, such as heavy metals, which may be leached to the groundwater. The toxic impacts of these emissions are so far often neglected within Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of products or waste treatment services and thus, potentially large environmental impacts are currently missed. This study aims at closing this gap by assessing the ecotoxic impacts of heavy metal leaching from industrial mineral wastes in road and earth constructions. The flows of metals such as Sb, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, V and Zn originating from three typical constructions to the environment are quantified, their fate in the environment is assessed and potential ecotoxic effects evaluated. For our reference country, Germany, the industrial wastes that are applied as Granular Secondary Construction Material (GSCM) carry more than 45,000 t of diverse heavy metals per year. Depending on the material quality and construction type applied, up to 150 t of heavy metals may leach to the environment within the first 100 years after construction. Heavy metal retardation in subsoil can potentially reduce the fate to groundwater by up to 100%. One major challenge of integrating leaching from constructions into macro-scale LCA frameworks is the high variability in micro-scale technical and geographical factors, such as material qualities, construction types and soil types. In our work, we consider a broad range of parameter values in the modeling of leaching and fate. This allows distinguishing between the impacts of various road constructions, as well as sites with different soil properties. The findings of this study promote the quantitative consideration of environmental impacts of long-term leaching in Life Cycle Assessment, complementing site-specific risk assessment, for the design of waste management strategies, particularly in the construction sector.

Organic solar cells utilize an energy-level offset to generate free charge carriers. Although a very small energy-level offset increases the open-circuit voltage, it remains unclear how exactly charge generation is affected. Here we investigate organic solar cell blends with highest occupied molecular orbital energy-level offsets (∆EHOMO) between the donor and acceptor that range from 0 to 300 meV. We demonstrate that exciton quenching at a negligible ∆EHOMO takes place on timescales that approach the exciton lifetime of the pristine materials, which drastically limits the external quantum efficiency. We quantitatively describe this finding via the Boltzmann stationary-state equilibrium between charge-transfer states and excitons and further reveal a long exciton lifetime to be decisive in maintaining an efficient charge generation at a negligible ∆EHOMO. Moreover, the Boltzmann equilibrium quantitatively describes the major reduction in non-radiative voltage losses at a very small ∆EHOMO. Ultimately, highly luminescent near-infrared emitters with very long exciton lifetimes are suggested to enable highly efficient organic solar cells. Donor–acceptor systems with low energy-level offset enable high power efficiency in organic solar cells yet it is unclear what drives charge generation. Classen et al. show that long exciton lifetimes enable efficient exciton splitting and thus generation of free charges while also suppressing voltage losses.

In recent decades, many societal changes have unfolded, including population ageing, reconfigurations of household structures, labour market transformation, and a secular deceleration of economic growth. These shifts pose considerable challenges to preexisting welfare states, particularly to the efficacy of countries’ pension systems. This dissertation examines the context and trajectory of pension reforms in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Its contribution is to ascertain the viability and political feasibility of reforms that enhance the financial sustainability of their pension systems, while maintaining adequate income and coverage levels. The dissertation builds on political economy approaches and on the institutionalist literature, which highlight how the role of interest groups and structure of institutions and political systems shape policy outcomes. The frameworks of blame avoidance and credit-claiming are also considered, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics surrounding pension systems and reform efforts. This dissertation uses a mixed-methods approach – including public opinion surveys of 3,000+ individuals, semi-structured elite interviews, historical document analyses, and specialized fiscal and actuarial projections of selected pension reforms in the three selected countries. It addresses three core research questions: 1) What is the current context for pension reform in Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States given their histories? 2) Is the necessary (for achieving specific minimum levels of sustainability, adequacy, and coverage) pension reform politically feasible? 3) How do the characteristics of each reform affect its political feasibility? Corollary: The modification of which channel (benefits, contributions, retirement age) is perceived as more politically feasible for diverse stakeholders? The methodology chosen provides a timely picture of the context surrounding potential pension reforms in the three case studies. In Mexico, credit-claiming and the interests of private stakeholders explain the success of recent pension reforms, and partisan politics are the key determinants for future fiscal changes. For the United Kingdom, the institutionalist literature helps explain the reasons for the relatively easier reform avenues; the most politically feasible reforms are those in the private sector, while the housing market is of key importance for pensions. In the United States, the institutionalist literature and the framework of blame avoidance also help explain the current legislative gridlock and the reasons why no major reform has been enacted for decades. For Mexico and the United Kingdom there exist politically feasible reforms, notably a modification of the retirement age channel, that can increase the system’s sustainability while maintaining income adequacy and coverage; whereas based on the current context of extreme polarisation and legislative gridlock, there do not seem to exist politically feasible pension reforms that preserve the structure of Social Security in the United States. The dissertation brings the lens of political feasibility to bear on a previously technical literature on the structure of the pension systems in the three countries, and thus on the feasibility of reform to deliver financial sustainability, adequacy of retirement incomes, and adequate coverage of the old age population. It identifies the feasible routes for reform in Mexico and the United Kingdom, but concludes that the political economy context the United States has reached rules out feasible reforms of its current pension structures.