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Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

The aggravating global problems of energy crisis, rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accumulation of persistent waste have attracted the attention of scientists, policy-makers and global organisations to come up with effective and expeditious solutions to address these challenges. In this context, the development of sustainable technologies driven by renewable energy sources for the production of clean fuels and commodity chemicals from diverse waste feedstocks is an appealing approach towards creating a circular economy. Over the years, semiconductor photocatalysts based on TiO₂, CdS, carbon-nitrides (CNx) and carbon dots (CDs) have been widely used for the photocatalytic reforming (PC reforming) of pre-treated waste substrates to organic products, accompanied with clean hydrogen (H₂) generation. However, these conventional solar-driven processes suffer from major drawbacks such as low production rates, poor product selectivity, CO₂ release, challenging process and catalyst optimisation, and harsh waste pre-treatment conditions, which limit their commercial applicability. These challenges are tackled in this thesis with the introduction of new and efficient photoelectrochemical (PEC) and chemoenzymatic processes for reforming a diverse range of waste feedstocks to sustainable fuels. Solar-driven PEC reforming based on halide perovskite light-absorber is first developed as an attractive alternative to PC reforming. The PEC systems consist of a perovskite|Pt photocathode for clean H₂ production and a Cu-Pd alloy anode for reforming diverse waste streams, including pre-treated cellulosic biomass, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) plastics, and industrial by-product glycerol into industrially-relevant, value-added chemicals (gluconic acid, glycolic acid and glyceric acid) without any externally applied bias or voltage. Additionally, the single light-absorber PEC systems can also convert the airborne waste stream and greenhouse gas CO₂ to diverse products with the simultaneous reforming of PET plastics with no applied voltage. The perovskite-based photocathode enables the integration of different CO₂ reduction catalysts such as a molecular cobalt porphyrin, a Cu-In alloy and formate dehydrogenase enzyme, which produce CO, syngas and formate, respectively. The versatile PEC systems, which can be assembled in either a ‘two-compartment’ or standalone ‘artificial leaf’ configurations achieve 60‒90% oxidation product selectivity (with no over-oxidation) and >100 µmol cm‾² h‾¹ product formation rates, corresponding to 10²‒10⁴ times higher activity than conventional PC reforming systems. In addition to developing PEC platforms, this thesis also explores avenues for circumventing the harsh alkaline pre-treatment strategies (pH >13, 60‒80 ºC) adopted for photoreforming waste substrates. For this purpose, a chemoenzymatic pathway is introduced whereby PET and polycaprolactone plastics were deconstructed using functional enzymes under benign conditions (pH 6‒8, 37‒65 ºC), followed by PC reforming using Pt loaded TiO₂ (TiO₂|Pt) or Ni₂P loaded carbon-nitride (CNx|Ni₂P) photocatalysts. The chemoenzymatic reforming process demonstrates versatility in upcycling polyester films and nanoplastics for H₂ production at high yields reaching ∼10³‒10⁴ µmol gsub‾¹ and activities at >500 µmol gcat‾¹ h‾¹. The utilisation of enzyme pre-treated plastics also allowed the coupling of plastic reforming with photocatalytic CO₂-to-syngas conversion using a phosphonated cobalt bis(terpyridine) co-catalyst immobilised on TiO₂ (TiO₂|CotpyP). Finally, moving beyond solar-driven systems, a bio-electrocatalytic flow process is demonstrated for the conversion of microbe pre-treated food waste to ethylene (an important feedstock in the chemical industry) on graphitic carbon electrodes via succinic acid as the central intermediate. In conclusion, with its focus on improving efficiencies, achieving selective product formation, building versatile platforms, diversifying substrate and product scope, and reducing carbon footprint and economic strain, this thesis aims to bring sustainable waste-to-fuel technologies a step closer to commercial implementation.

National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.0–2.4 °C by 2100, bringing the Paris Agreement temperature goal within reach. A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. These targets could substantially lower projected warming as compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). Current pledges for emissions cuts are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal. The wave of net zero targets being discussed and adopted could make the Paris goal possible if further countries follow suit.

Abstract While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand is of crucial importance. Moreover, developed countries may induce environmental stress beyond their own borders, for instance through extensive imports of bioenergy. In this paper, Germany serves as an example of a developed country with ambitious energy transformation targets. Results show that in particular, the politically-driven aspiration for more organic farming in Germany results in a higher import quota of biomass, especially biofuels. These imports translate into land demand, which will exceed the area available in Germany for bioenergy by a factor of 3–6.5 by 2050. As this will likely bring about land stress in the respective exporting countries, this effect of the German energy transformation ought to be limited as much as possible. In contrast, domestic water demand for the German energy system is expected to decrease by over 80% through 2050 due to declining numbers of fossil-fuelled power plants. However, possible future irrigation needs for bioenergy may reduce or even counterbalance this decreasing effect. In addition, energy policy targets specific to the transport sector show a high sensitivity to biomass imports. In particular, the sector-specific target for greenhouse gas reductions will seemingly promote biomass imports, leading to the above-described challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.

Abstract The rapid uptake of renewable energy sources requires new forms of flexibility in electricity systems, including a more responsive demand-side. The social acceptability, scale and economic value of flexible demand remain subjects of conjecture. In this paper we inform this debate with a multi-methods approach using three instruments: surveys, observations and modelling. This multi-method approach brings out similarities and differences between Germany and Great Britain in relation to demand-side flexibility. Participants in both countries express a high willingness to participate in time variant tariffs, but their implementation may need to be context specific. In Germany national peak demand occurs at midday, when PV generation results in lower emission factors. Conversely, British peak demand is in the early evening when emission factors are at their highest. The differences in responses allow us to explore important technical and cultural differences affecting the need for flexibility. Germany gains most from flexibility during the daytime in summer, while flexibility in Great Britain contributes most during winter evenings. We observe high degrees of acceptability of time-variant electricity tariffs (55%) and willingness to shift demand is high, resulting in peak demand reductions of up to 14.5%. However, the resulting cost and carbon savings of these efforts is less than 2% in both countries. We conclude that short term carbon or cost savings may be less powerful motivators for load shifting measures than long term system decarbonisation.

Moisture availability is a strong determinant of decomposition rates in forests worldwide. Climate models suggest that many terrestrial ecosystems are at risk from future droughts, suggesting moisture limiting conditions will develop across a range of forests worldwide. The impacts of increasing drought conditions on forest carbon (C) fluxes due to shifts in organic matter decay rates may be poorly characterised due to limited experimental research. To appraise this question, we conducted a meta-analysis of forest drought experiment studies worldwide, examining spatial limits, knowledge gaps and potential biases. To identify limits to experimental knowledge, we projected the global distribution of forest drought experiments against spatially modelled estimates of (i) future precipitation change, (ii) ecosystem total above-ground C and (iii) soil C storage. Our assessment, involving 115 individual experimental study locations, found a mismatch between the distribution of forest drought experiments and regions with higher levels of future drought risk and C storage, such as Central America, Amazonia, the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, equatorial Africa and Indonesia. Decomposition rate responses in litter and soil were also relatively under-studied, with only 30 experiments specifically examining the potential experimental impacts of drought on C fluxes from soil or litter. We propose new approaches for engaging experimentally with forest drought research, utilising standardised protocols to appraise the impacts of drought on the C cycle, while targeting the most vulnerable and relevant forests.

Ammonia has been responsible for feeding population growth in the 20th century through synthetic fertilizer, and is poised to become the preferred energy storage medium for a society powered by renewable electricity in the 21st century. However, conventional brown ammonia production through the Haber-Bosch process is optimized for utilization of centralized and steady energy supply from fossil-fuels. When shifting to distributed and intermittent energy supply through wind and solar energy, a re-optimization is required for a low-capital and flexible green ammonia production processes. This thesis re-designs and Haber-Bosch process by targeting the integration of reaction and separation in a single process vessel at low pressures, thereby achieving the simplification and down-scaling of the high pressure recycle loop of the Haber-Bosch process. Materials are developed for this purpose, the feasibility of integration is demonstrated, and mathematical modeling is utilized for assessing the application of the single-vessel process to a range of renewable energy sources in comparison to competing ammonia production processes. Herein, a catalyst with low-temperature (< 350°C) and high-conversion (i.e. near equilibrium) activity is developed using ruthenium nanoparticles as the active metal supported on ceria and promoted with cesium to mitigate hydrogen and ammonia inhibition, respectively. This catalyst is compared to commercial iron-based catalyst from the perspective of the final application. Concurrently, a high-temperature (> 300°C) manganese chloride absorbent is developed that resists decomposition and is stable when supported on silica. These catalyst and absorbent are integrated in a layered reactor configuration to demonstrate the feasibility of the integrated process by exceeding single-pass reaction equilibrium. Mathematical modelling of ammonia production processes illustrates that at small-scales (< 1 t day-1) the single-vessel process is optimal compared to the Haber-Bosch process due to its modular design. In addition, it can achieve simpler ramping because the Haber-Bosch process is constrained by heat-integration in the recycle loop and the potential for runaway reaction. For final application, the pairing of ammonia production processes with examples of intermittent solar and wind sources demonstrates that the flexibility of the production process is essential when considering non-ideal sources of energy with a long-term (e.g. seasonal) oscillations. Flexible ammonia production also expands the economic usage of ammonia as an energy storage vector from the seasonal to the weekly time-scale, with advantage compared to batteries or hydrogen. The work of this thesis provides a framework for advancing the electrification of the chemical industry given the novel constrains of intermittent and distributed renewable energy. A systems level approach is applied from the ground up, starting from material design and progressing to optimized process design and application.

This paper assesses the capacity of Whitehouse, Jamaica to adapt to climate change. A community-based vulnerability assessment was conducted that employed semi-structured interviews with community members within or related to the tourism, fisheries and agricultural sectors. The results were analysed using the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) framework, which characterises adaptive capacity based on five elements: asset base; institutions and entitlements; knowledge and information; innovation; and flexible forward-looking decision-making and governance. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, it argues that many elements of the LAC framework correspond with an evolutionary perspective on adaptive capacity. Second, it offers an in-depth case study of the capacity of Whitehouse to adapt to climate change. Third, it offers a critical assessment of whether the LAC framework fully captures the important elements of adaptive capacity.