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Located in East Africa, Uganda is one of the most economically deprived countries that is likely to be dramatically affected by climate change. Over 50% of Ugandan families live in single-roomed overcrowded properties and over 60% of the country’s urban population live in slums. Moreover, the gradual shift towards relatively modern and low thermal resistance building materials, in addition to imminent thermal discomfort due to global warming, may considerably affect the health and wellbeing of low-income people, the majority of whom live in low quality homes with very little or no access to basic amenities. This paper evaluates the effects of various construction methods as well as refurbishment strategies on thermal comfort in low-income houses in Uganda. It is aimed at helping low-income populations adapt to climate changes by developing simple, effective and affordable refurbishment strategies that could easily be applied to existing buildings. Dynamic thermal simulations are conducted in EnergyPlus. The adaptive model defined in BS EN 15251 and CIBSE TM52 is used to evaluate the risk and extent of thermal discomfort. Roofing methods/materials are found to be the key factor in reducing/increasing the risk of overheating. According to the results, roof insulation, painting the roof with low solar absorptance materials and inclusion of false ceilings are, respectively, the most effective and practical refurbishment strategies in terms of improving thermal comfort in low-income houses in Uganda. All refurbishment strategies helped to pass Criterion 3 of CIBSE TM52, as an indicator of “future climate scenarios”, making low-income houses/populations more climate resilient.

Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) can provide ancillary services to the power network by aiding existing frequency control mechanisms. TCLs are, however, characterized by an intrinsic limit cycle behavior which raises the risk that these could synchronize when coupled with the frequency dynamics of the power grid, i.e. simultaneously switch, inducing persistent and possibly catastrophic power oscillations. To address this problem, schemes with a randomized response time in their control policy have been proposed in the literature. However, such schemes introduce delays in the response of TCLs to frequency feedback that may limit their ability to provide fast support at urgencies. In this paper, we present a deterministic control mechanism for TCLs such that those switch when prescribed frequency thresholds are exceeded in order to provide ancillary services to the power network. For the considered scheme, we provide analytic conditions which ensure that synchronization is avoided. In particular, we show that as the number of loads tends to infinity, there exist arbitrarily long time intervals where the frequency deviations are arbitrarily small. Our analytical results are verified with simulations on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system, which demonstrate that the proposed scheme offers improved frequency response compared to conventional implementations. 10 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

From the British debate on the depletion of coal in 1865 to the First World Power Conference held in London in 1924, scientists, engineers, industrialists, and politicians produced new interpretations of the past, present, and future in terms of the mobilisation of energy resources. This thesis identifies an emerging ‘energy developmentalism’, which called for maximising energy use to maintain or improve a nation’s place in international competition. Energy developmentalism was not a marginal worldview confined to ‘energeticists’, but a coherent set of claims, measurements, and arguments that informed energy governance on an international scale. Rather than focusing on a single resource, energy developmentalism applied a unified schema to all energy sources, including those like solar and tidal energy that were still mostly theoretical. Drawing on sources from across Europe, while staying grounded in political changes in Britain and France, makes it possible to understand how a general formula for transforming raw materials with maximum efficiency was applied differently depending on specific political contexts. This period saw the articulation of problems like the depletion of resources, the difference between renewable and nonrenewable energy, the intermittency of renewables, the overreliance on a single source of energy, and the centrality of energy to modern economies – problems that are often associated with later periods. Scientific measurements of efficiency, horsepower, and kilowatts became operators in political debates centred on questions of national standing and progress. Even as oil became increasingly important in the world economy, the delegates at the First World Power Conference transformed a vision of a renewable energy future into one of a general expansion of energy consumption as the basis of progress. In so doing, they downplayed the continued importance of fossil fuels and equated ‘conservation’ with the fullest possible use of all energy sources, renewable or not.

Positive Energy Districts (PED) are areas within cities that generate more renewable energy than they consume, contributing to cities’ energy system transformation toward carbon neutrality. Since PED is a novel concept, the implementation is very challenging. Within the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action, which offers an open space for collaboration among scientists across Europe (and beyond), this paper asks what the needs for supporting the implementation of PEDs are. To answer this, it draws on Delphi process (expert reviews) as the main method alongside the literature review and also uses surveys as supplementary methods to identify the main challenges for developing PEDs. Initial findings reveal seven interacting topics that later were ranked as highest to the lowest as the following: governance, incentive, social, process, market, technology and context. These are interrelated and interdependent, implying that none can be considered in isolation of the others and cannot be left out in order to ensure the successful development of PEDs. The resources that are needed to address these challenges are a common need for systematic understanding of the processes behind them, as well as cross-disciplinary models and protocols to manage the complexity of developing PEDs. The results can be the basis for devising the conceptual framework on the development of new PED guides and tools.

AbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.