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AbstractTransition to a bio‐based economy will create new demand for biomass, e.g. the increasing use of bioenergy, but the impacts on existing markets are unclear. Furthermore, there is a growing public concern on the sustainability of biomass. This study proposes a methodological framework for mapping national biomass flows based on domestic production‐consumption and cross‐border trade, and respective share of sustainably‐certified biomass. A case study was performed on the Netherlands for 2010‐2011, focusing on three categories: (i) woody biomass, (ii) oils and fats, and (iii) carbohydrates. Between 2010‐2011 few major shifts were found, besides the increasing biofuel production. The share of sustainably‐certified feedstock is growing in many categories. Woody biomass used for energy amounted to 3.45 MT, including 1.3 MT imported wood pellets ( >85% certified). About 0.6 MT of oils and fats and 1.2 MT (estimation) of carbohydrates were used for biofuel production. It is assumed that only certified materials were used for biofuel production. For non‐energy purpose, more than 50% of woody biomass used was either certified or derived from recycled streams. Certified oils has entered the Dutch food sector since 2011, accounted for 7% of total vegetable oils consumption. It is expected that carbohydrates will also be certified in the near future. Methodological challenges encountered are: inconsistency in data definitions, lack of coherent cross‐sectorial reporting systems, low reliability of bilateral trade statistics, lack of transparency in biomass supply chains, and disparity in sustainability requirements. The methodology may be expanded for future projection in different scenarios. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

AbstractTransition to a bio‐based economy will create new demand for biomass, e.g. the increasing use of bioenergy, but the impacts on existing markets are unclear. Furthermore, there is a growing public concern on the sustainability of biomass. This study proposes a methodological framework for mapping national biomass flows based on domestic production‐consumption and cross‐border trade, and respective share of sustainably‐certified biomass. A case study was performed on the Netherlands for 2010‐2011, focusing on three categories: (i) woody biomass, (ii) oils and fats, and (iii) carbohydrates. Between 2010‐2011 few major shifts were found, besides the increasing biofuel production. The share of sustainably‐certified feedstock is growing in many categories. Woody biomass used for energy amounted to 3.45 MT, including 1.3 MT imported wood pellets ( >85% certified). About 0.6 MT of oils and fats and 1.2 MT (estimation) of carbohydrates were used for biofuel production. It is assumed that only certified materials were used for biofuel production. For non‐energy purpose, more than 50% of woody biomass used was either certified or derived from recycled streams. Certified oils has entered the Dutch food sector since 2011, accounted for 7% of total vegetable oils consumption. It is expected that carbohydrates will also be certified in the near future. Methodological challenges encountered are: inconsistency in data definitions, lack of coherent cross‐sectorial reporting systems, low reliability of bilateral trade statistics, lack of transparency in biomass supply chains, and disparity in sustainability requirements. The methodology may be expanded for future projection in different scenarios. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro- and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues—along with several others—remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches—dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.

Extreme summer droughts are expected to occur more often in the future in NW Europe due to climate change. These droughts might accelerate the rate of peat oxidation in drained peat areas, with impacts on soil subsidence, GHG emission and water quality. This study aimed at providing more insight in the oxidation of deep peat layers that had not previously been exposed to air, the so-called secondary decomposition. We incubated two types of peat (eutrophic and oligotrophic), sampled from permanently anoxic peat layers from nature reserves and agricultural peat meadows. Peat samples were incubated for thirteen weeks under anoxic conditions, but were exposed to air for one to eight weeks. The production of CO2 and CH4 was quantified as a proxy for decomposition; concentrations of soluble nutrients and phenolic compounds were also measured. The results showed that oxygenation led to a steep increase in the rate of decomposition, indicated by higher carbon loss rates during and after oxygenation compared to non-oxygenated samples. Carbon loss rates increased more for eutrophic peat (agricultural area: 352%, nature reserve: 182%) than for oligotrophic peat (83% and 159% respectively). Most peat samples investigated showed higher post-oxygenation CO2 and/or CH4 production compared to the anoxic pre-oxygenation period. This indicates that oxygenation stimulates decomposition, even after anoxic conditions have returned. Contrary to the enzymic latch theory, no effects of oxygenation on the concentrations of soluble or condensed phenolic compounds were detected. Soluble nutrient concentrations did not change due to oxygenation either. Noteworthy is the occurrence of pyrite mineralization and associated acidification in eutrophic peat. Thus, low summer water levels, for example due to climate change, should be avoided in order to limit exceptionally high decomposition rates and associated problems such as increasing subsidence rates, greenhouse gas emission, sulfate release and acidification.

Extreme summer droughts are expected to occur more often in the future in NW Europe due to climate change. These droughts might accelerate the rate of peat oxidation in drained peat areas, with impacts on soil subsidence, GHG emission and water quality. This study aimed at providing more insight in the oxidation of deep peat layers that had not previously been exposed to air, the so-called secondary decomposition. We incubated two types of peat (eutrophic and oligotrophic), sampled from permanently anoxic peat layers from nature reserves and agricultural peat meadows. Peat samples were incubated for thirteen weeks under anoxic conditions, but were exposed to air for one to eight weeks. The production of CO2 and CH4 was quantified as a proxy for decomposition; concentrations of soluble nutrients and phenolic compounds were also measured. The results showed that oxygenation led to a steep increase in the rate of decomposition, indicated by higher carbon loss rates during and after oxygenation compared to non-oxygenated samples. Carbon loss rates increased more for eutrophic peat (agricultural area: 352%, nature reserve: 182%) than for oligotrophic peat (83% and 159% respectively). Most peat samples investigated showed higher post-oxygenation CO2 and/or CH4 production compared to the anoxic pre-oxygenation period. This indicates that oxygenation stimulates decomposition, even after anoxic conditions have returned. Contrary to the enzymic latch theory, no effects of oxygenation on the concentrations of soluble or condensed phenolic compounds were detected. Soluble nutrient concentrations did not change due to oxygenation either. Noteworthy is the occurrence of pyrite mineralization and associated acidification in eutrophic peat. Thus, low summer water levels, for example due to climate change, should be avoided in order to limit exceptionally high decomposition rates and associated problems such as increasing subsidence rates, greenhouse gas emission, sulfate release and acidification.

In industrialized countries, large amounts of mineral wastes are produced. They are re-used in various ways, particularly in road and earth constructions, substituting primary resources such as gravel. However, they may also contain pollutants, such as heavy metals, which may be leached to the groundwater. The toxic impacts of these emissions are so far often neglected within Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of products or waste treatment services and thus, potentially large environmental impacts are currently missed. This study aims at closing this gap by assessing the ecotoxic impacts of heavy metal leaching from industrial mineral wastes in road and earth constructions. The flows of metals such as Sb, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, V and Zn originating from three typical constructions to the environment are quantified, their fate in the environment is assessed and potential ecotoxic effects evaluated. For our reference country, Germany, the industrial wastes that are applied as Granular Secondary Construction Material (GSCM) carry more than 45,000 t of diverse heavy metals per year. Depending on the material quality and construction type applied, up to 150 t of heavy metals may leach to the environment within the first 100 years after construction. Heavy metal retardation in subsoil can potentially reduce the fate to groundwater by up to 100%. One major challenge of integrating leaching from constructions into macro-scale LCA frameworks is the high variability in micro-scale technical and geographical factors, such as material qualities, construction types and soil types. In our work, we consider a broad range of parameter values in the modeling of leaching and fate. This allows distinguishing between the impacts of various road constructions, as well as sites with different soil properties. The findings of this study promote the quantitative consideration of environmental impacts of long-term leaching in Life Cycle Assessment, complementing site-specific risk assessment, for the design of waste management strategies, particularly in the construction sector.

In industrialized countries, large amounts of mineral wastes are produced. They are re-used in various ways, particularly in road and earth constructions, substituting primary resources such as gravel. However, they may also contain pollutants, such as heavy metals, which may be leached to the groundwater. The toxic impacts of these emissions are so far often neglected within Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of products or waste treatment services and thus, potentially large environmental impacts are currently missed. This study aims at closing this gap by assessing the ecotoxic impacts of heavy metal leaching from industrial mineral wastes in road and earth constructions. The flows of metals such as Sb, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, V and Zn originating from three typical constructions to the environment are quantified, their fate in the environment is assessed and potential ecotoxic effects evaluated. For our reference country, Germany, the industrial wastes that are applied as Granular Secondary Construction Material (GSCM) carry more than 45,000 t of diverse heavy metals per year. Depending on the material quality and construction type applied, up to 150 t of heavy metals may leach to the environment within the first 100 years after construction. Heavy metal retardation in subsoil can potentially reduce the fate to groundwater by up to 100%. One major challenge of integrating leaching from constructions into macro-scale LCA frameworks is the high variability in micro-scale technical and geographical factors, such as material qualities, construction types and soil types. In our work, we consider a broad range of parameter values in the modeling of leaching and fate. This allows distinguishing between the impacts of various road constructions, as well as sites with different soil properties. The findings of this study promote the quantitative consideration of environmental impacts of long-term leaching in Life Cycle Assessment, complementing site-specific risk assessment, for the design of waste management strategies, particularly in the construction sector.