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A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

Following the debate on the implications of international trade for global climate policy, this paper introduces the topic of the economic benefits from trade obtained by exporting countries in relation to the emissions generated in the production of exports. In 2008, 24% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 20% of the employment around the world were linked to international trade. China “exported” 30% of emissions and hosted 37.5% of the jobs generated by trade worldwide. The European Union and the United States of America were the destination of 25% and 18.4% of the GHG emissions embodied in trade. The imports of these two regions contributed to the creation of 45% of the employment generated by international trade. This paper proposes the idea of including trade issues in international climate negotiations, taking into account not only the environmental burden generated by developed countries when displacing emissions to developing countries through their imports, but also the economic benefits of developing countries producing the goods exported to developed countries.

Abstract This paper explores the use of fuelwood in Third World cities. The importance of fuelwood and the factors which condition its use in cities are set out and three fuelwood problems are identified: the cost to urban consumers, fuel supply security and the impact of urban fuelwood markets on rural areas. Urban fuelwood interventions are evaluated, with four categories identified: interventions in marketing, conservation, increased, wood production and fuel-switching. Of these, fuel-switching by improved supply systems and increased production from smallholders and better management of natural woodlands appear to have the greatest potential. The need for flexibility/community participation in planning is stressed.

The dramatically increasing population of Asia necessitates equally as dramatic increase in energy supply to meet demand. Rapidly increasing energy demand is a major concern for Asian countries because the increase in demand is being met through the increased use of fossil fuel supply, largely domestic coal and imported fuel. Renewable energy supply presents a lower emission pathway that could be a viable option for steering off the higher emissions path. However, several market, economic, institutional, technical, and socio-cultural barriers hinder countries in moving from high to low emission pathway. Following a discussion on the rising demand for energy in Asia and the prospects of partly satisfying it with renewable energy, we outline the reasons for government support to tackle the barriers for widespread diffusion of grid-based renewable energy. Additionally, we also discuss workable models for strategic government intervention to support diffusion of grid-based renewable energy in Asia.

In a world that increasingly invites private actors to address social needs, there has been a rise of social enterprises in a variety of sectors, including new and renewable energy. As of yet, little research has focused on how these enterprises interact with government policy in low- and middle-income countries. This research specifically explores how social enterprises operating in rural India with decentralized renewable energy solutions seek to access government support, and what strategies they adopt to engage with the government. An inductive theory-building approach was adopted to explore this and advance current knowledge in the boundaries of social entrepreneurship and policy. We propose ‘Engagement’ and ‘Disengagement’ as the two strategies used by social enterprises in this context in accessing government support and policy. ‘Engagement’ is a strategy comprising of the tactics: (a) Leveraging Policy, (b) Building and Leveraging Relationships, (c) Lobbying, and (d) Monitoring. ‘Disengagement’ is a strategy comprising of the tactics: (a) Avoiding Government Presence, and (b) Disengagement from Policy.

Abstract Project scale is often critical in LDC hydro substitution. Large hydro schemes have low costs and wide development options but they are difficult to implement because they depend on external capital and markets. Although small hydro schemes are more easily implemented their costs are closer to the margin. Sustained high inflation eroded the potential benefits that the 1973–1974 oil shock gave to large hydro. The 1979 shock restored the competitive potential of larger hydro, but the subsequent recession narrowed its prospective market and made smaller hydro schemes more prudent. Large-scale hydro's marketing problem can be reduced through regional cooperation, but presents formidable political problems. Guianese experience suggests that in such difficult circumstances, multi-stage large hydro projects have advantages over single-stage ones.

Abstract This paper presents the life cycle environmental impacts and economic costs of the passenger transport sector in Nigeria for 2003–2030. Four scenarios are considered: business as usual (BAU); increased use of public transport (buses) at the expense of cars (LOWCAR) and motorcycles (LOWMC), respectively; and high economic growth with increased car ownership and decline of public transport (HICAR). The findings show that for the BAU scenario the life cycle environmental impacts double over the period, despite the assumption of increased fuel and vehicle efficiency of 35% over time. The total fuel costs at the sectoral level increase three times, from US$3.4 billion/yr in 2003 to US$9.7 billion in 2030. Increasing the use of buses would reduce the environmental impacts on average by 15–20% compared to BAU; at the same time, the total fuel costs would be 25–30% lower. If the use of cars grows much faster due to a high economic growth as in HICAR, the environmental impacts and fuel costs would increase by 16% and 26%, respectively. These results demonstrate clearly that future transport policy in Nigeria should promote and incentivise public (bus) transport as a much more environmentally and economically sustainable option than transport by cars and motorcycles.

Abstract This paper reviews the literature on the policies of aid donors towards the performance of the electricity sector in developing countries. Much of the donor community is currently reassessing its policies in the light of shifting priorities and the difficulties of ensuring the sustainability of individual power sector investments within a difficult macroeconomic environment. Particular attention is given to examining the policies of the World Bank. In addition to being the major source of finance for power sector development in the Third World, the World Bank in effect sets the intellectual agenda for thinking about power sector development and is also the most sustained contributor to that agenda. The paper describes changes in donor policy from an emphasis on individual capital projects to a concern with the performance of the whole sector. It examines how the policy agenda is influenced by competing explanations for the current decline in the performance of many power utilities, and how the current emphasis on efficiency is influenced by the current need to respond to acute capital shortages, and the growing concern with environmental issues. The paper concludes with a discussion of a new focus for aid policies that fully recognizes the role of the power sector in the wider economy, and which stresses the development of local human capabilities over the long term, rather than the short-term expedients of the project cycle which emphasizes the short term, the sale of hardware, and the use of expatriate staff.