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As food insecurity grows globally, foresight planning for sustainable food systems has become critical. Here we argue that history—through detailed data, case studies and methodologies—can profoundly enhance the robustness of scenario planning. By examining cases in Mozambique, Bangladesh and Holland, we illustrate how historical insights can guide interventions on local, national and transnational scales, helping to avoid unintended consequences and building resilience into future food systems.

As food insecurity grows globally, foresight planning for sustainable food systems has become critical. Here we argue that history—through detailed data, case studies and methodologies—can profoundly enhance the robustness of scenario planning. By examining cases in Mozambique, Bangladesh and Holland, we illustrate how historical insights can guide interventions on local, national and transnational scales, helping to avoid unintended consequences and building resilience into future food systems.

A one-pot fuel cell for specific, enzyme-catalysed organic synthesis, with continuous monitoring of rate and reaction progress, combines an electrode catalysing rapid, reversible and diffusion-controlled interconversion of NADP+ and NADPH with a Pt electrode catalysing 2H+/H2 interconversion.

A one-pot fuel cell for specific, enzyme-catalysed organic synthesis, with continuous monitoring of rate and reaction progress, combines an electrode catalysing rapid, reversible and diffusion-controlled interconversion of NADP+ and NADPH with a Pt electrode catalysing 2H+/H2 interconversion.

Abstract While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand is of crucial importance. Moreover, developed countries may induce environmental stress beyond their own borders, for instance through extensive imports of bioenergy. In this paper, Germany serves as an example of a developed country with ambitious energy transformation targets. Results show that in particular, the politically-driven aspiration for more organic farming in Germany results in a higher import quota of biomass, especially biofuels. These imports translate into land demand, which will exceed the area available in Germany for bioenergy by a factor of 3–6.5 by 2050. As this will likely bring about land stress in the respective exporting countries, this effect of the German energy transformation ought to be limited as much as possible. In contrast, domestic water demand for the German energy system is expected to decrease by over 80% through 2050 due to declining numbers of fossil-fuelled power plants. However, possible future irrigation needs for bioenergy may reduce or even counterbalance this decreasing effect. In addition, energy policy targets specific to the transport sector show a high sensitivity to biomass imports. In particular, the sector-specific target for greenhouse gas reductions will seemingly promote biomass imports, leading to the above-described challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.

Abstract While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand is of crucial importance. Moreover, developed countries may induce environmental stress beyond their own borders, for instance through extensive imports of bioenergy. In this paper, Germany serves as an example of a developed country with ambitious energy transformation targets. Results show that in particular, the politically-driven aspiration for more organic farming in Germany results in a higher import quota of biomass, especially biofuels. These imports translate into land demand, which will exceed the area available in Germany for bioenergy by a factor of 3–6.5 by 2050. As this will likely bring about land stress in the respective exporting countries, this effect of the German energy transformation ought to be limited as much as possible. In contrast, domestic water demand for the German energy system is expected to decrease by over 80% through 2050 due to declining numbers of fossil-fuelled power plants. However, possible future irrigation needs for bioenergy may reduce or even counterbalance this decreasing effect. In addition, energy policy targets specific to the transport sector show a high sensitivity to biomass imports. In particular, the sector-specific target for greenhouse gas reductions will seemingly promote biomass imports, leading to the above-described challenges in the pursuit of sustainability.