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Here, we investigate how stochasticity and age-dependence in energy dynamics influence maternal allocation in iteroparous females. We develop a state-dependent model to calculate the optimal maternal allocation strategy with respect to maternal age and energy reserves, focusing on allocation in a single offspring at a time. We introduce stochasticity in energetic costs– in terms of the amount of energy required to forage successfully and individual differences in metabolism – and in feeding success. We systematically assess how allocation is influenced by age-dependence in energetic costs, feeding success, energy intake per successful feeding attempt, and environmentally-driven mortality. First, using stochastic dynamic programming, we calculate the optimal amount of reserves M that mothers allocate to each offspring depending on their own reserves R and age A. The optimal life history strategy is then the set of allocation decisions M(R, A) over the whole lifespan which maximizes the total reproductive success of distant descendants. Second, we simulated the life histories of 1000 mothers following the optimisation strategy and the reserves at the start of adulthood R1, the distribution of which was determined, the distribution of which was determined using an iterative procedure as described . For each individual, we calculated maternal allocation Mt, maternal reserves Rt, and relative allocation Mt⁄Rt at each time period t. The relative allocation helps us to understand how resources are partitioned between mother and offspring. Third, we consider how the optimal strategy varies when there is age-dependence in resource acquisition, energetic costs and survival. Specifically, we include varying scenarios with an age-dependent increase or a decrease with age in energetic costs (c_t), feeding success (q_t), energy intake per successful feeding attempt (y_t), and environmentally-driven extrinsic mortality rate (d_t) (Table 2). We consider the age-dependence of parameters one at a time or in pairs, altering the slope, intercept, or asymptote of the age-dependence (linear or asymptotic function). Our aim is to identify whether the observed reproductive senescence can arise from optimal maternal allocation. As such, we do not impose a decline in selection in later life as all offspring are equally valuable at all ages (for a given maternal allocation), and there are no mutations. For each scenario, we run the backward iteration process with these age-dependent functions, obtain the allocation strategy, and simulate the life history of 1000 individuals based on the novel strategy. We then fit quadratic and linear models to the reproduction of these 1000 individuals using the lme function, nlme package in R. For these models, the response variable is the maternal allocation Mt and explanatory variables are the time period t and t2 (for the quadratic fit only), with individual identity as a random term. We use likelihood ratio tests to compare linear and quadratic models using the anova function (package nlme) with the maximum-likelihood method. If the comparison is significant (p-value <0.05), we considered the quadratic model to have a better fit, otherwise the linear model is considered more parsimonious. We were particularly interested in identifying scenarios where the fit was quadratic with a negative quadratic term. For each scenario, the pseudo R2 conditional value (proportion of variance explained by the fixed and random terms, accounting for individual identity) is calculated to assess the goodness-of-fit of the lme model, on a scale from 0 to 1, using the “r.squared” function, package gabtool. All calculations and coding are done in R. Iteroparous parents face a trade-off between allocating current resources to reproduction versus maximizing survival to produce further offspring. Optimal allocation varies across age, and follows a hump-shaped pattern across diverse taxa, including mammals, birds and invertebrates. This non-linear allocation pattern lacks a general theoretical explanation, potentially because most studies focus on offspring number rather than quality and do not incorporate uncertainty or age-dependence in energy intake or costs. Here, we develop a life history model of maternal allocation in iteroparous animals. We identify the optimal allocation strategy in response to stochasticity when energetic costs, feeding success, energy intake, and environmentally-driven mortality risk are age-dependent. As a case study, we use tsetse, a viviparous insect that produces one offspring per reproductive attempt and relies on an uncertain food supply of vertebrate blood. Diverse scenarios generate a hump-shaped allocation: when energetic costs and energy intake increase with age; and also when energy intake decreases, and energetic costs increase or decrease. Feeding success and mortality risk have little influence on age-dependence in allocation. We conclude that ubiquitous evidence for age-dependence in these influential traits can explain the prevalence of non-linear maternal allocation across diverse taxonomic groups.

Abstract: Five groups of NMRI mice were fed ethanol or sucrose in a nutritionally adequate liquid diet for 9 days. The dietary fat consisted of olive oil with the fatty acid composition 18:1 77%, 18:2 10%, 18:0 and 16:0 12%. The ethanol treated groups received 5% w/v ethanol (E) or isocaloric sucrose (S). Two groups (S‐ and E‐) received the diet without supplement. In two groups (S+ and E +) 7% of the fat was exchanged for arachidonic acid (20:4). In a fifth group (IE +) treated with ethanol and arachidonic acid the diet also contained indomethacin (10 mg/1). The mean intake of ethanol was about 20 g/kg/day. After 9 days animals were killed and liver lipids analyzed after Folch extraction. The post mortem accumulation of prostaglandin E2 in the kidney was measured by GC‐MS. Dietary 20:4 was found to protect mice against fatty liver caused both by a high fat diet alone and in combination with ethanol. The liver triglycerides were 30.7 + 4.3 (S ‐), 46.1+6.9 (E ‐), 6.8 + 0.4 (S +) and 19.4 ±1.8 (E +). Prostaglandin levels in the kidney were depressed by ethanol treatment. Indomethacin gave variable degrees of PG synthesis inhibition. The degree of liver triglyceride accumulation in the IE+ group was inversely propotional to the degree of PG synthesis. The data suggest a role for liver 20:4 cyclooxyganase metabolites in fatty liver caused by high fat diets and ethanol.

Estimating how much is appropriate to consume can be difficult, especially for foods presented in multiple units, those with ambiguous energy content and for snacks. This study tested the hypothesis that the number of units (single vs. multi-unit), meal type and food energy density disrupts accurate estimates of portion size. Thirty-two healthy weight men and women attended the laboratory on 3 separate occasions to assess the number of portions contained in 33 foods or beverages of varying energy density (1.7-26.8 kJ/g). Items included 12 multi-unit and 21 single unit foods; 13 were labelled "meal", 4 "drink" and 16 "snack". Departures in portion estimates from reference amounts were analysed with negative binomial regression. Overall participants tended to underestimate the number of portions displayed. Males showed greater errors in estimation than females (p=0.01). Single unit foods and those labelled as 'meal' or 'beverage' were estimated with greater error than multi-unit and 'snack' foods (p=0.02 and p<0.001 respectively). The number of portions of high energy density foods was overestimated while the number of portions of beverages and medium energy density foods were underestimated by 30-46%. In conclusion, participants tended to underestimate the reference portion size for a range of food and beverages, especially single unit foods and foods of low energy density and, unexpectedly, overestimated the reference portion of high energy density items. There is a need for better consumer education of appropriate portion sizes to aid adherence to a healthy diet.

Drought threatens tropical rainforests over seasonal to decadal timescales, but the drivers of tree mortality following drought remain poorly understood. It has been suggested that reduced availability of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) critically increases mortality risk through insufficient carbon supply to metabolism ('carbon starvation'). However, little is known about how NSC stores are affected by drought, especially over the long term, and whether they are more important than hydraulic processes in determining drought-induced mortality. Using data from the world's longest-running experimental drought study in tropical rainforest (in the Brazilian Amazon), we test whether carbon starvation or deterioration of the water-conducting pathways from soil to leaf trigger tree mortality. Biomass loss from mortality in the experimentally droughted forest increased substantially after >10 years of reduced soil moisture availability. The mortality signal was dominated by the death of large trees, which were at a much greater risk of hydraulic deterioration than smaller trees. However, we find no evidence that the droughted trees suffered carbon starvation, as their NSC concentrations were similar to those of non-droughted trees, and growth rates did not decline in either living or dying trees. Our results indicate that hydraulics, rather than carbon starvation, triggers tree death from drought in tropical rainforest.

Improved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency of production has been proposed as one of the biggest potential advantages of cultured meat over conventional livestock production systems. Comparisons with beef are typically highlighted, as it is a highly emissions intensive food product. In this study we present a more rigorous comparison of the potential climate impacts of cultured meat and cattle production than has previously been made. Warming impacts are evaluated using a simple climate model that simulates the different behaviours of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than relying on carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) metrics. We compare the temperature impact of beef cattle and cultured meat production at all times to 1000 years in the future, using four synthetic meat GHG footprints currently available in the literature and three different beef production systems studied in an earlier climate modelling paper. Cattle systems are associated with the production of all three GHGs above, including significant emissions of CH4, while cultured meat emissions are almost entirely CO2 from energy generation. Under continuous high global consumption, cultured meat results in less warming than cattle initially, but this gap narrows in the long term and in some cases cattle production causes far less warming, as CH4 emissions do not accumulate, unlike CO2. We then model a decline in meat consumption to more sustainable levels following high consumption, and show that although cattle systems generally result in greater peak warming than cultured meat, the warming effect declines and stabilises under the new emission rates of cattle systems, while the CO2 based warming from cultured meat persists and accumulates even under reduced consumption, again overtaking cattle production in some scenarios. We conclude that cultured meat is not prima facie climatically superior to cattle production; its relative impact instead depends on the availability of decarbonised energy generation and the specific production systems that are realised.

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.