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Abstract Climate models predict a strengthening contrast between wet and dry regions in the tropics and subtropics (30 °S–30 °N), and data from the latest model intercomparison project (CMIP6) support this expectation. Rainfall in ascending regions increases, and in descending regions decreases in climate models, reanalyses, and observational data. This strengthening contrast can be captured by tracking the rainfall change each month in the wettest and driest third of the tropics and subtropics combined. Since wet and dry regions are selected individually every month for each model ensemble member, and the observations, this analysis is largely unaffected by biases in location of precipitation features. Blended satellite and in situ data from 1988–2019 support the CMIP6-model-simulated tendency of sharpening contrasts between wet and dry regions, with rainfall in wet regions increasing substantially opposed by a slight decrease in dry regions. We detect the effect of external forcings on tropical and subtropical observed precipitation in wet and dry regions combined, and attribute this change for the first time to anthropogenic and natural forcings separately. Our results show that most of the observed change has been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Natural forcings also contribute, following the drop in wet-region precipitation after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, while anthropogenic aerosol effects show only weak trends in tropic-wide wet and dry regions consistent with flat global aerosol forcing over the analysis period. The observed response to external forcing is significantly larger (p > 0.95) than the multi-model mean simulated response. As expected from climate models, the observed signal strengthens further when focusing on the wet tail of spatial distributions in both models and data.

This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms.

Abstract More than 90% of the Earth’s energy imbalance is stored by the ocean. While previous studies have shown that changes in the ocean warming are detectable and distinct from internal variability of the climate system, an estimate of separate contributions by natural and individual anthropogenic forcings (such as greenhouse gases and aerosols) remains outstanding. Here we investigate anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to past ocean warming, and estimate their contributions to future sea level rise by the year 2100. By applying detection and attribution framework (regularized optimal fingerprinting), we show that ocean warming in the historical period is detectable and attributable to contributions from the aggregate anthropogenic forcing as well as greenhouse gas forcing alone. We also discuss the role of natural forcing on the ocean volume-averaged temperature and examine the impact of volcanic activity from the three main volcanoes occurring in the historical period 1955–2012. Our results suggest that estimated anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to ocean warming are consistent with observations, and observationally-constrained future thermosteric sea level rise projections support the central and lower part of the multi-model mean projection range distribution.

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event.

Abstract Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global risk of extreme heat with humidity on health, we calculate indicators of heat stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Wet-Bulb Temperature, from the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how and where different levels of heat stress hazards will change, from severe to deadly, and how results are sensitive to the choice of the index used. We evaluate this risk at country-level and use population and GDP | PPP growth scenario to estimate the vulnerability of each nation. Consistent with previous studies, we find that South and East Asia, and the Middle-East, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards, and that this exposure increases by 20%–60% with global mean temperature change from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. However, we also find substantial increases in heat health risk for some vulnerable countries with less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, and Central and South America. For these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population could be exposed to severe heat stress each year on average, independent of the index used. For global warming of 3∘, European countries and the USA will also be exposed several times per year to conditions with daily mean heat stress level equal to the maximum heat stress of the 2003 heat wave.

AbstractThis review article provides a synthesis and perspective on how weather and climate extreme events can play a role in influencing tipping elements and triggering tipping points in the Earth System. An example of a potential critical global tipping point, induced by climate extremes in an increasingly warmer climate, is Amazon rainforest dieback that could be driven by regional increases in droughts and exacerbated by fires, in addition to deforestation. A tipping element associated with the boreal forest might also be vulnerable to heat, drought and fire. An oceanic example is the potential collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to extreme variability in freshwater inputs, while marine heatwaves and high acidity extremes can lead to coral reef collapse. Extreme heat events may furthermore play an important role in ice sheet, glacier and permafrost stability. Regional severe extreme events could also lead to tipping in ecosystems, as well as in human systems, in response to climate drivers. However, substantial scientific uncertainty remains on mechanistic links between extreme events and tipping points. Earth observations are of high relevance to evaluate and constrain those links between extreme events and tipping elements, by determining conditions leading to delayed recovery with a potential for tipping in the atmosphere, on land, in vegetation, and in the ocean. In the subsurface ocean, there is a lack of consistent, synoptic and high frequency observations of changes in both ocean physics and biogeochemistry. This review article shows the importance of considering the interface between extreme events and tipping points, two topics usually addressed in isolation, and the need for continued monitoring to observe early warning signs and to evaluate Earth system response to extreme events as well as improving model skill in simulating extremes, compound extremes and tipping elements.

Abstract. In this study we detect and quantify changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large observation-based gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950–2018. Several statistical models are considered, each of which analyses TXx using a generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution with the GEV parameters varying smoothly over space. In contrast to several previous studies which fit independent GEV models at the grid-box level, our models pull information from neighbouring grid boxes for more efficient parameter estimation. The GEV location and scale parameters are allowed to vary in time using the log of atmospheric CO2 as a covariate. Changes are detected most strongly in the GEV location parameter, with the TXx distributions generally shifting towards hotter temperatures. Averaged across our spatial domain, the 100-year return level of TXx based on the 2018 climate is approximately 2 ∘C (95 % confidence interval of [2.03,2.12] ∘C) hotter than that based on the 1950 climate. Moreover, averaged across our spatial domain, the 100-year return level of TXx based on the 1950 climate corresponds approximately to a 6-year return level in the 2018 climate.