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We address the question of how ozone and long‐lived greenhouse gas changes impact the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). Using reanalyses and results from the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation 2 (CCMVal‐2) initiative, we calculate seasonal NAM indices from geopotential height for winter and spring. From these, we determine the strength of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the model simulations and the reanalyses. For both seasons, we find a large spread in the ability of models to represent the vertical coherence of the NAM, although most models are within the 95% confidence interval. In winter, many models underestimate the vertical coherence derived from the reanalyses. Some models exhibit substantial differences in vertical coherence between simulations driven with modeled and observed ocean conditions. In spring, in the simulations using modeled ocean conditions, models with poorer horizontal or vertical resolution tend to underestimate the vertical coupling, and vice versa for models with better resolution. Accounting for model deficits in producing an appropriate troposphere‐stratosphere coupling, we show significant correlations of the NAM in winter with three indices representing the anthropogenic impact. Analysis of cross‐correlations between these indices suggests that increasing CO2 is the main reason for these correlations in this season. In the CCMVal‐2 simulations, CO2 increases are associated with a weakening of the NAM in winter. For spring, we show that the dominant effect is chemical ozone depletion leading to a transient strengthening of the NAM, with CO2 changes playing an insignificant role.

AbstractMajor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling.