• Energy Research
• European Commission close
• GB close

ABSTRACTWind power forecasts are useful tools for power load balancing, energy trading and wind farm operations. Long range monthly‐to‐seasonal forecasting allows the prediction of departures from average weather conditions beyond traditional weather forecast timescales, months in advance. However, it has not yet been demonstrated how these forecasts can be optimally transformed to wind power. The predictable part of a seasonal forecast is for longer monthly averages, not daily averages, but to use monthly averages misses information on variability. To investigate, here a model relating average weather conditions to average wind power output was built, based on the relationship between instantaneous wind speed and power production and incorporating fluctuations in air density due to temperature and wind speed variability. Observed monthly average power output from UK stations was used to validate the model and to investigate the optimal temporal resolution for the data used to drive the model. Multiple simulations of wind power were performed based on reanalysis data, making separate simulations based on monthly, daily and sub‐daily averages, using a distribution defined by the mean across the period to incorporate information on variability. Basing the simulation on monthly averages alone is sub‐optimal: using daily average winds gives the highest correlation against observations. No improvement over this is gained by using sub‐daily averages or including temperature variability. This signifies that to transform seasonal forecasts to wind power a compromise must be made between using the daily averages with debatable skill and the more predictable monthly averages, losing information on day‐to‐day variability.

Abstract This paper investigated the cooling performance of a high-efficiency dew-point evaporative cooler with optimised air and water flow arrangement using the combined experimental and numerical simulation method. The experimental results showed that the wet-bulb efficiency of the dew-point evaporative cooler was increased by 29.3% and COP was increased by 34.6%, compared to the existing commercial dew point air cooler of the same capacity. An improved two-dimensional, multi-factor engaged numerical model which can scale up and optimize the size and capacity of the cooler was developed. The numerical predictions agreed well with the experimental results, indicating that the cooling rate of the dew-point evaporative cooler is influenced by the dew-point evaporative cooler structure. The cooling efficiency of the dew-point evaporative cooler with corrugated plates is more than 10% higher than with flat plates and the cooling efficiency of the dew-point evaporative cooler with the actual flow arrangement is only 62%–67% that of a dew-point evaporative cooler with an ideal counter-flow arrangement. The cooling efficiency can be improved by increasing the channel length and the air entrance length, and decreasing the channel width and channel gap within a reasonable range.

District heating is a network of pipes through which heat is delivered from a centralised source. It is expected to play an important role in the decarbonisation of the energy sector in the coming years. In district heating, heat is traditionally generated through fossil fuels, often with combined heat and power (CHP) units. However, increasingly, waste heat is being used as a low carbon alternative, either directly or, for low temperature sources, via a heat pump. The design of district heating often has competing objectives: the need for inexpensive energy and meeting low carbon targets. In addition, the planning of district heating schemes is subject to multiple sources of uncertainty such as variability in heat demand and energy prices. This paper proposes a decision support tool to analyse and compare system designs for district heating under uncertainty using stochastic ordering (dominance). Contrary to traditional uncertainty metrics that provide statistical summaries and impose total ordering, stochastic ordering is a partial ordering and operates with full probability distributions. In our analysis, we apply the orderings in the mean and dispersion to the waste heat recovery problem in Brunswick, Germany.

Alkali activation is a highly active and rapidly developing field of activity in the global research and development community. Commercial-scale deployment of alkali-activated cements and concretes is now proceeding rapidly in multiple nations. This paper reviews the key developments in alkali-activated materials since 2011, with a particular focus on advances in characterisation techniques and structural understanding, binder precursors and activation approaches, durability testing and design, processing, and sustainability. The scientific and engineering developments described in this paper have underpinned the on-going scale-up activities. We also identify important needs for future research and development to support the optimal and appropriate utilisation of alkali activated materials as a component of a sustainable future construction materials industry. The contributions of JLP were supported by the European Research Council 7th Framework Programme, through the Starting Grant “GeopolyConc” (StG-335928), those of C. Shi were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos. U1305243 and 51378196.

Abstract Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are increasingly used to reconstruct mean annual air temperature (MAAT) during the early Paleogene. However, the application of this proxy in coal deposits is limited and brGDGTs have only been detected in immature coals (i.e. lignites). Using samples recovered from Schoningen, Germany (∼48°N palaeolatitude), we provide the first detailed study into the occurrence and distribution of brGDGTs through a sequence of early Eocene lignites and associated interbeds. BrGDGTs are abundant and present in every sample. In comparison to modern studies, changes in vegetation type do not appear to significantly impact brGDGT distributions; however, there are subtle differences between lignites – representing peat-forming environments – and siliciclastic nearshore marine interbed depositional environments. Using the most recent brGDGT temperature calibration (MATmr) developed for soils, we generate the first continental temperature record from central-western continental Europe through the early Eocene. Lignite-derived MAAT estimates range from 23 to 26 °C while those derived from the nearshore marine interbeds exceed 20 °C. These estimates are consistent with other mid-latitude environments and model simulations, indicating enhanced mid-latitude, early Eocene warmth. In the basal part of the section studied, warming is recorded in both the lignites (∼2 °C) and nearshore marine interbeds (∼2–3 °C). This culminates in a long-term temperature maximum, likely including the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Although this long-term warming trend is relatively well established in the marine realm, it has rarely been shown in terrestrial settings. Using a suite of model simulations we show that the magnitude of warming at Schoningen is broadly consistent with a doubling of CO2, in agreement with late Paleocene and early Eocene pCO2 estimates.

Thin (approximately 10 nm) oxide buffer layers grown over lead-halide perovskite device stacks are critical for protecting the perovskite against mechanical and environmental damage. However, the limited perovskite stability restricts the processing methods and temperatures (<=110 C) that can be used to deposit the oxide overlayers, with the latter limiting the electronic properties of the oxides achievable. In this work, we demonstrate an alternative to existing methods that can grow pinhole-free TiOx (x = 2.00+/-0.05) films with the requisite thickness in <1 min without vacuum. This technique is atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition (AP-CVD). The rapid but soft deposition enables growth temperatures of >=180 ��C to be used to coat the perovskite. This is >=70 ��C higher than achievable by current methods and results in more conductive TiOx films, boosting solar cell efficiencies by >2%. Likewise, when AP-CVD SnOx (x ~ 2) is grown on perovskites, there is also minimal damage to the perovskite beneath. The SnOx layer is pinhole-free and conformal, which reduces shunting in devices, and increases steady-state efficiencies from 16.5% (no SnOx) to 19.4% (60 nm SnOx), with fill factors reaching 84%. This work shows AP-CVD to be a versatile technique for growing oxides on thermally-sensitive materials. R.D.R and R.A.J contributed equally. 23 pages. 6 figures