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  • Energy Research
  • 2. Zero hunger
  • 7. Clean energy
  • GB
  • University of Copenhagen

  • Authors: Reinsch, S.; Koller, E.; Sowerby, A.; De Dato, G.; +17 Authors

    The data consists of annual measurements of standing aboveground plant biomass, annual aboveground net primary productivity and annual soil respiration between 1998 and 2012. Data were collected from seven European shrublands that were subject to the climate manipulations drought and warming. Sites were located in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), Denmark ( two sites, DK-B and DK-M), Hungary (HU), Spain (SP) and Italy (IT). All field sites consisted of untreated control plots, plots where the plant canopy air is artificially warmed during night time hours, and plots where rainfall is excluded from the plots at least during the plants growing season. Standing aboveground plant biomass (grams biomass per square metre) was measured in two undisturbed areas within the plots using the pin-point method (UK, DK-M, DK-B), or along a transect (IT, SP, HU, NL). Aboveground net primary productivity was calculated from measurements of standing aboveground plant biomass estimates and litterfall measurements. Soil respiration was measured in pre-installed opaque soil collars bi-weekly, monthly, or in measurement campaigns (SP only). The datasets provided are the basis for the data analysis presented in Reinsch et al. (2017) Shrubland primary production and soil respiration diverge along European climate gradient. Scientific Reports 7:43952 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep43952 Standing biomass was measured using the non-destructive pin-point method to assess aboveground biomass. Measurements were conducted at the state of peak biomass specific for each site. Litterfall was measured annually using litterfall traps. Litter collected in the traps was dried and the weight was measured. Aboveground biomass productivity was estimated as the difference between the measured standing biomass in year x minus the standing biomass measured the previous year. Soil respiration was measured bi-weekly or monthly, or in campaigns (Spain only). It was measured on permanently installed soil collars in treatment plots. The Gaussen Index of Aridity (an index that combines information on rainfall and temperature) was calculated using mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature. The reduction in precipitation and increase in temperature for each site was used to calculate the Gaussen Index for the climate treatments for each site. Data of standing biomass and soil respiration was provided by the site responsible. Data from all sites were collated into one data file for data analysis. A summary data set was combined with information on the Gaussen Index of Aridity Data were then exported from these Excel spreadsheet to .csv files for ingestion into the EIDC.

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    Authors: Hermanus Höfte; Hermanus Höfte; Jonatan U. Fangel; Simon J. McQueen-Mason; +6 Authors

    Significance Bioethanol produced from waste biomass from crops has the potential to provide a sustainable alternative to petroleum-based transportation fuel that does not compete with human food supply. The main obstacle to this approach is the resistance of this biomass to digestion. Thus, expensive energetic pretreatment and high enzyme inputs are needed to increase digestion. In this study, we screened a population of randomly mutated plants for digestibility with the aim of identifying novel factors that impact on this trait. We found a number of mutants with high digestibility and no impairments in growth or fitness. These mutants show a range of alterations in cell-wall composition, and we have mapped and characterized the mutant with the highest increase in digestibility.

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    ProdInra
    Article . 2014
    License: CC BY SA
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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      ProdInra
      Article . 2014
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      Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Miquel Ferrín; Laura Márquez; Henning Petersen; Sandrine Salmon; +14 Authors

    AbstractThe capacity to forecast the effects of climate change on biodiversity largely relies on identifying traits capturing mechanistic relationships with the environment through standardized field experiments distributed across relevant spatial scales. The effects of short‐term experimental manipulations on local communities may overlap with regional climate gradients that have been operating during longer time periods. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are no studies simultaneously assessing such long‐term macroecological drivers with local climate manipulations.We analysed this issue with springtails (Class Collembola), one of the dominant soil fauna groups, in a standardized climate manipulation experiment conducted across six European countries encompassing broad climate gradients. We combined community data (near 20K specimens classified into 102 species) with 22 eco‐morphological traits and reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships to track the evolution of adaptations to live at different soil depths, which is key to cope with desiccation. We then applied joint species distribution models to investigate the combined effect of the regional aridity gradient with the local experimental treatment (drought and warming) over the assembly of springtail communities and tested for significant trait–environment relationships mediating their community‐level responses.Our results show (1) a convergent evolution in all three major collembolan lineages of species adapted to inhabit at different soil strata; (2) a clear signature of aridity selecting traits of more epigeic species at a biogeographical scale and (3) the association of short‐term experimental drought with traits related to more euedaphic life‐forms.The hemiedaphic condition would be the plesiomorphic state for Collembola while the adaptations for an epigeic life would have been secondarily gained. Epigeic springtails are not only more resistant to drought, but also have a higher dispersal capacity that allows them to seek more favourable micro‐habitats after experiencing drier conditions. The observed relative edaphization of the springtail communities after short‐term experimental drought may thus be a transient community response.The disparity between macroecological trends and fast community‐level responses after climate manipulations highlights the need of simultaneously assessing long‐term and short‐term drivers at broad spatial scales to adequately interpret trait–environment relationships and better forecast biodiversity responses to climate change.Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.

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    Functional Ecology
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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      Functional Ecology
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    Authors: Vermeulen, S; Zougmore, R B; Wollenberg, E; Thornton, P; +8 Authors

    To achieve food security for many in low-income and middle-income countries for whom this is already a challenge, especially with the additional complications of climate change, will require early investment to support smallholder farming systems and the associated food systems that supply poor consumers. We need both local and global policy-linked research to accelerate sharing of lessons on institutions, practices and technologies for adaptation and mitigation. This strategy paper briefly outlines how the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) of the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres (CGIAR) is working across research disciplines, organisational mandates, and spatial and temporal levels to assist immediate and longer-term policy actions.

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    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
    Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
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    Authors: S. Acharya; D. Adamová; A. Adler; G. Aglieri Rinella; +196 Authors

    The transverse-momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) spectra and coalescence parameters $B_2$ of (anti)deuterons are measured in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV for the first time in and out of jets. In this measurement, the direction of the leading particle with the highest $p_{\rm T}$ in the event ($p_{\rm T}^{\rm{ lead}} > 5$ GeV/$c$) is used as an approximation for the jet axis. The event is consequently divided into three azimuthal regions and the jet signal is obtained as the difference between the Toward region, that contains jet fragmentation products in addition to the underlying event (UE), and the Transverse region, which is dominated by the UE. The coalescence parameter in the jet is found to be approximately a factor of 10 larger than that in the underlying event. This experimental observation is consistent with the coalescence picture and can be attributed to the smaller average phase-space distance between nucleons inside the jet cone as compared to the underlying event. The results presented in this Letter are compared to predictions from a simple nucleon coalescence model, where the phase space distributions of nucleons are generated using PYTHIA 8 with the Monash 2013 tuning, and to predictions from a deuteron production model based on ordinary nuclear reactions with parametrized energy-dependent cross sections tuned on data. The latter model is implemented in PYTHIA 8.3. Both models reproduce the observed large difference between in-jet and out-of-jet coalescence parameters, although the almost flat trend of the $B^{\rm Jet}_2$ is not reproduced by the models, which instead give a decreasing trend. 18 pages, 2 captioned figures, authors from page 13, published version + fix from erratum, figures at http://alice-publications.web.cern.ch/node/8658

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    Physical Review Letters
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
    Article . 2022
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
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    Authors: Meyfroidt, Patrick; De Bremond, Ariane; Ryan, Casey M.; Archer, Emma; +47 Authors

    Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits—"win–wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.48350/16...
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/gqb...
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.48350/16...
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/gqb...
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    Authors: Castagneto Gissey, Giorgio; Zakeri, Behnam; Dodds, Paul E.; Subkhankulova; +1 Authors

    Abstract The adoption of solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage by end users depends on their economic attractiveness, which is typically assessed with metrics of future cash flow such as Net Present Value (NPV). Yet analyses using NPV typically do not account for the evolution towards low-carbon electricity systems in the short and long term. We show this to be of critical importance for accurately calculating the profitability of these technologies. By linking an energy system model with a power system model, we observe substantial differences between NPV estimates calculated with and without representing potential evolutions of the electricity system. Our results suggest that not accounting for short- and long-run changes in the electricity system could underestimate the NPV of an investment in photovoltaic and storage by around 20%, especially in scenarios with high levels of renewables, moderate flexibility, and high electrification in the energy system. Using system-dependent cash flow metrics can have a major impact on end-users' energy technology profitability.

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    Energy Policy
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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2021
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    Energy Policy
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    Authors: Agrell, Per J.; Bogetoft, Peter;

    District heating, the conversion of primary energy into distributed thermal energy and possible electric energy, is a challenge to regulate. In addition to the ever present asymmetric information in any sufficiently complex activity, some of the inputs for district heating, such as excess process heat, have arbitrary valuation. This study concerns the most developed European district heating and cogeneration system, the Danish. By assessing environmental and economic efficiency, the impact of governmental, market and managerial imperfections are estimated. The principal methodological base is the additive Data Envelopment Analysis model with extensions. The paper ends with some policy suggestions.

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    Authors: Mertz, Ole; Muller, Daniel; Sikor, Thomas; Hett, Cornelia; +24 Authors

    International climate negotiations have stressed the importance of considering emissions from forest degradation under the planned REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation + enhancing forest carbon stocks) mechanism. However, most research, pilot-REDD+ projects and carbon certification agencies have focused on deforestation and there appears to be a gap in knowledge on complex mosaic landscapes containing degraded forests, smallholder agriculture, agroforestry and plantations. In this paper we therefore review current research on how avoided forest degradation may affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and expected co-benefits in terms of biodiversity and livelihoods. There are still high uncertainties in measuring and monitoring emissions of carbon and other GHG from mosaic landscapes with forest degradation since most research has focused on binary analyses of forest vs. deforested land. Studies on the impacts of forest degradation on biodiversity contain mixed results and there is little empirical evidence on the influence of REDD+ on local livelihoods and tenure security, partly due to the lack of actual payment schemes. Governance structures are also more complex in landscapes with degraded forests as there are often multiple owners and types of rights to land and trees. Recent technological advances in remote sensing have improved estimation of carbon stock changes but establishment of historic reference levels is still challenged by the availability of sensor systems and ground measurements during the reference period. The inclusion of forest degradation in REDD+ calls for a range of new research efforts to enhance our knowledge of how to assess the impacts of avoided forest degradation. A first step will be to ensure that complex mosaic landscapes can be recognised under REDD+ on their own merits.

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    Agritrop
    Article . 2012
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    Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography
    Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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      Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography
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    Authors: Loïc Chalmandrier; Jonathan Lenoir; Martin A. Nuñez; Treena I. Burgess; +14 Authors

    AbstractRapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

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    Global Change Biology
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Global Change Biology
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  • Authors: Reinsch, S.; Koller, E.; Sowerby, A.; De Dato, G.; +17 Authors

    The data consists of annual measurements of standing aboveground plant biomass, annual aboveground net primary productivity and annual soil respiration between 1998 and 2012. Data were collected from seven European shrublands that were subject to the climate manipulations drought and warming. Sites were located in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), Denmark ( two sites, DK-B and DK-M), Hungary (HU), Spain (SP) and Italy (IT). All field sites consisted of untreated control plots, plots where the plant canopy air is artificially warmed during night time hours, and plots where rainfall is excluded from the plots at least during the plants growing season. Standing aboveground plant biomass (grams biomass per square metre) was measured in two undisturbed areas within the plots using the pin-point method (UK, DK-M, DK-B), or along a transect (IT, SP, HU, NL). Aboveground net primary productivity was calculated from measurements of standing aboveground plant biomass estimates and litterfall measurements. Soil respiration was measured in pre-installed opaque soil collars bi-weekly, monthly, or in measurement campaigns (SP only). The datasets provided are the basis for the data analysis presented in Reinsch et al. (2017) Shrubland primary production and soil respiration diverge along European climate gradient. Scientific Reports 7:43952 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep43952 Standing biomass was measured using the non-destructive pin-point method to assess aboveground biomass. Measurements were conducted at the state of peak biomass specific for each site. Litterfall was measured annually using litterfall traps. Litter collected in the traps was dried and the weight was measured. Aboveground biomass productivity was estimated as the difference between the measured standing biomass in year x minus the standing biomass measured the previous year. Soil respiration was measured bi-weekly or monthly, or in campaigns (Spain only). It was measured on permanently installed soil collars in treatment plots. The Gaussen Index of Aridity (an index that combines information on rainfall and temperature) was calculated using mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature. The reduction in precipitation and increase in temperature for each site was used to calculate the Gaussen Index for the climate treatments for each site. Data of standing biomass and soil respiration was provided by the site responsible. Data from all sites were collated into one data file for data analysis. A summary data set was combined with information on the Gaussen Index of Aridity Data were then exported from these Excel spreadsheet to .csv files for ingestion into the EIDC.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Hermanus Höfte; Hermanus Höfte; Jonatan U. Fangel; Simon J. McQueen-Mason; +6 Authors

    Significance Bioethanol produced from waste biomass from crops has the potential to provide a sustainable alternative to petroleum-based transportation fuel that does not compete with human food supply. The main obstacle to this approach is the resistance of this biomass to digestion. Thus, expensive energetic pretreatment and high enzyme inputs are needed to increase digestion. In this study, we screened a population of randomly mutated plants for digestibility with the aim of identifying novel factors that impact on this trait. We found a number of mutants with high digestibility and no impairments in growth or fitness. These mutants show a range of alterations in cell-wall composition, and we have mapped and characterized the mutant with the highest increase in digestibility.

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    ProdInra
    Article . 2014
    License: CC BY SA
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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      ProdInra
      Article . 2014
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      Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Miquel Ferrín; Laura Márquez; Henning Petersen; Sandrine Salmon; +14 Authors

    AbstractThe capacity to forecast the effects of climate change on biodiversity largely relies on identifying traits capturing mechanistic relationships with the environment through standardized field experiments distributed across relevant spatial scales. The effects of short‐term experimental manipulations on local communities may overlap with regional climate gradients that have been operating during longer time periods. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are no studies simultaneously assessing such long‐term macroecological drivers with local climate manipulations.We analysed this issue with springtails (Class Collembola), one of the dominant soil fauna groups, in a standardized climate manipulation experiment conducted across six European countries encompassing broad climate gradients. We combined community data (near 20K specimens classified into 102 species) with 22 eco‐morphological traits and reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships to track the evolution of adaptations to live at different soil depths, which is key to cope with desiccation. We then applied joint species distribution models to investigate the combined effect of the regional aridity gradient with the local experimental treatment (drought and warming) over the assembly of springtail communities and tested for significant trait–environment relationships mediating their community‐level responses.Our results show (1) a convergent evolution in all three major collembolan lineages of species adapted to inhabit at different soil strata; (2) a clear signature of aridity selecting traits of more epigeic species at a biogeographical scale and (3) the association of short‐term experimental drought with traits related to more euedaphic life‐forms.The hemiedaphic condition would be the plesiomorphic state for Collembola while the adaptations for an epigeic life would have been secondarily gained. Epigeic springtails are not only more resistant to drought, but also have a higher dispersal capacity that allows them to seek more favourable micro‐habitats after experiencing drier conditions. The observed relative edaphization of the springtail communities after short‐term experimental drought may thus be a transient community response.The disparity between macroecological trends and fast community‐level responses after climate manipulations highlights the need of simultaneously assessing long‐term and short‐term drivers at broad spatial scales to adequately interpret trait–environment relationships and better forecast biodiversity responses to climate change.Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.

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    Functional Ecology
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Functional Ecology
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Vermeulen, S; Zougmore, R B; Wollenberg, E; Thornton, P; +8 Authors

    To achieve food security for many in low-income and middle-income countries for whom this is already a challenge, especially with the additional complications of climate change, will require early investment to support smallholder farming systems and the associated food systems that supply poor consumers. We need both local and global policy-linked research to accelerate sharing of lessons on institutions, practices and technologies for adaptation and mitigation. This strategy paper briefly outlines how the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) of the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres (CGIAR) is working across research disciplines, organisational mandates, and spatial and temporal levels to assist immediate and longer-term policy actions.

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    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
    Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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      Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
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    Authors: S. Acharya; D. Adamová; A. Adler; G. Aglieri Rinella; +196 Authors

    The transverse-momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) spectra and coalescence parameters $B_2$ of (anti)deuterons are measured in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV for the first time in and out of jets. In this measurement, the direction of the leading particle with the highest $p_{\rm T}$ in the event ($p_{\rm T}^{\rm{ lead}} > 5$ GeV/$c$) is used as an approximation for the jet axis. The event is consequently divided into three azimuthal regions and the jet signal is obtained as the difference between the Toward region, that contains jet fragmentation products in addition to the underlying event (UE), and the Transverse region, which is dominated by the UE. The coalescence parameter in the jet is found to be approximately a factor of 10 larger than that in the underlying event. This experimental observation is consistent with the coalescence picture and can be attributed to the smaller average phase-space distance between nucleons inside the jet cone as compared to the underlying event. The results presented in this Letter are compared to predictions from a simple nucleon coalescence model, where the phase space distributions of nucleons are generated using PYTHIA 8 with the Monash 2013 tuning, and to predictions from a deuteron production model based on ordinary nuclear reactions with parametrized energy-dependent cross sections tuned on data. The latter model is implemented in PYTHIA 8.3. Both models reproduce the observed large difference between in-jet and out-of-jet coalescence parameters, although the almost flat trend of the $B^{\rm Jet}_2$ is not reproduced by the models, which instead give a decreasing trend. 18 pages, 2 captioned figures, authors from page 13, published version + fix from erratum, figures at http://alice-publications.web.cern.ch/node/8658

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    Physical Review Letters
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
    Article . 2022
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    Authors: Meyfroidt, Patrick; De Bremond, Ariane; Ryan, Casey M.; Archer, Emma; +47 Authors

    Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits—"win–wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

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    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.48350/16...
    Article . 2022
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/gqb...
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.48350/16...
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    Authors: Castagneto Gissey, Giorgio; Zakeri, Behnam; Dodds, Paul E.; Subkhankulova; +1 Authors

    Abstract The adoption of solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage by end users depends on their economic attractiveness, which is typically assessed with metrics of future cash flow such as Net Present Value (NPV). Yet analyses using NPV typically do not account for the evolution towards low-carbon electricity systems in the short and long term. We show this to be of critical importance for accurately calculating the profitability of these technologies. By linking an energy system model with a power system model, we observe substantial differences between NPV estimates calculated with and without representing potential evolutions of the electricity system. Our results suggest that not accounting for short- and long-run changes in the electricity system could underestimate the NPV of an investment in photovoltaic and storage by around 20%, especially in scenarios with high levels of renewables, moderate flexibility, and high electrification in the energy system. Using system-dependent cash flow metrics can have a major impact on end-users' energy technology profitability.

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    Energy Policy
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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2021
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    Energy Policy
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      Energy Policy
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    Authors: Agrell, Per J.; Bogetoft, Peter;

    District heating, the conversion of primary energy into distributed thermal energy and possible electric energy, is a challenge to regulate. In addition to the ever present asymmetric information in any sufficiently complex activity, some of the inputs for district heating, such as excess process heat, have arbitrary valuation. This study concerns the most developed European district heating and cogeneration system, the Danish. By assessing environmental and economic efficiency, the impact of governmental, market and managerial imperfections are estimated. The principal methodological base is the additive Data Envelopment Analysis model with extensions. The paper ends with some policy suggestions.

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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
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      Energy Policy
      Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Mertz, Ole; Muller, Daniel; Sikor, Thomas; Hett, Cornelia; +24 Authors

    International climate negotiations have stressed the importance of considering emissions from forest degradation under the planned REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation + enhancing forest carbon stocks) mechanism. However, most research, pilot-REDD+ projects and carbon certification agencies have focused on deforestation and there appears to be a gap in knowledge on complex mosaic landscapes containing degraded forests, smallholder agriculture, agroforestry and plantations. In this paper we therefore review current research on how avoided forest degradation may affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and expected co-benefits in terms of biodiversity and livelihoods. There are still high uncertainties in measuring and monitoring emissions of carbon and other GHG from mosaic landscapes with forest degradation since most research has focused on binary analyses of forest vs. deforested land. Studies on the impacts of forest degradation on biodiversity contain mixed results and there is little empirical evidence on the influence of REDD+ on local livelihoods and tenure security, partly due to the lack of actual payment schemes. Governance structures are also more complex in landscapes with degraded forests as there are often multiple owners and types of rights to land and trees. Recent technological advances in remote sensing have improved estimation of carbon stock changes but establishment of historic reference levels is still challenged by the availability of sensor systems and ground measurements during the reference period. The inclusion of forest degradation in REDD+ calls for a range of new research efforts to enhance our knowledge of how to assess the impacts of avoided forest degradation. A first step will be to ensure that complex mosaic landscapes can be recognised under REDD+ on their own merits.

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    Agritrop
    Article . 2012
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    Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography
    Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
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      Geografisk Tidsskrift-Danish Journal of Geography
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    Authors: Loïc Chalmandrier; Jonathan Lenoir; Martin A. Nuñez; Treena I. Burgess; +14 Authors

    AbstractRapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

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    Global Change Biology
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      Global Change Biology
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