• Energy Research
• Open Access close
• Closed Access close
• Embargo close
• 15. Life on land close
• 6. Clean water close
• GB close

Abstract Bioenergy crops are one of the renewable energy options available to decarbonise the energy sector in Scotland and help to achieve the overall planned target of 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. A process-based model for poplar and willow developed for simulating the effect of different environmental and management options on growth and biomass yield was used to estimate the GHG abatement potential (GHG-AP) under different crop management options in Scotland. The model results of annual wood yield did not show a strong relation with any of the environmental factors except that of initial soil organic carbon (SOC) content. Increasing plant density and decreasing harvest frequency increased GHG-AP. Application of N-fertilizers at a rate of 50–100 kg N ha−1 resulted in the buildup of carbon in soils with less than 180 Mg C ha−1. However, in soils with greater SOC contents, annual emissions resulting from N fertilizer application were greater than the carbon saving through marginal increases in wood yield and SOC changes. The best management scenario in terms of economic and environmental objectives depends on identifying an optimum plant density based on the site specific conditions with a fertilizer application of 20–100 kg ha−1 y−1 and a five year harvest interval. Even under the best economic scenarios, SRC willow and poplar have a GHG-AP ranging from 9.9 to 11.6 and 8.8–10.0 Mg CO2 eq. ha−1 y−1, respectively. Under the best environmental scenarios this range increases to 10.5- 13.2 and 9–11.1 Mg CO2 eq. ha−1 y−1 for willow and poplar, respectively.

Featured paper: See Editorial p553

AbstractThe Green Revolution is often seen as epitomising the dawn of scientific and technological advancement and modernity in the agricultural sector across developing countries, a process that unfolded from the 1940s through to the 1980s. Despite the time that has elapsed, this episode of the past continues to resonate today, and still shapes the institutions and practices of agricultural science and technology. In Brazil, China, and India, narratives of science-led agricultural transformations portray that period in glorifying terms—entailing pressing national imperatives, unprecedented achievements, and heroic individuals or organizations. These “epic narratives” draw on the past to produce meaning and empower the actors that deploy them. Epic narratives are reproduced over time and perpetuate a conviction about the heroic power of science and technology in agricultural development. By crafting history and cultivating a sense of scientific nationalism, exceptionalism, and heritage, these epic narratives sustain power-knowledge relations in agricultural science and technology, which are underpinned by a hegemonic modernization paradigm. Unravelling the processes of assemblage and reproduction of epic narratives helps us make sense of how science and technology actors draw on their subjective representations of the past to assert their position in the field at present. This includes making claims about their credentials to envision and deliver sustainable solutions for agriculture into the future.

Summary1. Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds, which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds, are more likely to be in decline, because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance, because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites.2. Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990–2000) and Nearctic (1980–2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations, along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends.3. In the Nearctic, phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted, but in the Palaearctic, distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species’ declines, but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic.4. Differences in geography and so average migration distance, migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic.

Spatial planning has to deal with trade-offs between various stakeholders’ wishes and needs as part of planning and management of landscapes, natural resources and/or biodiversity. To make ecosystem services (ES) trade-off research more relevant for spatial planning, we propose an analytical framework,which puts stakeholders, their land-use/management choices, their impact on ES and responses at the centre. Based on 24 cases from around the world, we used this framing to analyse the appearance and diversity of real-world ES trade-offs. They cover a wide range of trade-offs related to ecosystem use, including: land-use change, management regimes, technical versus nature-based solutions, natural resource use, and management of species. The ES trade-offs studied featured a complexity that was far greater than what is often described in the ES literature. Influential users and context setters are at the core of the trade-off decision-making, but most of the impact is felt by non-influential users. Provisioning and cultural ES were the most targeted in the studied trade-offs, but regulating ES were the most impacted. Stakeholders’ characteristics, such as influence, impact faced, and concerns can partially explain their position and response in relation to trade-offs. Based on the research findings, we formulate recommendations for spatial planning.

AbstractVegetation growth is affected by past growth rates and climate variability. However, the impacts of vegetation growth carryover (VGC; biotic) and lagged climatic effects (LCE; abiotic) on tree stem radial growth may be decoupled from photosynthetic capacity, as higher photosynthesis does not always translate into greater growth. To assess the interaction of tree‐species level VGC and LCE with ecosystem‐scale photosynthetic processes, we utilized tree‐ring width (TRW) data for three tree species: Castanopsis eyrei (CE), Castanea henryi (CH, Chinese chinquapin), and Liquidambar formosana (LF, Chinese sweet gum), along with satellite‐based data on canopy greenness (EVI, enhanced vegetation index), leaf area index (LAI), and gross primary productivity (GPP). We used vector autoregressive models, impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition to analyze the duration, intensity, and drivers of VGC and of LCE response to precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration. The results showed that at the tree‐species level, VGC in TRW was strongest in the first year, with an average 77% reduction in response intensity by the fourth year. VGC and LCE exhibited species‐specific patterns; compared to CE and CH (diffuse‐porous species), LF (ring‐porous species) exhibited stronger VGC but weaker LCE. For photosynthetic capacity at the ecosystem scale (EVI, LAI, and GPP), VGC and LCE occurred within 96 days. Our study demonstrates that VGC effects play a dominant role in vegetation function and productivity, and that vegetation responses to previous growth states are decoupled from climatic variability. Additionally, we discovered the possibility for tree‐ring growth to be decoupled from canopy condition. Investigating VGC and LCE of multiple indicators of vegetation growth at multiple scales has the potential to improve the accuracy of terrestrial global change models.

This study investigates potential changes in erosion rates in the Midwestern United States under climate change, including the adaptation of crop management to climate change. Previous studies of erosion under climate change have not taken into account farmer choices of crop rotations or planting dates, which will adjust to compensate for climate change. In this study, changes in management were assigned based on previous studies of crop yield, optimal planting date, and most profitable rotations under climate change in the Midwestern United States. Those studies predicted future shifts from maize and wheat to soybeans based on price and yield advantages to soybeans. In the results of our simulations, for 10 of 11 regions of the study area runoff increased from +10% to +310%, and soil loss increased from +33% to +274%, in 2040–2059 relative to 1990–1999. Soil loss changes were more variable compared to studies that did not take into account changes in management. Increased precipitation and decreasing cover from temperature-stressed maize were important factors in the results. The soil erosion model appeared to underestimate the impact of change in crop type, particularly to soybeans, meaning that erosion increases could be even higher than simulated. This research shows that future crop management changes due to climate and economics can affect the magnitude of erosional impacts beyond that which would be predicted from direct climate change